2024 NFL Playoffs Predictions: 20 Teams That Could Make It

Bill Barnwell, editor at ESPNSeptember 4, 2024, 6:25 a.m. ET
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In the last week before the NFL season think we know the most, and that makes it the perfect time to pick playoff teams for the upcoming season. With no real football to pick apart or process for the past nearly seven months, opinions are solidifying about what's going to happen. We know the sexy Super Bowl pick, the surprise contender that's about to make the jump, and the teams that are sure to return to the postseason.

And then Week 1 comes and all our feelings are thrown out the window. What we thought this time last year didn't matter for long. The Jets were the prevalent Super Bowl favorite, and that lasted for four offensive snaps. The Bengals had the fourth-highest odds of making the postseason after two consecutive deep runs, and a crushing Week 1 loss to the Browns signaled that the AFC North was not going to be a walk in the park. Six of the 15 teams with the lowest Super Bowl odds before the 2023 season didn't even make the postseason.

On the other hand, underdogs that would have been dismissed as potential playoff teams before the season have made it. The Buccaneers, who watched a quarterback battle between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask during the offseason, had the sixth-highest odds of making the Super Bowl when the season began. They made the playoffs. The Rams, the 24th-ranked team on ESPN's Football Power Index, have made it. Before the season, I observed that 14 of the 16 AFC teams actively competed as if they expected to make the postseason. The two teams excluded from that group – the Colts and Texans – both earned wins and essentially entered Week 18 in a play-in game for the AFC South crown.

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A year ago, it would have been ridiculous to say at this time that the 3-13-1 Texans would make the playoffs and the 12-4 Bengals would miss them, but that's exactly what happened. We're often too conservative in expecting teams that made the playoffs last year to be back the following season. The league is evolving faster than we all expect.

Since the league switched to the 14-team playoff format in 2020, only about half of the teams that make the postseason return the following season. Seven franchises that made the playoffs in 2020 are back in 2021. The same number returned in 2022, while eight teams that made it then were back last season. That's an average of 7.3 teams per season.

That's a small sample size, but if we look back to 2002 and the start of the league's 32-team era and project which teams would have made the playoffs as the 7th seed if there were 14 teams, the numbers don't change much. Even acknowledging that teams would have reacted differently later in the season if a potential playoff spot had been available, an average of 7.9 teams would have made it back to the playoffs in a 14-team system. If we're generous and round up, that means eight teams stay, six teams are eliminated, and six new teams take their place.

What if we put together a playoff field like this and pick six teams that won't make the postseason? Which six teams are out? And which six will take their place? I'm going to take that challenge. I'll start by going through the eight teams I expect to return, identify the six I predict won't be there, and finally pick six that missed the playoffs last year but should make it this season.

I don't think my predictions were as bold as the Texans being a playoff team at 3-13-1, but I'm sure there will be a surprise or two along the way. (Playoffs odds are valid at the time of publication and are provided by ESPN BET. The odds of making the playoffs come from ESPN's Football Power Index.)