Oil price faces heavy weekly losses despite OPEC+ delaying barrel increase

(Bloomberg) — Oil prices are set for one of their biggest weekly losses this year, even as OPEC+ postponed a planned production increase.

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Brent traded at about $73 a barrel on Friday, down more than 7 percent for the week, while West Texas Intermediate was at about $69. Key members of the OPEC+ coalition will not increase their production by 180,000 barrels a day in October and November.

Nevertheless, a longer-term plan aimed at reviving 2.2 million barrels of idle stocks per day over a one-year period remained, but the completion date was pushed back by two months to December 2025.

“One wonders when patience might run out if one deliberately gives up market share with no return in sight,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage firm PVM, in a report.

Brent futures have been trending lower since early July as concerns about the economies of China and the US – the two biggest oil consumers – have fuelled fears about demand. Crude oil production in the world's largest economy has also risen steadily in recent years, putting supply pressure on global balance sheets.

The bottom line is that even the delay in OPEC+ and a nearly 7 million barrel-per-week drop in U.S. crude inventories failed to significantly boost oil prices. Next week's monthly market outlooks from OPEC, the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will be closely watched.

“We expect the delay in the OPEC+ unwinding, as well as ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning, to support the price at $70-$72 Brent,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Eric Lee said in a note. The bank said it expects “a move down to the $60 area in 2025 as a significant market excess builds.”

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