If the Patriots have a tough season, it's not the “millionaire tax” that's to blame

Belichick even seemed to find an argument in the business groups that fought tooth and nail against the controversial tax, sending people flocking to states without income tax like Florida and Nevada. I wonder where he got that from? Belichick's former boss and Patriots owner Robert Kraft was among the business heavyweights who donated $1 million to the campaign to stop the tax hike, which eventually passed by referendum in 2022.

Of course, Belichick's whining sounds hollow when you consider that the millionaire tax only applied in his last year as coach.

I don't have to be a sports columnist to know that the Patriots weren't the same without quarterback Tom Brady. Gone are the days when the team could offer low odds to players who knew they would be playing alongside a GOAT who could lead them to the Super Bowl.

Perhaps Kraft knew better than anyone what the millionaire tax would mean for his bottom line. He would have to start shelling out for top players if he ever wanted to make the playoffs again.

How much more? I asked Robert Raiola, an accountant who specializes in professional athletes' tax returns, to run some numbers. Here's what he came up with: Suppose an NFL free agent has narrowed his options to the Miami Dolphins and the Patriots. If he signs a three-year, $24 million contract with the Patriots, he'll pay about $2.2 million in taxes to the state over the life of the contract. If he signs the same contract with the Dolphins, he'll pay just over $100,000 in taxes to the state.

It's no exaggeration to say that the millionaire tax is a factor in negotiations, but it is one of countless factors – from a team's Super Bowl chances to the weather – that determine where a player might end up.

“It's different for everyone … but taxes are a factor,” said Raiola, a director in the sports and entertainment group at national accounting firm PKF O'Connor Davies LLP, which has an office in Boston and represents Massachusetts athletes. “It's not the most important factor, but it's definitely on the short list of factors to consider when players are free agents.”

When it comes to taxing NFL players, Massachusetts isn't the highest-taxed state. While the millionaire tax catapulted the state from the middle of the pack to the top third of NFL targets, the Patriots still don't crack the top 10 of the league's 32 teams in local and state taxes, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, a Washington think tank that tracks tax policy.

The players with the highest tax burden live and play in California (San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers), followed by New Jersey (home of the New York Jets and Giants). Even players on the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers pay more taxes than the Patriots.

The difference can be enormous. For example, a player earning $10 million on a California team will pay about $1.3 million in taxes – about $400,000 more than a Patriots player earning the same amount in Massachusetts.

But these days, you can't buy affection for this Patriots team.

“Does that mean New England has signed [All-Pro wide receiver] Brandon Aiyuk without the millionaire tax? I don't know. He wasn't willing to pay more money than the 49ers paid to keep him,” said Jared Walczak, vice president of state projects at the Tax Foundation. “It's hard to say whether income taxes predict who makes the playoffs. What you can say is that teams in states with lower income taxes will have a little more ability to sign the players they want.”

Sometimes it's hard to understand how a few hundred thousand dollars can make a difference to athletes who sign multimillion-dollar contracts. But the average professional athlete's career lasts less than four years, so what they earn has to last a lifetime, explains John Karaffa, managing director of ProSport CPA, a Virginia-based accounting firm that serves about 1,500 professional athletes.

“Taxes are their biggest expense,” Karaffa said. “They work with us to optimize their tax situation because they're trying to preserve as much as they can while they can while they're in those peak income years, because it has to last 50, 60, 70 years in some cases.”

Karaffa offers some familiar advice for those looking to reduce their tax burden. At the very least, professional athletes can get relief on endorsements and capital gains by living in a place where there is no income tax.

“Live in New Hampshire,” he said.

For now, there is only one winner: the Massachusetts budget. The millionaires' tax exceeded initial projections, raising $2.2 billion in revenue in the fiscal year that ended June 30.

And that has nothing to do with why the Patriots may suffer a lot of losses this season.

Shirley Leung is a business columnist and host of the Globe Opinion podcast “Say More with Shirley Leung.” You can find the podcast on Apple, SpotifyAnd globe.com/saymore. Follow her on Threads @shirley02186

Shirley Leung is a business columnist. You can reach her at [email protected].