Tropical cyclone could form in Gulf of Mexico as hurricane season reaches its peak

MIAMI- After monitoring four different disturbances in the Atlantic basin for possible tropical development, attention is now turning to a tropical disturbance targeting the southern Gulf of Mexico just as the hurricane season reaches its climatological peak on September 10.

The disturbance spent more than a week traveling across the Atlantic as a tropical wave, clinging to a disorganized collection of showers and thunderstorms as it struggled to find favorable conditions for its development.

That remains the case as the disturbance is currently near Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. However, the wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could come into contact with a frontal boundary, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system could gain enough strength to develop into a tropical depression early to mid-next week as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said. The agency has now given the disturbance a medium probability of developing over the next week — its highest rating in several days.

Invest 90L: No longer a tropical threat, but still a flood risk

Meanwhile, another disturbance that has been keeping the Gulf Coast under water for days is no longer in danger of developing into a tropical depression.

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The system, labeled Invest 90L on Thursday, now has a 0% chance of developing but will continue to dump several inches of rain on the Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi coasts. The system will likely lose its Invest designation soon but will remain an eyesore along the Gulf Coast over the weekend, eventually spreading its rain across a larger swath of Florida.

Invest 99L: A burgeoning storm, but not a tropical one

The low pressure center that formed off the East Coast and was designated Invest 99L by the NHC earlier this week is strengthening but retains traditional storm characteristics and lacks subtropical dynamics.

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The storm is now history for the NHC, but the Canadian Maritime Provinces still have to contend with a storm that is expected to bring strong winds and gale warnings.

The storm is well off the coast of the United States, but is expected to bring heavy surf and dangerous rip currents to the New England coast.

Tropical waves in the Atlantic have little chance of developing

The only other tropical area of ​​interest is far out in the Atlantic, where the NHC is keeping an eye on an elongated low-pressure system.

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Currently, the low pressure trough is not producing much, but there is a small chance of slow development as the low pressure trough moves into the central tropical Atlantic over the next week.