Texas vs. Michigan Prediction: College Football Odds, Tips

On Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines host the Texas Longhorns in an exciting non-conference game at The Big House.

The defending champions are more than just a touchdown underdog in their home game against the Longhorns, after Texas was considered a field goal favorite in the preview markets for most of the summer.

What can we learn from these teams' performances in Week 1? And what is the betting value in this matchup? Let's dive in.

Odds for Texas vs. Michigan

When Texas has the ball

It's hard to imagine Texas running the ball successfully in this matchup without the services of star running back CJ Baxter, who suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year.

Michigan has the best defensive line in the country, backed by future NFL starters Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.

If the Wolverines can consistently force the Longhorns to attempt passes, the game could come down to how Quinn Ewers handles Michigan's relentless blitz under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.

Ewers only earned a PFF passing grade of 64.6 against the Lightning last year, ranking 77th out of 153 qualified passers.

Texas has a handful of dynamic pass-catching options, but Ewers is still working on chemistry with a new group full of transfers.

The Wolverines are integrating some new starters into the secondary, but the presence of lockdown cornerback Will Johnson provides stability in the group.

When Michigan has the ball

Davis Warren had a solid, if uninspiring, debut as Michigan's starting quarterback.

Last week against Fresno State, he had just one turnover, and he lost the ball quickly, averaging just 2.17 seconds per attempt. He also had just one sack despite being pressured seven times.

Colston Loveland should play an important role again this week after catching eight passes for 87 yards and a touchdown.

He is a tight end who can move in the chain and is a reliable option for the middle of the field.

The Longhorns lost star defensive linemen Byron Murphy II and T'Vondre Sweat to the NFL, and their absence was notable last week as Colorado State had a 53% success rate on running plays, which is above the national average.

Michigan's offensive line is still being built with five new starters, but the Wolverines should have some success on the ground.

Kalel Mullings is expected to play a significant role going forward after averaging 4.3 yards after contact last week.

After a quiet first week, Alex Orji should also play an important role in the read option game.

Texas vs. Michigan tip

Michigan has a record of 41-3 since Week 1 of the 2021 season and has the second-longest home winning streak in the country with 23 consecutive wins at the Big House.

However, the betting market assumes that this is the end of the line.

With a home catch value of +7.5, Michigan hasn't been such a big underdog at home since playing Ohio State in 2019.

Action Network's Colin Wilson is making a Texas -3 spread bet for this game, a line that has been available in the forward markets most of the summer.

Betting on the NFL?

The market has overreacted to the results of the first week and I am betting on the Wolverines, who will be in a rare situation as home underdogs on Saturday.

Best bet: Michigan +7.5 (+100, FanDuel)