Auburn vs. Cal Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

Due to conference realignment, it is now an SEC-ACC game, making it the second home-and-away game between Auburn and Cal in the second week of college football on Saturday.

After a sluggish offensive performance last season, Auburn got a good taste of Hugh Freeze's recruiting efforts when Payton Thorne and a group of top-notch receivers combined for 628 yards and 73 points in the season opener against Alabama A&M.

KeAndre Lambert Smith, a transfer from Penn State, scored two touchdowns, while Perry Thompson and Cam Coleman each scored a touchdown and Auburn's pass receiving performance averaged 25 yards per catch.

There are some concerns about Cal running back Jaydn Ott's participation in Saturday's game after he suffered a lower-body injury in the opener, but head coach Justin Wilcox called it “likely” that his key player will play against Auburn, a good sign for the Golden Bears.

What can we expect from this matchup? To do that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Auburn and Cal compare ahead of Week 2's college football game.

The simulations assume that the Tigers will hold their serve in the Jordan-Hare game against the ACC challenger.

SP+ predicts Auburn to defeat Cal by a projected score of 36 to 21 and win the game by a projected 14.8 points.

The model gives Auburn a solid 82 percent chance of winning, regardless of the margin.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

According to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Auburn is the favorite to beat California by 12.5 points, giving the game a total of 53.5 points.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Auburn at -465 and for Cal at +350.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis models also predict a home win for the Tigers this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Auburn is projected to win in an overwhelming 81.4 percent of computer simulations, while Cal is expected to win in the remaining 18.6 percent of simulations.

The index predicts that with both teams currently playing on the same field, Auburn will be 9.8 points better than Cal, which is not enough to make up that difference.

According to computer calculations, Auburn will win 7.4 games this season and has a 16.8 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs.

According to the index, Cal is expected to win 6.3 games this season, giving the Golden Bears a 65.4 percent chance of qualifying for the bowl.

When: Saturday, September 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT, 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN2 Network

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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