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Trump claims Harris' rallies are smaller. We counted them.

Kalina Borkiewicz, Malika Khurana, Karthik Patanjali and Bedel Saget

The huge support that Vice President Kamala Harris has received at her rallies has unnerved former President Donald J. Trump, who for years has emphasized and frequently exaggerated the size of his crowds. He has said – often repeating untruths – that his crowds are much larger than Ms. Harris's, and the Harris campaign has responded with its own jibes about the enthusiasm of Trump rallygoers.

We visited six rallies – all the campaign events held by the candidates during a three-week period in August – in six states and took photos, video and 360-degree footage to analyze what claims about crowd sizes hold water. The analysis found that, despite Trump's claims, both candidates draw comparatively large crowds.

On a Friday night, Trump attracted 11,500 people to the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. This is what it looked like:

Photographs and composition by Kalina Borkiewicz and Karthik Patanjali

On a Tuesday night during the week-long Democratic National Convention in late August, Ms. Harris drew 12,800 people to a campaign rally at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Here is a scene from the rally:

Photographs and composition by Malika Khurana and Bedel Saget

At the four other campaign rallies attended by The Times, attendance was similarly good, with spectators generally filling the space allocated for the event. The rallies were held in venues with a maximum capacity of 6,800 to 19,300 people, although in some cases seating areas were cordoned off and additional seating or standing space was set up.

Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, August 17

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images (Las Vegas), Christian Monterrosa/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images (Savannah), Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images (Bozeman), Doug Mills/The New York Times (Wilkes-Barre)

For each of the six events, the Times counted the number of people seen in the footage taken immediately after each candidate began speaking, including people in poorly lit and darkened areas. This number does not take into account people who may have left before the footage was taken or who arrived late.

Estimated crowds at campaign events

Harris

Sat., 10 August Las Vegas 6,200
Tue, 20 August Milwaukee, Wisconsin. 12,800
Thu, 29 August Savannah, Georgia. 6,200

Trump

Fri., 9 August Bozeman, Montana. 4,300
Sat., 17 August Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania. 5,900
Fri., 23 August Glendale, Arizona. 11,500

Experts say the size of the crowd at rallies does not directly affect the election victory or defeat. For one thing, organizers may strategically choose small-capacity venues, such as university buildings, where only a few hundred people can attend. The day of the week and time of day can also affect the size of the crowd and when they arrive or leave.

Still, crowd size has been a sensitive issue for Mr. Trump throughout his political career, and his fixation on it has intensified recently as enthusiasm for the new Democratic slate has grown. Mr. Trump falsely claimed that photographs of the crowds at Ms. Harris's events were doctored using artificial intelligence.

In response, the Harris team released a video compilation of moments during Trump's rallies in which audience members can be seen yawning. In a separate post on Truth Social, they also wrote that members of Trump's audience left the Pennsylvania event early, “leaving even more empty seats.”

The Times found that people left two of Trump's three events early, including during his speech.

Photos taken during Trump's rallies show where people left their seats. Below is a series of photos from his August 17 rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, taken 13 minutes and just over an hour after he began his speech.

Examples of crowd thinning during Trump's speech in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.

Malika Khurana and Karthik Patanjali

And this shows where the seats emptied an hour after Trump began his speech at the August 23 rally in Glendale, Arizona.

Examples of crowd thinning during Trump's speech in Glendale, Arizona.

Kalina Borkiewicz and Karthik Patanjali

The longer duration of a Trump event compared with a Harris event may have contributed to a larger number of early departures. Attendees at Trump rallies tended to arrive earlier in the day, and opening remarks tended to start earlier and last longer. At the six rallies The Times attended, Mr. Trump spoke four times as long as Ms. Harris.

How long did the demonstrations last?

Note: The start time of each rally depends on the scheduled door opener.

The New York Times

Although there is only a limited connection between crowd size and election results, the very public exchange of blows between the two campaign teams over this metric suggests that it has at least some political significance.

Large, enthusiastic crowds can also help motivate the candidate during his or her speech, says Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University. They can also contribute to a “bandwagon effect,” showing those not present in person that enthusiasm for a candidate is genuine.

“Even though I don't think these events change people's minds, they do make them feel like they're not alone,” said Betsy Reiser, 62, who attended a rally for Harris in Savannah, Georgia. “It's very important to feel like you belong.”

The Times took 360-degree photos of the rallies every two minutes from the time the doors opened until the end of the events, and panoramic photos every 15 minutes. To estimate crowd size, the Times counted the people in a single panoramic photo just before or during the candidate's speech, when the crowd was expected to be at its largest. The number was then rounded to the nearest hundred.

Note: Green dots represent the people Times reporters manually counted in the arena.

Graphics by Kalina Borkiewicz, photography and composition by Malika Khurana and Bedel Saget

Areas obscured by our cameras were photographed and analyzed separately, then combined with the main count where necessary. The photos were compiled into a single composite image showing a 360-degree view of the arena. Timestamps from the photos, which were matched to official campaign information and recorded broadcasts, were used to determine speaking time.