Mississippi State vs. Arizona State Prediction – Best College Football Picks for Week 2

To close out Week 2, Mississippi State makes the long trip west tonight to face Arizona State.

Both teams performed well in their season openers and built up their points, and our predictions for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State predict a similar offensive performance.

For more information, check out my college football picks for Saturday, September 7.

Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State

My best bet
Over 59.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

This is a funny one.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs' offense looked outstanding in Week 1 against inferior competition, but that means something. Young, first-year head coach Jeff Lebby was brought to Starkville to bring back the dynamic passing offense Mississippi State is known for, a reputation he built at various stops, including as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma. That was against Eastern Kentucky, when Mississippi State was responsible for eight of his 62 explosive plays.

I expect this to continue and for Arizona State to do their part. I'm tipping it to be over and expecting fireworks for a bright night show out west.

After zero continuity last season, the Sun Devils may have found their quarterback in former four-star recruit Sam Leavitt. He was one of 30 transfers to join the team in the offseason and made an impressive impression last weekend. Levitt, who transferred from Michigan State, showed the versatility of his game by scoring two touchdowns on passes for 250 yards and running for 47 yards on the ground. Both aspects are concerning for the Bulldogs, especially the long ball. Levitt managed several passes for 20 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown. This is a Bulldogs defense that was pretty average in the entire SEC but allowed the fourth-most passes of 30 or more yards in the conference. I worry that's still a problem.

As for the Sun Devils' defense, it's almost impossible to comprehend how much it has improved. Wyoming was expected to perform much better, but it also saw a coaching change for the first time since 2014. It makes you wonder how much that played a role last week, and it still made me stick with some of my predictions from last season. Those predictions? It was a defense that allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt and had one of the worst marks in the Pac-12 at 263 yards per game through the air.

That's alarming when you're playing against Lebby. Especially with Blake Shapen at center. He had ups and downs last year, but finished the season with over 300 yards and three of the last four games. The long ball seemed to be there in the first game too, when he threw three touchdowns on a 75% passing percentage before being taken out of the game early due to a blowout.

Neither defense has shown an ability to slow down explosive plays, and both have capable quarterbacks who can exploit that in different ways. I expect it to be very competitive, with both teams looking to score points. I'm calling it the over.

Mississippi State vs. Arizona State – Same Game Accumulator (SGP)

Over 59.5

Sam Leavitt Over 224.5 Passing Yards

Blake Shapen: 30+ rushing yards

Our same game parlay bet is all about the quarterbacks as we combine two legs with our best bet for this same game parlay bet.

The first of these is Leavitt getting over 224.5 yards passing. As I mentioned before, Mississippi State's defense is by and large average and didn't impress me much in the offseason. This game should have opportunities to get the ball further down the field to several speedy options in Arizona State's receiver core. Add in the fact that Arizona State trailed for at least part of this game in most plays, and there's a good chance Leavitt surpasses a number he easily surpassed last week with just 14 completed passes.

Rounding things out is QB Blake Shapen, who provides relief on the ground. We like two things about this play. First, we shouldn't worry too much about negative plays. Even against an inferior offensive line, Arizona State was only able to get to the QB three times. Against an SEC-level offensive line, they may not even be able to do that. Second, Shapen's legs are a real problem here. The Sun Devils let opposing QBs run 50 yards or more in two of their final four games last season. With seven scheduled runs for Shapen last week, the Bulldogs appear ready to exploit that weakness.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi State vs Arizona State Odds

Live odds for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State

Opening odds for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State

• Spread: Mississippi State +2.5 | Arizona State -2.5
• Money line: Mississippi State +190 | Arizona State -230
• Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Spread and Over/Under Analysis for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State

• Arizona State has never defeated an SEC opponent in school history, finishing 0-5 in previous attempts.
• Mississippi State finished last season with a terrible streak, losing four of its final five games and having just one cover ATS.
• Things went only slightly better for Arizona State, which won two of its last five games and scored in two ATS.
• The odds shifted significantly in Arizona State's favor, about one field goal higher than the team's starting number at the beginning of the month.

What you need to know about the betting trend between Mississippi State and Arizona State

Mississippi State has achieved Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 units / 20% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State here.

Match info Mississippi State vs. Arizona State

Mississippi State vs. Arizona State – latest injuries

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