Jon Macri's favorites for 2024

Smith-Njigba appears poised for a big sophomore year after showing off his talent and potential as a rookie in an offense that failed to fully utilize him as the weapon he was expected to be in 2023. Smith-Njigba totaled 90 faceoffs in 17 games, but had the sixth-lowest average depth of target (6.4 yards) in the league. As a result, his yards per route run (1.32) were outside the top 50 at his position, as was his total receiving yards (628). It's worth noting that he played the first few games of the season with a cast on his wrist.

Smith-Njigba ranked in the 99th percentile in breakup rate on throws of 10+ yards (53%) as a draft prospect since 2019 and averaged a career high of 96 yards per route run (3.32) at Ohio State. Smith-Njigba's profile and success after college must be considered when assessing his breakout potential in the NFL, as he will only be 22 years old this season and still has plenty of potential for Seattle's new coaching staff to unlock in year two.

The Seahawks have stated multiple times this offseason that they expect big things from Smith-Njigba in his second year, as he is expected to be a key part of their offense in 2024. This is important because this is a new coaching staff that was not involved in signing Smith-Njigba in 2023. The fact that the coaches see how he can be used and understand that he will be key to the team's offensive success is very encouraging for 2024.

It is still up to the coaching staff, especially offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, to use Smith-Njigba more effectively. Staying on the field will be a crucial part of that, considering that DK Metcalf And Tyler Lockett are also more than capable NFL wide receivers. Grubb's Washington Huskies have spent far more than the average FBS money on 11 players over the last two seasons, bringing in players like Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk And Jalen McMillan everything at once and successfully. Pete Carroll's Seahawks were about average for the league in this regard last season.

Ideally, Smith-Njigba will play in front of Lockett in two-receiver sets, which would coincide with the younger, up-and-coming wide receiver replacing an older and weakening wide receiver. Smith-Njigba has been treated as a potential WR3 in my rankings, as opposed to the low-end WR4 he is currently being drafted as.

WR JAYLEN WADDLE, MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Sleeper ADP: WR18
• My rank: WR14

Waddle enters the fourth year of his NFL career after a relatively weak season in terms of fantasy production in 2023, where he missed time due to injuries. He finished the year as the PPR WR29 overall, despite finishing as the WR8 in 2022 and the WR12 as a rookie in 2021. Playing time played a big role in that, as he missed three games and set a new career low in routes run (385), which was about 140 routes below his previous career low. Even for a player as efficient as Waddle, dropping to a new career low in offensive snap percentage (68%) when he was on the field, largely due to his injuries, played a significant role in his chance of posting WR1 numbers. Hopefully he'll be healthy this season and get closer to his 78.5% snap percentage from the last two years combined, which will play a big role in realizing his WR1 potential.

One of the biggest obstacles for Waddle is that he has to compete for targets with one of the top three wide receivers. Tyreek Hill. Fortunately, there is evidence that Waddle can still achieve elite target share and put up WR1 numbers with Hill in the lineup, which was evident last year when Waddle posted a 27.0% target rate, ranking sixth among all wide receivers. His 2.63 yards per route run is also sixth at his position, giving him two big advantages in providing potential WR1 production. Even Waddle's 2.61 yards per route run since 2022 is the third-best mark among all wide receivers during that time period, behind only Hill (3.49) and Justin Jefferson (2.72). His 24.0% target rate over that time period ranks 17th and right at the top of the required 25%, which we want to combine with the 2.50 yards per route run threshold – both of which Waddle will reach in 2023.

Waddle is currently dealing with a calf injury that hopefully won't hamper him for the entire season and cause his value to drop again. Assuming Waddle can get healthy again and play his normal snap percentage would help him earn a top-12 spot at his position.

RB JAMES CONNER, ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Sleeper ADP: RB20
• My rank: RB19

Conner is coming off the best season of his career, having ranked among the top 10 running backs in PFF rushing grade (88.4), yards after contact per attempt (3.93), missed tackles per attempt (0.29) and first down plus touchdown rate (27.4%). Impressively, he did that last season behind the 26th-ranked run-blocking unit, and the hope is that he can continue to do so with the addition of Jonah Williams And Evan Brown in addition to the sixth overall pick in 2023 Paris Johnson The development in the second year will lead to better play in the trenches.

Conner averaged 17.3 chances per game (15.1 runs and 2.3 targets) last season, which was well above average for the position. But to maintain that workload, he'll have to keep Trey Benson – a third-round rookie – in check and not allow him to be more than a backup.

Conner was at the goal line the most last season – 52% of team runs and 54% of red zone runs. That's a promising sign that the team will continue to use him in high-profile fantasy situations, especially if the Cardinals can overachieve in that regard this season.

Although Conner's ADP has slowly increased in the offseason, there is still some hesitation among drafters about targeting the 29-year-old running back despite him having his career-best year in 2023. However, for those who tend to discount the position overall, Conner has a strong profile as a late-round starting prospect with the ability to work toward a top-12 pick in any given week.

Thank you, JAKE FERGUSON, DALLAS COWBOYS

• Sleeping car ADP: TE11
• My rank: TE9

Ferguson may have to compete with last season’s overall goal leader (179) and Fantasy WR1, CeeDee LambHowever, with the team having no other significant competition for his goals, there is reason to be optimistic that he can even improve on his strong 2023 season.

Ferguson finished top 10 among tight ends in targets (96), receptions (71) and receiving yards (761), despite Lamb's stellar performance as a wide receiver. The Cowboys' top-notch offense led the league in red zone plays last season, resulting in a league-leading 36 passing touchdowns. Somehow, Ferguson caught just five of those touchdown passes despite ranking in the top five at his position in red zone targets per game (1.4) and sixth in overall red zone target rate (20.6%). If that performance continues this season, Ferguson has room to improve his touchdown total in 2024.

Dallas relied heavily on Ferguson as the second-best target receiver for most of the year, especially after the team's off week when he increased his playing time from 66% of Dallas' offensive snaps to 83% for the rest of the year. During that stretch and into the playoffs, Ferguson only received fewer than six passes three times in those 12 games, with his best game coming in the playoffs when he received 12 passes and caught 10 for 93 yards and three touchdowns. This coincidentally went hand in hand with 18 passes for Lamb in that game. Ferguson and Lamb are expected to be the Cowboys' dynamic duo once again, and Ferguson has the best chance to increase his value in the third year of his NFL career.