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Big 12 Chaos Meter: Colorado's trip to Nebraska could be revealing

With eight new members in the last two years and the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, no (existing) power conference has changed as much as the Big 12. One thing that shouldn't change is the jockeying that erupts in the league race, with the gap between the best and worst teams perhaps the smallest of any league in the country.

To keep you entertained with something crazy every week, we're introducing you to the Big 12 Chaos Meter. Each week this season, we'll highlight the good, the bad, and the silly in the conference that's constantly “open for business.”

Big 12 Chaos Meter of the first week: 1/5 🤯

Things won't be so harmless this year. The top four teams in the preseason poll – Utah, Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma State – were able to record clear victories in Week 1. Only two teams lost in non-conference games.

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The Big 12 champion will likely automatically enter the league as one of the top five ranked conference champions. Will the league field more than one team? A check-in on the race after Week 1:

📈Upward trend: Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, UCF

📉Downward trend: West Virginia, Texas Tech

📝Tasks to be completed: Arizona, Colorado, TCU, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati

❌Eliminated: Houston

👀Keep an eye on the following: State of Iowa, State of Arizona

The chaos potential of the second week

While we haven't gotten to the Big 12 games yet, 11 of the league's teams are playing a power conference opponent, including two Big 12 teams facing off in a non-conference game (yes, that's right). Let's rank the Big 12's top Week 2 matchups based on potential absurdity.

High potential for chaos

Texas Tech in Washington State

This game has a “Pac-12 After Dark” vibe. It's the Mike Leach (RIP) Bowl, and the Cougars paid tribute this week to the late Leach, who coached the two programs for a total of 18 years.

The Red Raiders talked a lot this (and last) offseason, only to struggle early every time. Last year they started 0-2. This year they needed multiple goal line stands to outlast FCS Abilene Christian 52-51. Texas Tech gave up 615(!) offensive yards, the most allowed by a Power 4 defense in Week 1.

Now it's off to the Palouse, where Wazzu showed off his speed, scoring 70 points against Portland State. The Cougars had five 50-plus yard rushing games last week, which was an FBS high. They weren't exactly the 1985 Bears, either, allowing 449 yards and 30 points.

The over/under in this game is 65.5 according to BetMGM. Beat the over and enjoy the fireworks.

Potential for chaos: 5/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

Colorado in Nebraska

Last year, Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes took exception to Nebraska coach Matt Rhule's “disrespect.” Deion Sanders called the matchup “personal.” The Colorado coach is striking a different tone this time, praising Rhule this week, but the tension between these former Big Eight foes should continue.

Can Colorado protect Shedeur better? There was a slight improvement last week, but it still wasn't great: According to Pro Football Focus, Sanders was pressured on 30.8 percent of his dropbacks against North Dakota State (98th in the FBS), compared to 36.7 percent last year. But when Sanders gets on a roll, that's when the magic — or disaster — happens. An upset win against the improved Cornhuskers could put the Big 12 on alert.

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

No. 17 Kansas State at Tulane

When Kansas State won the Big 12 in 2022, the Wildcats started the season 5-1, with their only loss coming at home to Tulane (which went on to win the AAC title). K-State must travel to New Orleans this time, and the Green Wave are once again contenders for the AAC title under new coach Jon Sumrall.

The Wildcats got off to a slow start offensively last week against UT Martin, but were dominant defensively and committed no penalties. Could K-State suffer a blowout here and still make the playoffs with a repeat of its 2022 run? Sure, but that's not advisable, especially with Arizona visiting the Little Apple in a week.

Tulane is one of only 13 teams in the Group of 5 to have defeated multiple power conference opponents in the last five years.

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

Baylor at No. 11 Utah

Yes, those are two Big 12 teams. No, this is not a Big 12 conference game. It's the rematch of a series between the two that began when Utah was still in the Pac-12 (the Utes beat Baylor 20-13 in Waco last year).

It's still a good benchmark. Utah, the league favorite, has won 32 of its last 34 home games. Baylor was terrible last year but made several personnel changes and became more aggressive in the transfer portal in an attempt to move up. Head coach Dave Aranda is calling the defense for the first time since his time as LSU's defensive coordinator. He said he was “angry a lot” last week when he did that, comparing it to being a fighter pilot. The Bears held Tarleton State to 3 points.

What if Aranda gets really angry on Saturday?

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

Medium chaos potential

Arkansas at No. 16 Oklahoma State

Mike Gundy and Bobby Petrino on opposite sidelines. A coach on the hot seat (Sam Pittman) who needs every win he can get. A quarterback about to become eligible for retirement (Oklahoma State's Alan Bowman). A Heisman Trophy contender (Ollie Gordon II). SEC versus Big 12. What more could you ask for?

It's more of a must-win for the Hogs, but the way Oklahoma State wins or loses will be crucial. Notably, Arkansas has started three straight seasons 2-0 under Pittman.

Potential for chaos: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯

Mississippi State vs. Arizona State

Looking for a Big 12 spoiler? Arizona State could be the one. The team ranked last in the league crushed Wyoming 48-7 in a game the Sun Devils entered as 6.5-point favorites. Coach Kenny Dillingham is trying to avoid complacency by criticizing his team's practice performance.

“Our guys thought they won the Super Bowl on Saturday,” Dillingham told local reporters this week. “They came here and acted like we were an undefeated, good football team, but we practiced today like a team with a 1-11 record.” He later added: “We accomplished nothing. … We're still nobody.”

If the Sun Devils beat an SEC team, they won't be a nobody for long.

Potential for chaos: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯

Iowa State ranked 21st Iowa

Iowa has won eight of its last 10 Cy-Hawk Series games, but the Cyclones won their last game at Kinnick Stadium in 2022 and four of their last five road games against all opponents. The Hawkeyes may have a good offense; they opened the season with a win over Illinois State in which they scored 40 points. Iowa State entered the season as a contender for the Big 12 title; a win here would confirm that status.

Potential for chaos: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯

Low chaos potential

Sam Houston at UCF

The talent difference here makes an upset unlikely. No FBS team rushed for more yards last week than the Knights, who rushed for 454 yards (the most of any Power 4 team since 2022). But Sam Houston has a respectable defense and is coming off an eye-opening 20-point road win over Rice last week.

Potential for chaos: 2/5 🤯🤯

No. 19 Kansas in Illinois

Jalon Daniels looks healthy, Devin Neal is on track for success, and Kansas' offense is buzzing. This isn't a sure thing for the Jayhawks (they're 5.5-point favorites), but it won't be a disaster if they stumble.

Potential for chaos: 2/5 🤯🤯

BYU at SMU

Here's a classic Big 12-ACC matchup. SMU survived a Week 0 scare at Nevada. Meanwhile, BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff is determined to prove he's not the worst starting quarterback in the Big 12, as PFF claimed last month.

Potential for chaos: 2/5 🤯🤯

Pitt in Cincinnati

The Bearcats have promise offensively but need a better run defense. They beat Pitt last year but then lost eight straight games and nine of their last ten. Bring back the Paddlewheel Trophy!

Potential for chaos: 2/5 🤯🤯

Houston at No. 15 Oklahoma

The Cougars have a strong chance of finishing last after being dominated by UNLV at home. How many points will OU quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Sooners score against them?

Potential for chaos: 1/5 🤯

The Sleepers

Games against FCS opponents or where a landslide victory is expected for other reasons:

• Albany, West Virginia

• Long Island at TCU

• Northern Arizona at No. 20 Arizona

(Photo of Matt Rhule and Deion Sanders: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

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