Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Texas overtakes Ohio State while Michigan and Notre Dame plummet in college football rankings

On Sunday, we return to the normal rhythm of the AP Top 25 poll after the extended action of Week 1 over Labor Day. As we wrap up Week 2 and move the discussion into Week 3, we see once again how fickle things can be in the college football rankings early in the season.

Teams can look great one week and fall far short of expectations the following week, but when we only have a few games to profile on, it can be difficult to determine an appropriate place in the top 25. For example, is Notre Dame the team that won on the road at Texas A&M or the team that lost at home to Northern Illinois?

It doesn't even have to be a real surprise to see changes in the rankings, as the same kind of confusion could apply to Alabama or Penn State, both of which have struggled hard against Group of Five opponents and whose rankings will change on Sunday.

But the most predictable early-season rankings shifts are reactions to incredibly impressive wins, and few victories will resonate more than Texas' statement game against Michigan in the Big House. The Longhorns outran Michigan from the start and controlled the game throughout, led by Quinn Ewers' steady hand and a confidence that comes from this Texas team's recent successes. They looked every bit like a national title contender, and that will make AP voters rethink their previous views of how the country's top teams compare to each other.

Here's what we think the new AP Top 25 will look like on Sunday:

1. Georgia (Previous ranking – 1): No change for the leaders after they began the home game with a 45-point win over FCS Tennessee Tech.

2. Texas (3): Just 60 points separated Texas from Ohio State last week (1,478 to 1,418), despite 12 voters ranking Texas lower than No. 3 and one as high as No. 6. We expect the Michigan win—more specifically, the dominant kind of win—to raise the expectations of voters who gave the Longhorns lower votes and could even lead to a few stray first-round votes. That's the recipe for overcoming a 60-point vote deficit and getting into the No. 1 conversation.

3. Ohio State (2): This wouldn't be a case of the Buckeyes being penalized for anything — they were thorough in dispatching Western Michigan — but when comparing teams at the top of the sport, this one big win is missing. Georgia looked excellent against Clemson and Texas showed it's title worthy on the road at Michigan. Until Ohio State has a chance to pull off a big win, it will rely on its preseason reputation and raw talent in the battle for the No. 1 spot.

4. Ole Miss (6): Jaxson Dart is quickly solidifying his position as the nation's top quarterback by piling up more impressive stats and accomplishments in his third season at Oxford. Entering Saturday's game in a 52-3 win over Middle Tennessee, Dart had 24 consecutive completions, the longest single-game streak in SEC history.

5. Alabama (4): Expect Kalen DeBoer's team to take a bit of a step back after looking shaky for much of the 42-16 win over South Florida. Alabama came out unscathed and shouldn't fall too far, but the Crimson Tide will likely fall out of the top five.

6. Penn State (8): The MAC's first edition in Week 2, which threatened to pull off a top-10 upset, ended with the favorites winning — narrowly. Penn State's defense allowed goals on four of Bowling Green's first five possessions of the game before holding the Falcons at bay after halftime. Then, in the second half, two 100-yard runs by Nicholas Singleton (13 carries, 119 yards) and Kaytron Allen (14 carries, 101 yards) helped Penn State survive the upset.

7. Missouri (9): The Tigers may not have had as big a win as Georgia or Texas, but they've done exactly what you'd expect from a top-10 team through the first two weeks of the season. After another start-to-finish win, this time against Buffalo, Missouri has more points than its competition this year (89-0).

8.Oregon (7): Boise State was relentless in its pursuit of a late-night upset, but Oregon's ability to pull off a 34-31 win will keep the Ducks in the top 10. Voters may reevaluate this team's position after winning for the second week in a row seemed more difficult than expected before the game, but no major adjustments were made after a hard-fought victory.

9.Utah (11): While the Utes started the Big 12 season with a 23-12 win over Baylor, all eyes will be on Cam Rising after the Utes' star quarterback left the game with a hand injury. Kyle Whittingham said on the postgame broadcast that he believed the injury was “not serious,” but Utah's offense failed to score a single point in the second half with Rising on the bench.

10. Miami (12): No major changes for the Hurricanes after a convincing 56-9 win over Florida A&M, which was highlighted by Cam Ward's performance with four touchdowns (three by passing, one by running).

11.USC (13): There is no sign of a hangover from Sunday's big win in Las Vegas for LSU, as the Trojans built a big early lead and left no doubt about a win against Utah State. That's two appearances less than a week apart in which USC has shown improved defense and top-notch play at the skill positions. The Trojans will move up a few spots in the restructure, but won't stray too far in this ranking from last week's ranking.

12. Tennessee (14): A stunning performance by Tennessee's offense is sure to grab the attention of voters who viewed one of the few ranked games of Week 2 as a chance to judge the Volunteers' position as a top-15 team. Needless to say, there is no doubt after the 51-10 victory, and the rules of the game will now be changed to match Tennessee against the SEC's best teams.

13. Oklahoma State (16): Some key turnovers and a pick-six allowed the Cowboys to pull through and eventually survive a thrilling double-overtime thriller against Arkansas. In some ways, Oklahoma State should be encouraged that its veteran squad found a way to win on a day when things weren't consistent, but there's also a lot of work to be done with big games coming up soon.

14. Kansas State (17): After a difficult first half, Kansas State looked to be on the verge of losing an early non-conference game for the third straight year, but the Wildcats' defense equalized late, stopping the ball and even scoring in a 34-27 road win over Tulane.

15. Notre-Dame (5): Notre Dame, which was on a big surge after beating Texas A&M in the season opener, is sure to take a nosedive after losing at home to Northern Illinois. The Fighting Irish were ranked No. 5 but were still ranked between Nos. 8 and 10 by a dozen voters last week. There may not be a high floor for their fall.

16.Michigan (10): Michigan's inability to move the ball and finish offenses consistently is an alarming detail that stands out to every college football fan and certainly to AP voters. The Wolverines still have one of the most talented defenses in the country, but without an offense that contributes to complementary football, it will be hard to put Michigan in the top 10.

17. LSU-18: A quick turnaround from Sunday's loss to USC in Las Vegas left LSU in a precarious situation, as LSU led just 23-21 against Nicholls early in the third quarter. But the Tigers took control in the second half, scoring 21 unanswered points to win by a comfortable final score of 44-21.

18. Oklahoma (15): We expect the Sooners to drop a few spots after their offense struggled in the 16-12 win over Houston. Oklahoma was a four-touchdown favorite and had to worry about the outcome until the final minutes when a defensive safety saved the day.

19.Arizona (20): When Arizona trailed Northern Arizona at halftime, things looked worrisome on the scoreboard, but the Wildcats held on to the Lumberjacks in the second half and found more offense in a 22-10 victory.

20.Louisville (22): Quarterback Tyler Shough played into the fourth quarter as Jeff Brohm wanted to leave no doubt in a 49-14 win over Jacksonville State. Shough led a charge that produced 550 yards of offense in the win and led the Cardinals to a 2-0 record as they entered an off week to start the season.

21.Clemson (25): No team that lost in Week 1 was able to rebound in Week 2 like Clemson. The Tigers took a 35-0 lead in the first quarter against Appalachian State and held on to that lead throughout the 66-20 victory.

22. Iowa State (NR): After trailing 13-0 at halftime, Iowa State's injury-plagued defense stepped up its game in the second half as Rocco Becht showed his resilience to lead the Cyclones to an epic comeback victory. With a field goal to take the lead in the final minute of the game, Iowa State can take the confidence from this rivalry into the Big 12, where many games will come down to late execution.

23. Nebraska (NR): Early in the season, it can be difficult to separate credit for a win from blame for a loss, but the stunning finish on a big stage will go a long way toward improving AP voters' opinion of the Cornhuskers. Not only did Nebraska avenge last season's loss to Colorado, but with Dylan Raiola and a defense that can punish opponents for mistakes, it showed all of its potential to be great in 2024.

24. Illinois (NC): In 2022, Bret Bielema brought Illinois back into the AP Top 25 poll for the first time in 11 years, and we expect Saturday's win over Kansas to add another ranking to his tenure, as the Illini found a way to win a tough non-conference battle after a slow and sloppy start.

25. Syracuse (NR): Quarterback Kyle McCord has totaled 735 passing yards and eight touchdowns in two wins for Syracuse. After one of his best performances in the opener, he put up an even better performance against a top-ranked opponent like Georgia Tech. Like Illinois, we expect the 2-0 Orange to climb up the rankings thanks to Saturday's win.

Expected exit: No. 19 Kansas, No. 21 Iowa, No. 23 Georgia Tech, No. 24 NC State