Giants QB Daniel Jones and Vikings QB Sam Darnold are under pressure

Sunday's season opener between the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings features a number of interesting subplots, but none are as intriguing as the clash between two quarterbacks who were drafted highly by New York teams and will be fighting for their NFL lives as starters this season.

Both Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold started as the second quarterback in their draft years. Both were under scrutiny from the beginning of their careers as starters on mostly unsuccessful teams (though Jones only started Game 3). Both had more failures than successes up to this point. The biggest difference between the two is that Jones had stayed with the team that drafted him up to this point, limited only by a series of injuries. Darnold was healthier but lost his starting spot and was on the move, playing for four different teams in his career and becoming a career backup until an injury this summer put him back in a starting position.

To say that both quarterbacks are under pressure to perform this season is an understatement. But this Sunday, the pressure will be on, literally. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzes more than anyone in the NFL and has good defenders in Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard and rookie Dallas Turner who bring pressure even when they're playing defense offensively. New Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen doesn't blitz much, but his defense is built on pressure from his front four, who win their battles with the offensive linemen or find gaps with stunts.

It's not unreasonable to assume that the team whose pass rush gets to the quarterback the most, or at least close to him, will emerge victorious. Here's how the two QBs fared in a clean pocket vs. under pressure last season, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

The sample size for Jones is limited due to his two injuries (the first, at least, was the direct result of a hit by pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel, with whom he will renew his acquaintance on Sunday). However, it's clear that pressure was a big part of Jones' poor play in 2023. That's understandable, because there's pressure and then there's relentless pressure, and the Giants' worst offensive line ever (in Pro Football Focus history) in 2023 resulted in Jones being pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks. As bad as fans think Jones was last season, he was actually an above-average passer when kept clean.

Darnold was also pressured on 45.5% of dropbacks last season, but his sample size is even smaller because he was a backup who started only one meaningless game in Week 18 and played a significant role in only one other game last season. Darnold was also above average in a clean pocket, but just below average under pressure. Both Jones and Darnold threw their only touchdown passes when they were well protected.

We can get a slightly better picture if we look at the entire careers of both quarterbacks:

Data from Pro Football Focus

For both quarterbacks, their PFF passing grade was, on average, about 40% worse when under pressure than when operating in a clean pocket. Jones has been an above-average passer in every year of his career when kept clean and has had two outstanding seasons of good pass protection. Perhaps not coincidentally, the first of these was almost a playoff season (albeit in the year of the “NFC Least”) and the second was actually a playoff season.

We can gain more perspective by asking how other quarterbacks perform under pressure versus in a clean pocket. Below is a rough list of the quarterbacks who are generally considered the best in the NFL right now. (The exact order comes to mind.)

Data from Pro Football Focus

Every quarterback who dropped at least 100 times in 2023 performed worse under pressure than in a clean pocket. The best, perhaps unsurprisingly, was Joe Burrow (only 17.3% worse passing grade under pressure than without). Burrow has a reputation for standing under pressure and not backing down. Of course, he also had two season-ending injuries. Aside from Burrow, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts were least affected by pressure last season.

However, as Jones and Darnold's career stats show, the effect of pressure is not a stable statistic from year to year. This could reflect changes in the health and composition of teams' offensive lines, but that's pure speculation. On average, however, the NFL's best quarterbacks perform about 30% worse under pressure than they do without pressure, compared to the roughly 40% decline seen in Jones and Darnold's career stats.

However, even Josh Allen and surprise rookie CJ Stroud performed over 40% worse under pressure than in a clean pocket. The great Mahomes threw 22 of his 27 touchdown passes from a clean pocket and had 8 of his 14 INTs under pressure. Stroud threw 20 of his 23 touchdowns from a clean pocket. Tua Tagovailoa threw 27 of his 29 touchdowns from a clean pocket. Dak Prescott 27 of his 36 touchdowns. Jared Goff 24 of his 30 touchdowns.

All of these quarterbacks were under pressure 35% or less of the time. Say what you will about PFF ratings, but there is solid evidence that most quarterbacks score a lot more points when they have time to throw. But it may be even more. Expectation Pressure from quarterbacks whose offensive lines do a poor job of protecting passes can affect their decision-making even when they get a clean pocket, but that's not a hypothesis that's easily tested.

The bottom line for Sunday: Watch which quarterback runs for his life more often and you will most likely know which team will not win the game.