Sunday 7: On to Cincinnati, again

The wait is over, my fellow Foxboro Faithful. After 243 long days and an offseason of change, turmoil, confusion, collaboration and roster reconfiguring, your New England Patriots finally take the football field again today, Sunday, Sept. 8, in Cincinnati, at Paycor Stadium, against the Bengals. PTL and LFG!

Feels like an eternity since the snow fell sideways at Gillette Stadium last January against the New York Jets in what would become Bill Belichick’s final game as HC of the NEP. Now a new era with head coach Jerod Mayo and company is about to begin, with questions abound on every side of the ball. There’s no denying this is a team in transition, with a long-term rebuild the focus. Can they entertain and engage their fans and the football audience at large with turning the ship around? The answer lay ahead over the next 18 weeks. Let’s get to what’s on the front of mind in advance of the opener.

1 – Seems like a bit of an existential question to kick things off with, but just who will these Pats be? What kind of team will they field this season, let alone Sunday against a good Bengals squad looking to get back on the postseason track with their all-world QB Joe Burrow now back under center. One game does not a season indicate nor a hand tip, but the Bengals may be a quality and telling first opponent to show us all how these Pats will go about their business.

Way back in the winter, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt declared he believes running the football to be the key to scoring and success in the NFL. Add that to Mayo saying on his introduction day that the Pats planned to be a game-plan oriented offense and we may envision more of a smashmouth approach to advancing the ball. On defense, DeMarcus Covington, like Mayo, comes from a unit coached up by Bill Belichick for years, and with no significant offseason additions to their defense (only a few key subtractions in Christian Barmore and Matt Judon), we may see a similar style from recent years.

Tough as nails, bend but don’t break defense, and a gap-running, play-action based game-plan offense, with a splash of Van Pelt’s West Coast/Stefanski pass game…hmm, sounds pretty familiar, yes? Perhaps the question isn’t what kind of team do the Pats plan on being but rather do they have the horses to be the team they plan to be?

On defense there are those key losses in Judon and Barmore, but you have the return of several secondary keys in Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones. Up front players like Keion White will be expected to take a big second-year step, while D-line stalwarts in Davon Godchaux, Jahlani Tavai and Deatrich Wise will be expected to hold the fort down so thumpers Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger can drop the hammer and lower the boom. Mayo himself this week said controlling the line of scrimmage will be the key for the Pats to be successful, so it seems safe to think they’ll be stout up front.

Offense is a different story. Jacoby Brissett is the starting QB until further notice, and while he isn’t a gunslinger per se, he is a competent, experienced high floor QB with experience in this system AND against Cincinnati (he beat them while with Cleveland back in 2022.) Rhamondre Stevenson is a multi-purpose workhorse who figures to be the focal point of the Pats attack, and so long as Antonio Gibson is a go (he popped up on the injury report mid week), then the Pats should have the legs to try to grind this one out, provided the line plays along (more on the O-line in a bit).

The passing game remains the big question mark. Will anyone establish themselves as anything resembling a true or true-ish number one receiver? With Kendrick Bourne on the PUP list, the opportunity is there for any number among KJ Osborn, DeMario Douglas, Tyquan Thornton and rookie Ja’Lynn Polk to become the favored target of Brissett. We’ll see if Kayshon Boutte enters the chat, and if rookie Javon Baker is even active after his foolish Instagram misstep this week. Tight end Hunter Henry seems a full go after being listed as Questionable in a unit that has been banged up the last few weeks. How big a role the tight ends play depends on health, game plan and of course the O-line’s ability to hold their ground.

Cincinnati’s defense had their issues last season, especially in the secondary. Vonn Bell returns at safety, joined by Geno Stone from Baltimore, who fills in for Jessie Bates, who they never really replaced last season. DJ Reader, a goliath on their D-line, is gone and not really replaced. While the Bengals were in the bottom of the league in terms of yards allowed in 2023, the thinking is their defense can be moved on but should be tighter under veteran coordinator Lou Anarumo. New England will have to try to establish the ground game and pick their spots, because getting into a shootout with Joe Burrow, whether he has Ja’Marr Chase for a full game or not, is not a great idea.

Again, Cincinnati with a reconfigured defense, a QB who missed half of last season and not his full comportment of weapons should make for an intriguing first opponent for these Patriots to show if they’re up to the challenge and just what kind of team they plan or at least hope to be this season.

2 – Speaking of Ja’Marr Chase…the All-Pro wide receiver, who’s looking to be paid top of market like or beyond the likes of Justin Jefferson, said Friday he believes a deal can be reached between he and the Bengals, but that come Sunday he’s likely to be a “game-time decision” and will more than likely be limited as he’s not been participating fully in camp with Cincinnati. Even in limited action Chase, truly an elite weapon anywhere in formation, can be massively effective against any team, let alone the Pats. Be he a target or decoy Chase will be a factor. Perhaps not as much as if he were a full-go, but still to be accounted for.

The rest of Cincinnati’s targets include Tee Higgins, who’s also looking to get a lucrative wide receiver deal, though not likely in Cincy as he’s playing this year on the franchise tag. Higgins likely won’t be the thorn in the side of the Pats he was two years ago as he’s been listed as Doubtful with a hamstring injury. Lest we forget two years back he feasted in his last game vs the Pats, going off for eight catches, 128 yards and a TD with corner Jonathan Jones mostly in coverage. This potentially thrusts more action and great focus on the other Bengals targets, which include Trent Irwin, second year receiver Andrei Iosavis (who Burrow said had a great camp) and speedy rookie Trey Burton, aka the Bengals version of Javon Baker (talented but a handful.)

With Burrow coming back from an injury, Chase limited, Higgins likely out and new playmakers on all levels (including old pal Mike Gesicki at tight end and Zack Moss as the primary back, replacing Joe Mixon), it will be interesting to see how Cincinnati and new OC Dan Pitcher choose to attack the Pats defense. Some rust and growing pains could be seen potentially on both sides to start. Don’t be surprised if this is a low scoring affair early (for those curious the Over/Under in the game is 40.5) and over the full 60 minutes.

3 – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but there’s concern once again about the Patriots offensive line, which thanks to injury could be starting a combination that just came together a few days ago. Please allow me, but that’s…not ideal!

Anyway…Vederian Lowe, the presumed starting left tackle on this team (but likely not many if any others), was limited this week with an abdomen issue. This could mean Chukwuma Okorafor, acquired in the offseason to switch from right to left tackle, could get the start if Lowe is a no-go. Meanwhile second-year guard Sidy Sow is out due to an ankle injury, thrusting free agent G/C Nick Leverett into the mix this week at left guard. The rest of the line should hold to form with David Andrews at center, rookie Layden Robinson at right guard and veteran Mike Onwenu at right tackle. Still, the line, which has been unstable and in flux for years now, continues to be a mix ‘n match headache for the Pats. Anyone who’s played or coached will tell you stability is key along the line, and this one has been anything but stable and consistent for an age now. In fact, the only consistent element is how slapdash and troubled it’s been.

There are not gambling odds on this but don’t be surprised to see more than five players, and not just because of health issues, line up Sunday for first-year Pats offensive line coach Scott Peters, with rookie tackle Caedan Wallace, guard Michael Jordan and recently acquired Zach Thomas among many who could be in rotation. Far from ideal, but sometimes you have to play the cards or guards you’ve been dealt.

This week Mayo, when addressing the line, said that conditioning could also play a factor in the Pats O-line rotation.

We saw the trouble referees had Thursday night in the opener in Kansas City with illegal line formations. New England made a point of holding their line accountable for lining up correctly in the immediate aftermath.

Should New England revert to anything resembling the trouble they had in the first half vs. Washington in the preseason finale (eight penalties!), forcing the officials to be more involved with this underperforming, ever-evolving unit, then we could be in for a long afternoon, and substitutions galore, in Cincy.

4 – For those who believe the Pats are just tanking and basically throwing this season away, making it at best a redshirt year for rookie QB Drake Maye and a developmental year overall, we’d point them to an excellent exclusive interview that the Boston Herald’s Andrew Callahan had this week with Patriots Executive Vice President of Player Personnel (cough, GM) Eliot Wolf.

The biggest takeaway is that Wolf said, “I think tanking cheats the game,” a telling notion from a man in charge of a team whose roster certainly could use the kind of talent infusion that usually comes after a down or “tanked” season.

Wolf, in his first year as the man in charge of personnel and player development, said about Maye, who many want to see on the field and under center sooner rather than later, “It’s not like we’re just going to let him collect dust for the year.”

Maye will be busy, and active, as even coach Mayo made it clear this week he is the backup or #2 QB on the depth chart. Wolf added that he believes rushing someone onto the field when they’re not ready, only to have to pull them off later, is detrimental to their development. That could be the most telling sign regarding Maye in that he’s flashed and is ahead of where they saw his development, but he’s still not ready. Expect to keep hearing more about “The Plan” when it comes to prepping Maye to take over. We’ll just have to prepare to hear more about it if Brissett and the offense struggle to score.

Wolf seems committed to finding his gems among the masses this year, then attacking next offseason with a free agent salary cap war chest and more draft picks. Still, you have to wonder what would make for a successful season in his eyes?

As far as a successful season to the team, or most fans, The Boston Globe’s Ben Volin did a solid job in Friday’s paper with his five points to a successful 2024 Pats season piece. As Volin writes, getting Maye in, never losing the competitive drive, peaking at the right time later in season, winning more games than 2023, finding some playmakers and the coach establishing his own presence out of Belichick’s shadow would definitely make for a solid 2024. Times have changed. Our expectations are different. Forget paths, postseasons and playoff odds. Just get the ship with the right people pointed in the right direction, then we can change narratives next year.

5 – One of those players many expect to be a leader and building block on the Pats is second-year corner Christian Gonzalez. His high draft pick (16th overall in 2023), solid play last season and star power smile seem to have people ticketing him for stardom and a bronze bust in Canton already. And while the man they call Gonzo seems capable of carrying lofty expectations, and difficult assignments, perhaps the hype is a bit much right now.

“You have to think of this as an extension of his rookie year”, Devin McCourty told us on a recent 6 Rings podcast. And it’s a good point. Gonzalez played so well those three-plus games in 2023 before getting injured for the remainder of the season, that fans have just assumed he’ll pick right up where he left off, then ascend further into the shutdown corner stratosphere. Holding a player who hasn’t completed half or even a full season to top five cornerback status and standard might be too much, despite Gonzo’s magnetism and fluid playing style. We’d have to expect he will struggle at times, get beat and hopefully turn right around and learn from the mistake. To expect perfection right away is excessive to say the least.

That said, many believe he has what it takes to be a top corner in the league. Someone he emulates, Denver’s Patrick Surtain II, got paid, excuse me, PAID, this week, making him the top paid cornerback in history at four years and $96 million (that was until Miami’s Jalen Ramsey received a three-year, $72.3 million extension, making him the richest corner in NFL history on a per-year basis).

Gonzalez wanting and deserving that money would be the best first-world problem for the Patriots to face at the end of the 2025 campaign. For now, Gonzalez picking up where he left off last October and resuming his very promising career, with ups and downs to be found, would be a best case scenario. That extended rookie year resumes with a quality test in Cincinnati with Chase and company. Each week thereafter he’ll draw top receivers like Seattle’s DK Metcalf, New York’s Garrett Wilson and many more. The one who wears number zero seems up to it. There’s going to be a learning curve, and Gonzalez is a soft-spoken smooth man of few words. Best to let his play and not the hype machine that already has him in Canton do the talking.

6 – Sunday’s Pats-Bengals game gets a god broadcast team, perhaps one of the better play-by-play pulls a team that has so little fanfare about it will get all season, outside of course of the rumored Tom Brady FOX call for Week 5 at home vs. the Dolphins (that Maye be a fun one in Foxboro!). The CBS B-Team of Ian Eagle, Charles Davis and Gary Washburn will be on the call. Eagle, whose son Noah delivered play-by-play Friday night of the Packers “at” Eagles game from Brazil, is one of the best in the business and will make for a dynamic call for Mayo’s coaching debut.

Depending on how the season goes, and most believe there may be more L’s than W’s, we can likely expect more CBS and FOX C-Team broadcasts…with the one Thursday Night Football call with Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit Sept. 19 at the Jets.

7 – Sunday’s game marks the 28th time these two teams will face off, with the Pats holding a 17-10 all-time advantage over the Queen City kitties. The last time they faced off resulted in a 22-18 dub for the Bengals at Gillette on Christmas Eve, 2022. That game, which is Joe Burrow’s only start vs. the Pats, was most remembered for the Pats’ failed comeback when Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled inside the 10-yard line with under two minutes remaining, thwarting what would have been a Christmas miracle for the Pats.

New England’s last game in Cincinnati was Tom Brady’s final road start for the Pats, a 34-13 win for New England in a game started by Andy Dalton for the then-lowly Bengals. Now Dalton is the backup in Carolina, Brady is calling his first game for FOX, and nobody is picking the Pats to win anything. Sigh…my, how the times have changed.