Major Bay Area cities examine crime changes over the years

According to an analysis of data from the California Department of Justice, Oakland's crime rate, which is consistently higher than the Bay Area's other major cities, has skyrocketed since the Covid-19 pandemic, while rates in San Francisco and San Jose have stabilized.

The data show a striking contrast between the Bay Area's largest cities at a time when crime has become a growing problem across the region. An August poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that voters across the state favored a bill passed in November by a 2-to-1 margin to toughen penalties for repeat theft and drug offenses, a proposal supported by the mayors of San Francisco and San Jose.

A look at 20 years of crime data from the state Department of Justice shows that the number of reported crimes per 100,000 residents has consistently been higher in Oakland than in San Francisco and San Jose. The figures also show:

• Oakland's overall crime rate was higher in 2023 than at any other time in the past two decades, increasing 100 percent since 2020, 56 percent since 2013, and 86 percent since 2003. Oakland's violent crime rate increased 174 percent in 2023 since 2020, 72 percent since 2013, and 150 percent since 2003. Oakland's property crime rate increased 90 percent in 2023 since 2020, 52 percent since 2013, and 72 percent since 2003.

• San Francisco's overall crime rate fluctuated in 2023, being 15 percent higher than in 2020, 16 percent lower than in 2013, and only 2 percent higher than in 2003. San Francisco's violent crime rate increased 16 percent in 2023 over 2020, but was 27 percent lower than in 2013 and 14 percent lower than in 2003. San Francisco's property crime rate increased 14 percent in 2023 over 2020, was 15 percent lower than in 2013, and 4 percent higher than in 2003.

• San Jose's overall crime rate in 2023 was the lowest it has been in 20 years: 15 percent lower than in 2020, 22 percent lower than in 2013 and 12 percent lower than in 2003. Violent crime in San Jose has increased — 11 percent since 2020, 41 percent since 2013 and 27 percent since 2003 — but remains lower than in San Francisco or Oakland. And San Jose's property crime rate in 2023 was the lowest it has ever been: 19 percent lower than in 2020, 30 percent lower than in 2013 and 18 percent lower than in 2003.

In the Bay Area's major cities, the combined total crime rate and property crime rate are higher than they were 20 years ago, but are declining; violent crime is lower but on the rise.

It is unclear why Oakland's crime rate has diverged so sharply from that of San Francisco and San Jose, especially in recent years. In 2023, Oakland's auto theft rate was the highest in more than 20 years, increasing 114.5 percent from 2022 to 2023 – a rate of about one stolen car for every 27 residents.

These differences in crime rates seem to affect the fortunes of city leaders.

In Oakland, where business owners threatened to withhold taxes earlier this year as part of a strike against crime and forfeiture, Mayor Sheng Thao faces a recall election in November, as does Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price.

In San Francisco, Mayor London Breed is battling strong rivals for her position in November. Her job was not helped by the gunshot wound to 49ers football player Ricky Pearsall during a brazen robbery in the city's Union Square shopping district over Labor Day weekend.

In San Jose, Mayor Matt Mahan easily secured re-election in March.

The mayor's office and Oakland police declined to comment on the city's recent crime rate spike.

But Sergeant Huy Nguyen, president of the Oakland Police Officers' Association, blamed a lack of leadership in the city and the department for creating staffing shortages in the department and enforcing policies that did not hold criminals accountable, such as stopping pursuits of stolen vehicles.

“Crime is increasing because people are increasingly realizing that they can commit crimes and get away with it,” Nguyen said.

The Oakland Police Department has been under federal scrutiny since 2003 after civil rights lawsuits were filed against a group of police officers known as the “Riders” who were accused of brutality. The city was forced to settle for $10 million. The department has seen a series of chiefs, most recently Thao fired former chief LeRonne Armstrong last year over his handling of misconduct investigations.

But city reports suggest the blame lies elsewhere, too. An April city auditor's report on why Oakland missed a deadline last year to apply for a state retail theft prevention grant said the mayor “could have shown leadership” in applying for the grant.

San Francisco was among the cities that received federal retail theft prevention grants last year. The $15.3 million is earmarked for combating property crime, which has long been a problem in the city, said Evan Sernoffsky, director of strategic communications for the San Francisco Police Department.

“We have taken aggressive approaches to reducing property crime that have shown positive results,” he said. “San Francisco is unfortunately particularly affected by car break-ins because tourists come here. They visit the attractions and often have luggage in their vehicles.”

Although the violent crime rate in San Francisco has increased in recent years, Sernoffsky noted, “In general, San Francisco has always had a very low violent crime rate compared to other major cities in the country.”

In San Jose, the overall crime rate in 2023 is lower than it was 20 years ago, when a private statistics publisher named the city the safest big city in America. This is largely due to a decline in property crimes – the violent crime rate is higher than it was 20 years ago, but still lower than San Francisco and only one-seventh the rate in Oakland.

San Jose police also received an $8.5 million state shoplifting reduction grant. San Jose police noted that the department's transition, like others, to a different statewide crime reporting system makes comparisons between 2022 and 2023 difficult.

And Mayor Mahan has taken the lead in pushing for passage of Proposition 36, a bill passed in November that increases penalties for repeat property and drug offenses. The initiative would amend a proposal passed 10 years ago, Proposition 47, that reduced penalties for property and drug offenses to reduce prison overcrowding.

Critics of Proposition 36 point to the overall decline in crime statistics and say such a measure is unnecessary and risks increasing the prison population.

“By most accounts, the effects of Prop. 47 were quite positive and did not lead to an increase in crime,” said Jack Glaser, a professor of criminal justice and public policy at UC Berkeley.

Others counter that crime rates simply reflect what victims report to the police. This is not always the case for smaller-scale drug and theft crimes, which are a lower priority for the police, especially when the consequences are less severe.

George Fisher, a criminal justice professor and co-director of the Criminal Prosecution Clinic at Stanford University, said victims are not motivated to report crimes if they do not trust that police will intervene. In such cases, interviewing victims paints a more truthful picture.

Fisher has some theories as to why overall crime rates in Bay Area cities have increased since 2020. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, “people in general weren't on the streets like they were before, and those who were on the streets committing crimes were a little more conspicuous and easier to catch.”

In addition, outrage over the videotaped killing of George Floyd by police in Minnesota in 2020 – the officer who ordered the arrest for using suspected counterfeit money had been convicted of murder – has deterred officers from making arrests for minor offenses, Fisher said.

“Across the country, police departments were demoralized and saw little point in making arrests except for the most serious crimes,” Fisher said.

However, these factors would affect all city police departments equally and would not explain the stark differences between crime rates in Oakland, San Francisco and San Jose.

Nguyen of the Oakland Police Association said, “The Oakland Police Department's leadership is poor, and the city lacks leadership that is willing to take a stand and support the police department.”