Why D'Andre Swift is preferred over two similarly valuable RBs and why Tony Pollard should be benched

D'Andre Swift and Rhamondre Stevenson both had an average draft position of Round 6 in the PPR Draft. Tony Pollard's position fell into the early 7th round. Now that fantasy managers have drafted them, it's time to figure out which of them is a starter, who is a flex, and who should be benched in Week 1.

Swift opens the season in Chicago, his third team in as many seasons, where he will face the Titans and their revamped roster. Stevenson not only stayed in New England, he also got a contract extension. The Patriots hope that money will be well spent in Cincinnati. And Pollard, formerly of the Cowboys, is part of the Titans team that will face the Bears' strengthening defense.

Start: D'Andre Swift

I wasn't too keen on him during the fantasy draft process, but I'm hoping a fresher Swift will benefit from facing the Titans. Tennessee has perhaps the best D-tackle duo in the game in Jeffrey Simmons and rookie T'Vondre Sweat. The team also has one of the best cornerback trios after signing both L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to complement Roger McCreary. They're also strong at safety.

Running Swift behind the Bears' decent O-line against those two giants isn't going to do anything. But on the edges away from those guys, Swift could make them pay. In Philly last year, Swift averaged 4.4 yards per run to the edges with better rush EPA, better success rate, and more yards after contact per run than his runs between the tackles. Anything Chicago can do to get their speedster away from the middle of that D-line should go a long way.

And if the Bears can win on perimeter offense, they can certainly win on designed blocks, flares and breakaway routes on the perimeter. Tennessee's new addition Ernest Jones was supposed to help them more than the linebackers who would otherwise be tasked with slowing down the running backs, but he himself allowed an 83% catch rate.

I'm starting with Swift because I think he has a good chance of getting a lot of yards and catching a few passes. If he can score in some way, he'll be a real asset to fantasy lineups.

Flexible: Rhamondre Stevenson

Frankly, even calling Stevenson a flex scares me. The Patriots plan to run more outside zone runs with Stevenson this year, something he said he's used to in college. The problem is, according to TRU Media, Stevenson averaged 3.0 yards per run on outside zone runs last year and 2.5 yards in 2022. Inside Zone runs were Stevenson's strength – at least 4.8 yards per run in each of his final two years.

But that's just the beginning of Stevenson's worries. New England's offensive line may be the worst in the league. Only guard Sidy Sow and center David Andrews finished in the top 20 in Pro Football Focus run-blocking ratings at their positions. Another lineman, Cole Strange, ranked 24th among guards. Sow's playing time is uncertain, with Strange on the PUP list.

And it's not like the Bengals defense will dominate against the run, but they have the depth along the D-line and linebackers to at least keep Stevenson in check. Last season, they allowed 4.4 yards per carry against zone runs — outside or inside — which is bad for them, but they allowed just two touchdowns and allowed only a low 8.8 rate on explosive runs.

But the real kryptonite is that Cincinnati's offense should score points, especially since Joe Burrow is unlikely to come under serious pressure from the New England defense. This game script could force the Patriots to give up on Stevenson, as they did at times last year. All of Stevenson's best games — and I use the term “best” very loosely — ended in one-point losses or Patriots wins.

Finally, Stevenson had one run of 15+ yards last year. That's a glaring problem that probably has more to do with his offensive line and opportunities than his own talent, but it's a factoid that should scare anyone considering him.

I'm betting on Stevenson and hope he does enough damage as a pass receiver to salvage his numbers in a PPR league. He did that a lot last year.

Substitute bench: Tony Pollard

It's a whole new world for the Titans offense. No more Derrick Henry. No more weak offensive lines. Brian Callahan will call the plays after being Zac Taylor's right-hand man in Cincinnati. Stronger receiver group. Will Levis is a second-year quarterback.

And a two-headed running attack with Pollard and Tyjae Spears, about whose use several Titans coaches and executives declined to reveal more details than the usual use of a split backfield.

If their preseason games were used as dress rehearsals, we can infer that Pollard may have a heavier workload to start the year. That's because Pollard had a slight edge in snaps played (19 to 14, including penalty plays) and a large edge in touches (13 to 7). Pollard had a 6 to 3 edge in red zone touches and a 2 to 1 edge in touches inside the 5 over Spears. On third downs, Spears had a 4 to 1 edge in snaps, but both had only one touch.

The biggest difference, however, was Pollard's efficiency. A third of his runs were for at least five yards and one was for 20 yards. None of his runs were for zero or fewer yards. On the other hand, Spears had two negative runs, one run for five yards and no explosive runs. That may mean nothing in terms of workload, but Pollard was the better running back in the preseason.

So maybe we can confidently say Pollard is a better fantasy option than Spears. That's important against a Bears run defense that has really good players at linebacker and safety, but still has some question marks up front. Those question marks will certainly be tested against the Titans' well-planned O-line, which happened to look excellent in these preseason snaps. Let's assume that's enough for the Titans' runners to open up some early lanes to get through and potentially make an impact.

The knock against Pollard is obviously his time-sharing with Spears. Although he has played more than Spears and looked better than Spears in the preseason, there is still uncertainty. It's entirely possible that Pollard will get 12 touches while Spears only has 8. It's even possible — maybe even likely — that Spears will play more than Pollard if the Titans fall behind in the second half.

It's that uncertainty that keeps Pollard on my fantasy bench if possible. I'd much rather use the week to learn more about the Titans offense and Pollard's role. The worse news is that even if I like what I see from Pollard this week, I'll be hesitant to use him next week against the Jets and possibly the week after against the Packers.