NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model high on Bills and Chargers in Week 1, 2024

A new NFL record will be set once Jayden Daniels takes his first snap on Sunday when Washington plays Tampa. The Commanders will start their eighth Week 1 quarterback in as many years, as the reigning Heisman winner is a 3.5-point underdog in his first professional start, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds. The last quarterback to start in consecutive season-opening games for Washington was Kirk Cousins ​​(2015-17). The Falcons' new quarterback is favored by 3.5 in the latest Week 1 NFL betting odds. The most common win margin in NFL games is three points, so it can't hurt to have NFL betting tips to make sure you land on the right side of NFL spreads in these games. All of the Week 1 NFL odds are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all of the NFL betting tips and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has gained well over $7,000 since its launch for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season with an incredible 185-129 record on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. It also has a 39-21 record on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model has been in the top 10 in pure NFL picks on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em four times during that time. Anyone who has been following it ranks way up there.

Now it has turned to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over-under, and set picks for every NFL matchup. Click here to see all the picks.

Top predictions for NFL Week 1

We can tell you that one of the model's strongest NFL picks for Week 1 is for the Chargers (-3) to cover the spread at home against the Raiders. It's another divisional matchup and both teams are hoping to close the gap on the Chiefs in the AFC West after bolstering their coaching staffs in the offseason. Antonio Pierce went from interim coach to permanent and the Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in four seasons with the 49ers and most recently won a national championship with Michigan.

We've seen a decent sample of the Raiders with Pierce, as he led them to a 5-4 record over the final nine games of last season. Harbaugh's ability to quickly change a culture is well-documented, however, and this time he has an elite quarterback at his disposal in Justin Herbert. Los Angeles went 24-17 at home last season, and the model expects more of the same, predicting the Chargers to win in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another NFL prediction for Week 1: The Bills (-6.5) cover at home against the Cardinals. Accuracy has never been Kyler Murray's strong suit, but he struggled with it last year. His 31.9% success rate on throws over 15 yards was the third-worst in the NFL, while his 53.3% success rate when targeting wide receivers was the second-worst. While the Cards drafted WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to help with the latter, he will face a buzzsaw defense that allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to opposing wideouts last season.

On the other side of the ball, there's simply no answer for Josh Allen. He's scored 174 total touchdowns over the past four seasons, the most by any player at any position in a four-year span in NFL history. He's also greatly improved his awareness in the pocket, as he was sacked on just 4.0% of dropbacks last season, which was best in the league. Given Arizona's struggles in the air and Allen's historical productivity, the model sees Buffalo (-6.5) with double-digit wins and coverage in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make NFL picks for Week 1

The model also picked the winners and losers for every other game on the NFL's Week 1 schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can get all the picks for every game only at SportsLine.

So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in right now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then head to SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all based on a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 — and find out.

NFL Betting Odds, Lines, Spreads for Week 1

Get Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine

Sunday, September 8

Steelers at Falcons (-3.5, 42)

Cardinals at Bills (-6.5, 46.5)

Titans at Bears (-4, 44)

Patriots at Bengals (-7.5, 41)

Texans at Colts (+3, 49)

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5, 49.5)

Panthers at Saints (-3.5, 41.5)

Vikings at Giants (+1.5, 41)

Raiders at Chargers (-3, 40)

Broncos at Seahawks (-6, 41.5)

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5, 41)

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5, 42.5)

Rams at Lions (-4.5, 52.5)

Monday, September 9

Jets at 49ers (-4, 43.5)