Reality check: What we misunderstand about crime

Americans are concerned about crime; the number of people who believe crime rates are rising has not been this high in decades.

Of course, there are sometimes increases in certain crimes in some places. But overall, I have fantastic news: Nationwide, the crime rate Steady decline for 30 years.

Here are violent crimes such as murders, rapes and robberies:

And here are property crimes such as burglary and theft:

Now it's worth asking where these numbers come from. The FBI keeps a database of all crimes reported by the police. The problem is that we don't always report crimes to the police. People report car theft, but very few report sexual assault.

That's why in the 1970s the Bureau of Justice Statistics began surveying people each year about their experiences with crime, whether or not it was actually reported. This method isn't entirely flawed (you can't really survey a murder victim), but overall the news is good here too.

Nobody really knows how to explain this decline. Maybe it's because of better policing. Maybe it's because of better security technology, rising incomes or lower unemployment. And we're an ageing society, and it's mostly young people who commit crimes.

But whatever the reason, perception and reality are two different things, and in a good way. Most of us believe that crime is increasing, but actually both data sources say that it is actually increasing. down.

So just this once, we should be happy to be wrong!

Story produced by David Rothman. Editor: Emanuele Secci.

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