Bills confident Dalton Kincaid will be better in Year 2

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, though, is having none of the comfortable conversation. He dismisses it. He debunks it. He discredits it.

“Getting comfortable equals getting complacent, and you never want to get complacent,” he told The Buffalo News. “I’m confident, more than anything.”

A more confident, never-comfortable, always-striving Kincaid is bad news for Bills opponents this year.

Kincaid, the Bills’ first-round pick in 2023, caught 73 passes as a rookie, but scored just two touchdowns. Match the catch total, and the revamped offense will have success. Triple or quadruple the touchdown total, and the Bills will remain atop the AFC East.

It is a pressure that was ratcheted up in most fantasy football leagues and the actual NFL the moment the Bills shipped receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. The questions began.

Who replaces Diggs’ massive output?

Diggs caught at least 103 passes in each of his four Bills seasons, and averaged just under 9.3 touchdowns. The passing game started with him, which became a detriment late in the year when his big-play production plummeted (no touchdowns in the final seven games, including the postseason). It will be a community effort to replace him.

Who becomes Allen’s priority option?

The more important question. Diggs had at least 154 targets in those four seasons. It was as though the Bills’ play-callers, mostly justified, had a “Diggs” section to their game plan, followed by an “Everybody Else,” section.

The answer to that question entering Sunday’s season opener against the Arizona Cardinals should be Kincaid, a nod to his emerging ability (match-up issue) and versatility (put him anywhere).

“If that’s what we need to win a game, that’s what I’ll do,” Kincaid said of embracing the responsibility of being a go-to guy. “But everybody on this offense is going to eat. That’s been our motto and, I think, throughout the year, what people will see is everybody succeeding.”

A noble approach and attitude, but a lap around the Bills’ locker room confirms the external thought that No. 86 is primed to be Allen’s No. 1 target.

“He’s just such a dynamic weapon,” tight end Dawson Knox said.

“The sky’s the limit for Dalton,” fullback Reggie Gilliam said.

“He’s going to be ‘The Truth’ in this league,” tight end Quintin Morris said.

The first truth about Kincaid’s rookie season: He was mostly consistent. Played in 18 of the Bills’ 19 games. Played more than half of the snaps in 16 games. Caught at least one pass in 17 games. It was a positive start to his career. His 73 catches were tied for seventh among tight ends.

The second – and harsher – truth about Kincaid’s rookie season: He didn’t make many big plays. Among the 19 tight ends with at least 50 catches, his 9.2-yard average and two touchdowns both ranked 16th.

Including the playoffs, only 10 of Kincaid’s 81 catches (12.3%) were so-called explosive gains (at least 16 yards). Players with a higher rate were Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson (21 of 95, 22.1%), Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (24 of 93, 25.8%) and Cleveland’s David Njoku (19 of 81, 23.5%).

In Kincaid’s range were Arizona’s Trey McBride (16 of 81, 19.7%) and a fellow rookie, Detroit’s Sam LaPorta (15 of 86, 17.4%, plus 10 touchdowns). Jacksonville’s Evan Engram led all tight ends with 114 catches, but only 13 were considered explosive (11.4%).

As the interim offensive coordinator, Joe Brady may have unlocked something down the stretch of last season, though. Kincaid had six explosive catches in the Weeks 17-18 games against New England and Miami and the wild-card round win over Pittsburgh, gains of 51, 18, 29, 26, 20 and a 29-yard touchdown. He lined up in the slot for four of the catches, and at tight end (two-point stance) for two.

The touchdown against the Steelers was easy pickings and something to watch for this season. Kincaid lined up at tight end (stand-up position) as the inside of a trips look. Knox was outside and ran a shallow cross. Receiver Khalil Shakir (middle) ran a corner route to attract the Pittsburgh safety. That left Kincaid 1-on-1 against linebacker Myles Jack.

“You saw a little bit of it last year, and you see a guy who continues to grow and get more and more comfortable,” Brady said.

Said Bills general manager Brandon Beane: “If you turned on the film early in the season vs. what he was doing late, he made some really good plays down the stretch for us.”

The best way to produce more big plays is getting Kincaid going vertical down the field.

“I’m down for that,” he said.

Last year, 66 of Kincaid’s catches traveled fewer than 10 yards through the air, 12 traveled 10-19 yards and only three were 20 or more yards downfield.

There are myriad ways to put Kincaid in position to make more big plays.

Last season, Kincaid caught 43 passes out of the slot, 15 as a traditional tight end, 13 lined up out wide and two when starting from the backfield. In the playoffs, the breakdown was five (slot), two (wide) and one (tight).

Motioning Kincaid out wide more often to create more open space for a linebacker to cover is an option. The Bills will take any linebacker-Kincaid matchup, regardless of location.

Additionally, Brady is tasked with putting Kincaid in positions to turn short-to-intermediate passes into longer gains. Have Kincaid moving north at the time of the catch so he doesn’t have to rev up.

“He can do it all,” Knox said. “The more we can show with him, the more things defenses have to respect, and the more open those underneath routes become (for other players).”

If the Bills emphasize 12 personnel (two tight ends), expanding Kincaid’s route tree downfield will help players such as Knox and slot receiver Khalil Shakir. If Kincaid gets off to a fast start, he will begin to impact games by attracting extra coverage.

“It’s going to be a little different,” NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth said of the Bills’ passing game. “I think Dalton Kincaid is going to have to have a major role as we move forward here. (Coach) Sean McDermott has proven to me that he can build a defense, even though he was missing key parts. I think Joe Brady has a chance now to prove the same thing on the offensive side.”

A projection for Kincaid should be in the range of 85 catches, which should put him around 1,000 yards. It would represent a positive step forward for the present and future.

Kincaid is one of nine tight ends taken in the first round since 2014. Njoku went from 32 catches-385 yards-four touchdowns for Cleveland in 2017 to 56-639-4 in 2018. Hockenson went from 32-367-2 for Detroit in 2019 to 67-723-6 in 2020. Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts saw his production plummet from 1,026 yards to 356 because of seven missed games.

Among the top nine tight ends in all-time catches, Dallas’ Jason Witten increased his production from 35-347-1 to 87-980-6. The Chargers’ Antonio Gates (24-398-2 to 81-964-13), New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham (31-356-5 to 99-1,310-11) and New England’s Rob Gronkowski (52-546-10 to 90-1,327-17) also made big jumps.

“I think it’s just the feel of the game,” Beane said. “It probably varies for different tight ends, but I would say (Kincaid is) more of a receiving tight end for us, and I’m going to relate it to the receiver world, and he just has a feel for how guys are going to play him, what people are trying to do against him. And then just more comfort in the system helps you play faster and you’re thinking less.”

Knox was the Bills’ third-round pick in 2019. His big jump was from Year 2 (24-288-3) to Year 3 (49-587-9).

“There is just so much on a tight end’s plate with the run game, pass game, lining up anywhere – a lot of responsibilities,” Knox said. “It’s about getting the playbook down and recognize more what the defense is doing, instead of just focusing on yourself and trying to line up in the right spot.”

Kincaid pointed out one thing working for him.

“Being in the best situation playing with Josh helps a lot,” he said. “In a system that is tight end friendly, you can’t not use the tight ends.”

Teammates marvel watching practice and game video at Kincaid’s ability to get open.

“He has this slippery way,” Morris said. “It doesn’t look like anything crazy, and then the ball is in the air and he has five yards of separation.”

Said Gilliam: “His biggest strength is how quick he is out of his breaks against anybody – a corner, a safety, a linebacker. Very fluid. No choppy steps. I’ll see him on a route and he breaks in and he doesn’t chop his feet. Very smooth.”

A very smooth transition from Year 1 to Year 2 is in the offing for Kincaid, a chance for him to join the elite level of tight ends.

“He’s just so talented,” Knox said. “We can put him anywhere, and he’ll figure it out and do great. We’ll get him going more than last year.”

A look at how first-round tight ends since 2014 have fared in the first two years of their career:

A look at the top nine tight ends in all-time catches and their statistics in Years 1 and 2. (Note: Kansas City’s Travis Kelce, who ranks fourth, played in one game as a rookie):

*Members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame