Tips against the spread for every game

Here we are with Season 31 of The Post's NFL Bettor's Guide. When I started this column in 1994, Dan Reeves and Pete Carroll were the coaches in New York, the league had only 28 teams, and kickoffs didn't resemble two long lines at the bench (that existed back then…IYKYK).

The first game on the list is the Vikings at the Giants on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. Thanks to Hard Knocks, we know that the team GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll are putting on the field isn't quite what they had in mind. They opted for the injury-recovering Daniel Jones after unsuccessfully trying to move up in the draft to select one of the best quarterbacks.

We also saw that Daboll wanted to keep Tyrod Taylor as a backup, even though Schoen presented him with several options, including the final answer, Drew Lock. Taylor signed with the Jets.

On the other hand, the Giants accomplished much of what they wanted to accomplish in the offseason. They had no interest in paying Saquon Barkley and instead brought in the serviceable Devin Singletary, who was productive in Buffalo in the Daboll scheme. In Malik Nabers, they have their most dangerous wideout since Odell Beckham Jr. And while there are still questions about the offensive line and back defense, the consideration of adding Brian Burns to Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux on offense was solid.

Sunday's opponent, the Vikings, traded with the Jets for JJ McCarthy, but the former Michigan quarterback is already out for the rest of the season, leaving Sam Darnold, already on his fourth team, at quarterback.

The Giants have had good results against a better version of the Vikings recently, with a near win late in the 2022 season followed by a surprise road win in the playoffs. This will likely be a losing season, but Big Blue is worth a bet as a small underdog in the opener.

The Pick: Giants +1.5 (-110, Fanatics)

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) against Jacksonville Jaguars: This isn't an attack on Trevor Lawrence or the Jaguars, but their defense won't be able to keep up with the speed of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane for three hours in 90-degree Miami heat.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: The Steelers defense is expected to be tough, and TJ Watt will put pressure on the Falcons' new quarterback, Kirk Cousins, who is coming back from injury and playing in a new system. Mike Tomlin is considered an underdog and is tipped to win at 64.3%. Atlanta has chosen Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick.

Carolina Panthers (+4) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: NFC South duel where the points could be decisive for the “Dog”. Bryce Young is no longer a rookie and new coach Dave Canales is showing promising signs, while we know that Dennis Allen of the Saints (7-15-1 ATS as favorite) is at the bottom of the list.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-8.5) vs. New England Patriots: This is a matchup that would likely have a 14-point lead if it had taken place in Week 4 and things had gone as projected, so this number seems cheap to bet against a team that is likely heading for the first pick in the 2025 draft.

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) against CHICAGO BEARS: Tough situation for new Titans coach Brian Callahan in his debut, but he has a chance to diversify the offense with Tony Pollard replacing Derrick Henry and QB Will Levis entering his second year. All the hype surrounding Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze and this Bears team could hurt them a bit in the early going.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) against BUFFALO BILLS: Although the Cardinals won only four games in Jonathan Gannon's first season as coach, they were 9-8 against spread teams with clear wins over the Cowboys, Steelers and Eagles. Now they have Marvin Harrison Jr. to back up a healthy Kyler Murray. Josh Allen may need some time to get back on his feet after the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3) vs. Houston Texans: According to VSiN's Steve Makinen, the underdogs in the division are 18-9-2 at home and 23-6 ATS in Week 1 since 2009. This is the only game on the list that meets those expectations. The teams split two games last year, but the Texans only had to face Anthony Richardson for one full quarter.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) beat LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Another division underdog, this time on the road, and another chance to end the hype surrounding Jim Harbaugh in Week 1. The new coach will face a Raiders-friendly crowd at SoFi Stadium, and Justin Herbert will be looking for new weapons to replace Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler.

Denver Broncos (+6) vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Kicking off the Mike Macdonald era in Seattle after 14 seasons and 246 regular season and playoff wins for Pete Carroll. Although Macdonald is taking over a solid team and it's difficult to pick a rookie quarterback making his debut in this stadium, I believe Bo Nix is ​​a perfect fit in Sean Payton's offense and he'll keep it close.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) against Washington Commanders: As much as I'd like to have Jayden Daniels and Washington's roster to be a little better than it used to be, the Bucs are still a team that beat the Eagles and did well against the Lions in the playoffs, with Baker Mayfield throwing for 686 total yards.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) against Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas' biggest offensive force, tries to pack an entire training camp into one week. Ezekiel Elliott returns after a disappointing season in New England as the RB1, a step behind Pollard. With Tyron Smith now with the Jets, Dak Prescott has Myles Garrett to watch out for.

DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) against Los Angeles Rams: The Lions beat the Rams 24-23 in the playoffs, so I'm not entirely comfortable with that number. Still, I remember Dan Campbell preparing the Lions for that Week 1 upset win in Kansas City last season. And the Rams have some issues at offensive tackle with Alaric Jackson suspended and Rob Havenstein dealing with an ankle injury.

Betting on the NFL?

Monday Night Football

New York Jets (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The 49ers added offensive tackle Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk to the team a few days ago, and Christian McCaffrey could be limited at least somewhat by his calf injury. Nobody knows what this Aaron Rodgers offense will look like, so it's a big risk. But here we go…

Best bets: Dolphins, Panthers, Cardinals.
Castle of the week: Dolphins
Thursday: Chiefs (F)
Friday: Packer (L)

@DaveBlezowNYP

Editor's Note: After providing picks for our NFL Bettor's Guide for the past 27 seasons, The Wildcat has retired. The Post thanks the renowned handicapper for the years of expertise he brought to this section.