MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Diamondbacks vs. Astros – Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for September 8

Sunday Night Baseball: Diamondbacks vs. Astros:

The reigning NL champions and the four-time AL champions since 2017 meet on Sunday Night Baseball when the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Houston Astros. The series finale will pit Ryne Nelson against Justin Verlander, with the Astros hoping for a sweep.

Houston has won the first two games by a combined score of 19-5, and the D-backs are desperate for some consistency in the rotation. Will Nelson put in a good effort tonight in hopes of salvaging one more game in the series?

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How to watch Diamondbacks vs Astros

Where: ESPN

When: Sunday, September 8, 7:10 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks vs Astros MLB odds

Arizona Diamondbacks +124 // Houston Astros -148

In total: 8 (-118/-102)

Game preview Diamondbacks vs. Astros

As good teams and good organizations often do, the Astros flipped the switch at the right time. This team was 12 games under .500 on May 8 and 10 games out of first place on June 20, only to take sole possession of first place a month later. They were six games ahead on Labor Day.

The Diamondbacks are having a similar story this season. They started slowly and were seven games under .500 in June. Since June 1, the Snakes are 54-32 and have the best offense in baseball by several metrics, including weighted on-base average (wOBA). They have never held a lead in the division while chasing the powerful Dodgers, but as one of the Wild Card contenders, they are firmly in the playoff race.

Nelson has been a godsend for Torey Lovullo's club this season. Jordan Montgomery, signed just days before the season began, has not been the investment the front office envisioned. Merrill Kelly has been limited to nine starts. Eduardo Rodriguez has made just six. Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt have been good, but perhaps not as consistent as expected.

But Nelson, who had a 5.31 ERA with a 5.07 FIP over 144 innings last season, has emerged as a legitimate rotation option. He has a 4.15 ERA with a 3.72 FIP in 143 innings this year, so he should set a new record in innings pitched this year to go along with his other improvements. Most notable is his 2.88 ERA in 56.1 innings here in the second half. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts and has pitched more than six innings in each of them.

Verlander is making his 14th start of the season and it seems like the veteran right-hander's time has finally come. He has a 4.52 ERA with a 4.73 FIP over 71.2 innings. His K% is down and his home run rate is up as he still gets a lot of at-bats. That being said, Verlander's hard hit% of 33.2% is the lowest since 2019 and his barrel% of 7.8% is better than league average. He's just a fly ball guy, so the home runs are a byproduct of that.

I like the Diamondbacks here with the new Nelson against Verlander. Both bullpens are well rested and I think both offenses can be successful, but Nelson is on the rise and Verlander is on the decline in many ways.

Selection: Diamondbacks +124

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Player Props

Eugenio Suarez over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-115)

I also like a home run prop with Suarez, who has a .295 batting average with 15 home runs in the second half. Verlander has what are called “reverse platoon splits” because he's a right-handed pitcher who has been hit harder by righties. Righties have a .295/.352/.452 slash line against him this season with a wOBA of .351. For reference, Trea Turner, Teoscar Hernandez and Elly De La Cruz all have a wOBA of around .351.