Sharps relies on Rams and Matthew Stafford in the 2024 NFL season

At first glance, John Murray noticed that many future bets were placed on the Los Angeles Rams winning Super Bowl LIX. But it was only at second glance that he realized that his bookmaker would be tough on the Rams in Las Vegas in 2024.

“Gosh, we don't want the Rams to win the NFC West,” said Murray, the Westgate SuperBook's sports and racing director. “They're betting on the Rams.”

Murray is referring to the “Sharps,” the well-informed bettors known for winning money at Las Vegas betting shops. Thanks to many sharp bets on the Rams, their favorite positions for the Super Bowl rose from 40-1 to 25-1 on Wednesday. According to Murray, there were also many bets on Matthew Stafford as MVP.

“Personally, I was really surprised by that,” Murray said. “It's a tough division. Aaron Donald not being there is a pretty big loss. I mean, he's one of the best defensive players I've ever seen. They have a great coach and I know they've had some good draft picks recently. But I was surprised by how much money was spent on the Rams.”

Donald's retirement this season has gone somewhat unnoticed, which is a testament to how successful Rams GM Les Snead has been with his recent draft picks.

They are well positioned for the post-Donald era, having added two standout defensive players in Kobie Turner and Byron Young, who made a quick impression as rookies last season. The team invested again in the defensive line after spending its first two picks this year on Jared Verse and Braden Fiske.

On the other hand, the Rams are thin at linebacker after the trade of Ernest Jones IV to the Tennessee Titans. There is also uncertainty in the older secondary, which has injury concerns. And let's not forget the departure of Raheem Morris, the former defensive coordinator who became head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. New defensive coordinator Chris Shula will have the daunting task of maintaining a productive defense without relying on Donald's size.

But the pros aren't wrong to give coach Sean McVay and Stafford a chance, especially after what the Rams did last season as one of the surprise teams to make the playoffs. The Rams will challenge the San Francisco 49ers for the division, but it won't be easy after the defending NFC champions signed Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams this week.

As for the team the public is betting on to win, Murray mentioned that the Pittsburgh Steelers are the biggest liability on the Westgate SuperBook this NFL season at 60-1. He also noted a lot of future bets on the home team, the Las Vegas Raiders, who are 100-1 underdog odds to win the Super Bowl in New Orleans.

“Certain teams just have a really big fan base and they have a lot of money in the futures book,” says Murray, who has worked with Westgate for 12 years. “That's the best explanation I can think of as to why we've made so many bets on the Pittsburgh Steelers. … I know the Steelers have a great national fan base, a huge following. I think that's the explanation, because I don't see much there that suggests to me that they can realistically compete for the Super Bowl.”

The Steelers need to build a high-scoring offense to truly contend in the highly competitive AFC. They haven't been very dynamic on that side of the ball in recent seasons, and that's not likely to change with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Arthur Smith as the offensive playmaker.

Surprisingly, Murray says the pros and the public aren't exactly excited about the 49ers, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills winning the Super Bowl. The Bills started 12-1, but now they're 20-1 at Westgate.

“There’s just not much going on with Josh Allen at the moment,” says Murray.

The Los Angeles Chargers are another team that hasn't received much support in terms of future bets, despite hiring Jim Harbaugh and having Justin Herbert at quarterback. That makes sense, because much like Allen, Herbert doesn't have much support around him after the team parted ways with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler in the offseason.

As for trending teams, Murray mentioned that the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans would either win their respective divisions or Super Bowl LIX. But Murray isn't too worried about those bets coming to fruition, as CJ Stroud and Jordan Love might not play as well as they did last year when they had their breakout seasons.

“I think they're both great, but this is the first time the defensive coordinators will be able to evaluate them in the offseason and we'll see what they look like in their second year as starters,” Murray says.

I disagree with Murray when it comes to the Texans, because For me they are the winners of Super Bowl LIX. I admit, however, that this is a difficult bet as there are many talented and experienced teams in the AFC.

If the Texans win it all, I may have to call myself an “expert,” but until then, I'll give NFL betting tips as a football expert who occasionally gets it right. Here's the debut of my betting tips sheet for NFL games.

*Betting odds from DraftKings

Bucking the trend: Stick with the Bears (-4) against the Titans

The Tennessee Titans are considered the odds-on underdogs this week, and that could be because the No. 1 drafted quarterback hasn't won a first-season start in 22 years – a record of 0-14-1.

Caleb Williams will try to end this winless streakwho starts for a revamped Chicago Bears roster that gets to open the season at home. Perhaps no quarterback has gotten into a better situation with the No. 1 pick than the one the Bears created by trading Allen and signing Rome Odunze, as well as many other notable additions. As a reminder, the Bears got the No. 1 pick because of the trade that allowed the Carolina Panthers to draft Bryce Young in 2023.

“I don't think you should read anything into that statistic,” Murray said. “The Bears have talent. They don't have a roster with a bad first-round pick.”

Don't follow the trend on this one. I'm picking the Bears and I'm sure they'll win by more than four points.

Tempting bet: Cardinals (+6.5) at Bills

According to Murray, the Bills received a lot of support at Westgate in Week 1. But the public overlooks the Arizona Cardinals' high potential on offense.

With a healthy Kyler Murray and the arrival of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., they have the firepower to keep the game close. But I'm bullish on this bet largely because of offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, one of the league's up-and-coming playmakers.

Moneyline Dog: Raiders (+130) at Chargers

Yes, Harbaugh has won everywhere he's been, but as mentioned, the Chargers don't have much support for Herbert. This inexperienced offense will face a strong Raiders defense that could be better this season after the spectacular signing of Christian Wilkins.

It could also be a long debut for rookie right tackle Joe Alt against Maxx Crosby. And it helps that Raiders fans love to invade SoFi Stadium. Expect that dog to bark in Week 1.

Not so risky: Lions (-3.5) vs. Rams

Maybe there's some risk here because the Sharps love the Rams so much this season. But the Lions may have the best roster in the NFL and one of the best home ambiences in the league. This is not an ideal first game for the Rams to adjust without Donald.

Stay away: Packers (+110) vs. Eagles (-130) in São Paulo, Brazil

I want nothing to do with this game between two evenly matched teams on a neutral field many miles from U.S. soil. I just don't know what to expect. Both feature valuable free agent running backs in Green Bay's Josh Jacobs and Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley.

Very fascinating game, but there are just too many unknowns.

“I feel the same way as you,” Murray said. “I don't know how anyone can watch a game like that. When these games are played outside the United States, sometimes the field conditions aren't the best. I'm not saying that's going to happen on Friday. Sao Paulo, Brazil, has hosted some great soccer games before.”

“There are 15 more games to choose from this week. I think there are too many unknown variables with this Eagles game.”

Maybe the audience isn't listening here because Murray mentioned that the Eagles suffered a tough loss at the Westgate.

“Right now, it definitely looks like we’re going to be pretty big Packers fans on Friday night,” Murray says.

Parlay: Commanders (+3.5) at Buccaneers; Giants (+2) against Vikings; Falcons (-3.5) against Steelers

Minnesota Vikings fans have not been happy with me since I predicted they would finish 3-14 after the schedule was released in May. This Week 1 game against the New York Giants could show us the direction the Vikings are headed in 2024.

Survivor Pool: Seahawks (-250) vs. Broncos

I'm sure many prefer the Cincinnati Bengals over the New England Patriots in their respective Survivor Pools. But if you're playing in a pool that doesn't allow you to pick the same team twice in one season, you should seriously consider the Seattle Seahawks. This defense is improving under coach Mike Macdonald, and they'll be facing rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

Best Over/Under total: Cardinals-Bills (over 48, -108)

There's also a lot of good to be said about Petzing's offense in Arizona. Don't be surprised if it turns into a highly entertaining shootout.

The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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