Organisation and strengthening of the tropical system in the Gulf

From Sara Tonks, meteorologist at weather.com

4 hours ago

The National Hurricane Center has classified the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico as a potential Tropical Cyclone Six.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Mexican and Texas coast.
Heavy rain showers are already occurring near the Texas coast.
Two further disturbances are observed in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has officially classified the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico as a potential Category 6 tropical cyclone. This system is expected to strengthen and could become a hurricane this week as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The next named storm on the list in the Atlantic basin is Francine.

(MORE: What is a potential tropical cyclone?)

The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the strongest convection, are shown in the brightest shades of red. A cluster of deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.

The storm is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next day. Tropical storm warnings have been issued in Mexico from Barra del Tordo northward to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and in Texas from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield.

Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings are expected to be issued for parts of coastal Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast early Monday.

A warning is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when such conditions are expected within 36 hours.

This storm is expected to move northward throughout the week and reach the coast of Upper Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday as a tropical storm or hurricane. Rainfall from the system could reach 4 to 8 inches, locally as much as 12 inches, from the coast of northeast Mexico to the coast of Texas and Louisiana through Thursday.

The rain will fall on ground saturated by recent heavy rainfall across the region and flash flooding may occur.

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It has been more than two weeks since the last time a named storm (Hurricane Ernesto) passed over the Atlantic basin, but the situation could escalate just in time for the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on September 10.

The NHC is monitoring two other disturbances that could potentially cause tropical effects in the Atlantic. The likelihood of such a development increased in both regions over the weekend, and the impacts could be felt in the Caribbean by the end of the week.

Development now likely in the central tropical Atlantic: Tropical waveThis system is an extensive low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles.

The system has been designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, which allows the application of special computer models. In the first half of next week, the development of tropical storms from this system is becoming increasingly likely. The NHC has now assigned this area a high probability of development within the next 7 days.

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Ininvest 92L is expected to move northwestward during the first half of the week. We will monitor it over the next few days to see how the forecast develops.

Another area of interest is east of Invest 92L and has a medium chance of forming within the next week.