Potential Tropical Cyclone Six forms in the Gulf of Mexico

CNN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six has formed over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, with more than two months remaining of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.

The storm, which formed in the Gulf's Bay of Campeche, was located about 320 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, late Sunday night and reached maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, according to an 11 p.m. ET update from the hurricane center.

“The system is moving northwest at about 5 miles per hour. A slow northwesterly motion is expected over the next one to two days, followed by a turn further to the north,” the hurricane center said.

“The disturbance is forecast to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday and approach the coast of Upper Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday,” the meteorologists added.

The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning for the area from Barra del Tordo in the north to the mouth of the Rio Grande in anticipation of possible impacts.

The United States National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm warning from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, about 60 miles up the coast.

The hurricane center said warnings could be issued for additional areas in southern Texas and Louisiana on Monday.

The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday and further intensify on Tuesday due to very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen to hurricane status before reaching the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast, according to the hurricane center.

The next named storm will be Francine.

An elongated low-pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continued to cause widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, the Hurricane Center said.

The storm's name, “Potential Tropical Cyclone Six,” is used by the Hurricane Center for storms that have not yet formed but are expected to form soon and have impacts within the 48-hour window for warnings to be issued.

The storm comes during an already unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, which has already produced five named storms through mid-August – three of which became hurricanes – and comes just days before the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on September 10.

Data from researchers at Colorado State University show that about 68% of all tropical activity in the Atlantic typically occurs after September 1. The recent activity in the Gulf follows a rare quiet period in the Atlantic, during which no named storms have formed since Ernesto in mid-August.

The warm waters of the southern Gulf, where temperatures are just above 32 degrees Celsius, about 5 degrees above average, contributed to the storm's early strengthening over the weekend.

An Air Force Reserve hurricane fighter aircraft surveyed the system Sunday afternoon, which is still disorganized and cannot yet reap the benefits of these warm water fuels.

Weak steering conditions in the upper atmosphere could cause erratic motions, and it is too early to estimate the system's potential strength or where it might make landfall.

However, “stakeholders along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and the coast of northern Texas and Louisiana should closely monitor the development of this system,” the hurricane center said.

Parts of the northwest Gulf Coast could experience strong winds, dangerous storm surges and flooding as a result of heavy rainfall as early as Tuesday.

Tropical rains are expected to bring 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain, with up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) possible from the coast of far northeastern Mexico to north along parts of the Texas coast and into Louisiana. These rains bring the risk of flash flooding and urban flooding.

Storm surges and rough surf could cause minor flooding along the Mexican coast. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning zone on Mexico's northern coast starting Tuesday.

The storm could affect many of the same areas in Texas that were hit hard by Hurricane Beryl in July, which made landfall southwest of Houston as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing severe flooding and wind damage, as well as causing significant power outages in and around Houston.

For reference, the last season in which two named storms made landfall in Texas was 2020, when Category 1 Hurricane Hanna made landfall near Brownsville and Tropical Storm Beta struck Port Lavaca.

If the storm hits the Texas coast as a hurricane, it would be the first double-whammy in 16 years. The last time two hurricanes hit Texas in the same year was in 2008, with Dolly in Corpus Christi and Ike in Galveston and Houston.

The last named storm to directly hit Louisiana was Category 4 Hurricane Ida in 2021.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring two other systems in the eastern Atlantic.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an extensive low pressure system over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some signs of formation.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for the continued development of this system. “A tropical depression could form as the system meanders across the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then moves predominantly westward for the remainder of the week,” the hurricane center said, estimating the probability of formation in the next seven days at 70%.

Further east, a low pressure system several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is causing a widespread area of ​​irregular showers and thunderstorms.

This system is expected to move little over the next few days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday.

A tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system slowly moves northwest. The hurricane center said there is a 50% chance of this system forming.