Possible Tropical Cyclone Six forms; forecast to quickly develop into a hurricane heading toward the U.S. Gulf Coast

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm on Monday and could develop into a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast mid-week.

The storm, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is located about 300 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and moving north-northwest. It is expected to move off the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday and approach the coast of Louisiana and upper Texas on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said in an alert early Monday.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is ​​expected to bring heavy rains and flash flooding along the coast of northeastern Mexico, southern Texas, southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning, the hurricane center said.

Although it is too early to accurately predict local impacts, the storm's potential for life-threatening storm surges and damaging winds “increases across portions of coastal Louisiana and northern Texas beginning Tuesday night,” the weather service said.

So far, the 2024 Atlantic storm season, which began in June and ends on November 30, has seen five named storms, three of which developed into hurricanes.

Tropical cyclone activity in August was “slightly below normal” in terms of the number of named storms, the hurricane center said. Debby made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region as a Category 1 hurricane before moving offshore and making landfall again in South Carolina as a tropical storm in early August, while Ernesto became a Category 1 hurricane in mid-August as it moved over Bermuda.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecast above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year, predicting a total of 17 to 25 named storms — defined by winds of 39 mph (62 km/h) or more — with eight to 13 of them becoming hurricanes. The above-average activity was forecast due to near-record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, weaker Atlantic trade winds and reduced wind shear.

The next storm will be called Francine.