Tropical Storm Francine forms and threatens Texas and Louisiana

In a hurry? Here's the situation in the tropics in less than a minute.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to form on Monday and threaten the coast of Louisiana and Upper Texas with potentially life-threatening storm surges and hurricane-force winds by midweek.

A tropical warning is in effect for the Mexican Gulf Coast as potential Tropical Cyclone Six slowly moves toward the coast with sustained winds of 50 mph and stronger gusts. Meteorologists predict the storm will drift northeast toward the northwest or northern Gulf Coast with increasing speed by Wednesday evening and will likely become Hurricane Francine upon landfall.

The system could bring 4 to 8 inches of rain, up to 12 inches in some places, and there is a risk of flash flooding in parts of southern Texas, southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, the NHC said. Swell generated by the system is already affecting parts of Mexico's Gulf Coast and is expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast by mid-week, likely bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Although its wind speeds are well above the 63 km/h limit for a tropical storm, the system is not sufficiently organized to be given a name.

AccuWeather predicts the storm will develop into a Category 1 hurricane.

“People in parts of Texas and Louisiana need to be prepared for torrential rain, strong wind gusts, storm surges and the possibility of tornadoes in rainbands,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said in an email Sunday. “This region has dealt with a lot of rain and flooding over the past week. With the ground already saturated, we fear an increased risk of flash flooding and trees with weakened root systems toppling in the wind as this storm makes landfall and moves inland.”

Two other systems, one in the central Atlantic and the other in the east, have medium chances of developing into tropical depressions or stronger over the next week. A stationary front off northeast Florida is keeping scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the coast and is expected to move south, lingering from northwest Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, the NHC said.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

The Tropical Systems: The Hurricane Center's discussion of tropical weather on Sunday mentioned the following areas to watch:

An area of unsettled weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has the potential to develop into a tropical storm.
Storm activity is moving westward in the Central Atlantic over waters with favorable development conditions
Stagnant, disorganized showers are expected to interact with a tropical wave off Africa

Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings are expected to be required for parts of coastal Louisiana and Upper Texas later Monday.

The water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high, which favors the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.

Historically, about two-thirds of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20 and October 10, says Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasting in the Atlantic basin.

Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Six located?

Location: 545 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana
Maximum sustained winds: 50 miles per hour
Movement: North-Northwest at 5 miles per hour
Next note: 11am EDT

Potential tropical cyclone Six spaghetti models

Special note on spaghetti models: Spaghetti models encompass a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.

Expect an increase in tropical activity

The wind shear that helped prevent tropical waves from forming is expected to subside by mid-September.

In addition to the long-awaited transition to the La Niña phenomenon and the reduction in the amount of Saharan dust, meteorologists expect an increase in tropical activity this month.

The next named storm of the season will be Francine.

Here is the latest update from the NHC as of September 9, 8 a.m. EDT:

What else is there and how likely is it that there will be an increase?

As of 7 a.m. CDT, the center of the disturbance was located near 22.0 degrees north and 94.9 degrees west. The system is moving toward the north-northwest at about 5 mph. Slow northwest-northward motion is expected over the next day, followed by faster northeastward motion beginning Tuesday evening. The disturbance is forecast to move just offshore of Mexico's northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday, reaching the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds will be around 50 mph with stronger gusts. The disturbance is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later today, with further intensification expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The system is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
Probability of occurrence within 7 days: high, 90 percent.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

WIND: Starting Tuesday, tropical storm conditions are possible in the observation area along the northern coast of Mexico and in extreme southern Texas.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNT: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring rainfall of 4 to 8 inches (locally up to 12 inches) from the coast of extreme northeastern Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning. These rainfall events would increase the risk of significant flash flooding and urban flooding.

STORM SURGE: In areas with onshore winds, minor flooding may occur along the coast of Mexico.

SURFING: The swell generated by this system is affecting portions of the Gulf Coast of Mexico and is expected to extend northwestward across the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. This swell is likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Additionally, a low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form as the system meanders across the central tropical Atlantic. By mid-week, the system should move west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
Probability of occurrence within 7 days: high, 70 percent.

A low pressure system several hundred miles west-southwest of Cape Verde is producing a widespread area of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. In a few days, this low pressure system is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave. After that, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form in the middle or later this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low, close to zero percent.
Probability of occurrence within 7 days: medium, 60 percent.

➤ Forecast of excessive precipitation

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – that is, a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colors indicate how likely the development of a system could be: yellow stands for a low probability, orange for a medium probability and red for a high probability.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet developed into a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be affected?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast mid-week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and extent of impacts, the risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds increases across parts of coastal regions of Upper Texas and Louisiana starting Tuesday night. Hurricane and storm surge warnings are expected to be issued for parts of this region on Monday, and residents should make sure they have their hurricane plan ready.

Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Francine forms and threatens Texas and Louisiana

You may also like...

Recent Posts

Tropical Storm Francine forms and threatens Texas and Louisiana

You may also like...

Lily Allen breaks her silence on the ‘death threats’ related to her dog

Former Charleston County deputy in court for manslaughter

Arrest in murder case of owner of LES sneaker boutique

Recent Posts