SpaceX's Polaris Dawn aims for another launch attempt

CNN
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SpaceX is making another attempt this week to lift Polaris Dawn – a risky mission that will send four civilians into the radiation belts and on a historic spacewalk – off the ground.

The daring flight is scheduled to launch no earlier than 3:38 a.m. ET on Tuesday from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, with additional launch opportunities on Tuesday at 5:23 a.m. ET and 7:09 a.m. ET. A SpaceX webcast of the event is expected to begin around midnight on the morning of the launch.

According to SpaceX, additional launch opportunities will be available in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Previous attempts to launch the Polaris Dawn mission in late August were thwarted by a problem with the ground system at the launch site and weather delays. And the weather could again prevent the unprecedented journey from taking off on Tuesday.

According to a post published Sunday by SpaceX on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, the latest forecast puts the probability of adverse launch conditions at 60 percent.

Mission controllers are also closely monitoring the weather outlook off the coast of Florida, where the Polaris Dawn crew will splash down at one of several locations after their five-day journey into space.

“Conditions at potential splashdown sites for Dragon's return to Earth remain a matter of scrutiny,” SpaceX said.

Despite these predictions, Jared Isaacman, the billionaire founder of payments platform company Shift4, said on X on Sunday: “This is a big improvement over the last two weeks. We are getting closer to getting this mission into orbit.”

Isaacman, who is co-funding this mission with SpaceX and is serving as mission commander as a crew member, had previously emphasized the importance of Polaris Dawn taking off in optimal weather conditions for the crew's return.

Because the team relies heavily on oxygen supplies to prepare for and conduct a spacewalk, Isaacman said the Polaris Dawn mission will only carry about five to six days' worth of oxygen on board, requiring a timely return.

The spacewalk, scheduled to begin at the start of the Polaris Dawn crew's third flight day, will mark the first time a private civilian crew has conducted an extravehicular activity (EVA) in space.

Joining Isaacman on this flight are his close friend and former U.S. Air Force pilot Scott “Kidd” Poteet and SpaceX engineers Anna Menon and Sarah Gillis.

Adding to the risk for the Polaris Dawn team is the fact that the crew cabin will fly into the first band of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts after the mission lifts off. It will be the first manned space mission to travel such a long distance since the end of NASA's Apollo program in 1972.

SpaceX must also juggle Polaris Dawn with other commitments at its launch site in Florida.

The company is expected to help launch NASA's Europa Clipper in October, a remarkable robotic mission to explore an icy moon orbiting Jupiter.

But SpaceX's Florida launch site is currently set up for manned spaceflight — the launch pad is configured for a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, the Crew Dragon, and the special crew access arm that allows astronauts to board the vehicle before flight.

Before Europa Clipper can take off, SpaceX must modify the launch pad to make room for a Falcon Heavy, a larger vehicle with three times the power of a Falcon 9.

NASA is expected to provide an update on the Europa Clipper mission at 4 p.m. ET on Monday.