Tropical Storm Francine will soon become a hurricane

Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Storm surge, flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes will impact Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast and the South.

Here is the latest status of this system: Francine is centered about 400 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, and is slowly moving north-northwest. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph at 7 a.m. CDT, making Francine a strong tropical storm.

Most of the rain from this system is still offshore, but some bands have reached parts of southern Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.

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Where watches and warnings are in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. Areas of A storm surge warning is in effect for High Island (Texas) to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana.

These warnings are usually issued when hurricane force winds (wind speeds exceeding 120 km/h) and life-threatening storm surge are likely within the next 36 hours.

Tropical storm warnings and watches are also in effect for much of the western and northern Gulf Coast from northeastern Mexico to the Alabama-Mississippi border. New Orleans is under a tropical storm warning, meaning sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (63 to 117 km/h) are expected there within 36 hours.

The map below shows where hurricane and tropical storm warnings and alerts are currently in effect.

Expected trajectory and intensity: Francine is forecast to continue to gain strength before making landfall as a hurricane somewhere along the Louisiana coast later Wednesday. The effects will be felt long before then. The National Hurricane Center currently predicts that Francine will be a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall.

Very warm Gulf waters are favoring this intensification. Dry air has been a limiting factor for intensification since Monday evening, but Francine is expected to intensify again later Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, once Francine reaches the Gulf Coast, it will face increasing wind shear, potentially limiting its intensity near landfall.

After landfall, the system will spread rainfall across parts of the South and as far north as the Middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys later this week.

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Possible effects

Flood Rain

On Tuesday, heavy rains will hit parts of the coast from southern Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi and southern Alabama and will continue in some coastal areas until Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Rainfall from Francine could reach 4 to 8 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi by Friday morning, with as much as 12 inches locally. New Orleans, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Biloxi, Mississippi, are among the cities that have been issued flood warnings for this heavy rain threat.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread across other parts of the South and into the northern middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys late this week. At least localized flooding is possible in these areas.

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Storm surge

Starting Tuesday night, a life-threatening storm surge will form and inundate low-lying areas along the upper coast of Texas and Louisiana.

According to the National Hurricane Center, flooding in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, could reach heights of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) if the storm surge arrives at the same time as high tide.

This high pressure is expected to arrive within hours before and after landfall late Wednesday, but some parts of the Gulf Coast as far east as Mobile Bay could experience flooding through Thursday morning.

If you are asked to evacuate, follow the instructions of local authorities.

Harmful winds

Areas of southern Louisiana under hurricane warnings could experience hurricane levels by Wednesday afternoon. Complete all preparations in these areas by Tuesday evening, when tropical storm force winds could develop.

These winds can knock down trees and knock out power in southern Louisiana. Prepare now for power outages that could last several days after the storm passes through this area.

Tropical storm-force winds are possible near the coast of South Texas, other parts of South and Central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and the Texas coast. Isolated power outages and tree damage are possible in these areas, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Possible tornadoes

Tropical cyclones making landfall often produce a few tornadoes near the coast and inland. An isolated tornado threat from this system could develop in southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle by Wednesday or Wednesday night.

The isolated tornado threat could continue Thursday in eastern Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

For the first time in a while

F​rancine was the first Atlantic storm since Ernesto moved into the North Atlantic on August 20.

According to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry, it has been 30 years since the Atlantic basin last experienced the first full week of September without active tropical cyclones.

And tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University noted that the last time there were no storms in the Atlantic basin from August 13 to September 8 was 1968.