What voters think about Harris and Trump ahead of the debate: NPR

Seven in 10 Americans say they will watch the first presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump on Tuesday, and three in 10 say it will influence their voting decision, according to a new poll by NPR/PBS News/Marist out of.

Trump continues to have the upper hand on many fundamental issues in this election – he is more trusted on economic issues, immigration, and dealing with the Middle East. And people who want a strong leader favor him by a wide margin.

These advantages could swing the election in an ordinary Republican's favor. Instead, the race remains a gamble because Trump is such a polarizing figure.

Harris is slightly more popular, seen as someone who cares “more about people like you,” seen as the candidate who most represents change, and has a large lead among those who say they want an “honest and trustworthy” leader. She also has a larger lead than Trump on the other issues she was asked about, on abortion rights.

Harris has her own weaknesses, notably that more people see her as “too liberal” than Trump as “too conservative,” including 50 percent of independents. This is despite her efforts to stay in the middle on a range of issues, including immigration, foreign policy and fracking, to win over moderate voters in key swing states.

She will likely be pressed on these issues in this debate because when she ran for president in 2019, she took more liberal positions in a Democratic primary. Harris would say she has traveled the country since her time as vice president, learned more and evolved on some issues. But it will be up to her to make her case in this debate.

All of this underscores the importance of this debate, which carries risks for both candidates, in front of what is likely to be one of the largest – if not the largest – television audiences of the presidential campaign so far.

The poll was conducted September 3-5. Marist surveyed 1,529 American adults via cellphone, landline and online poll panels in English and Spanish. The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points, meaning results could be about 3 percentage points higher or lower.

More than 8 out of 10 say they would definitely vote

An overwhelming majority of respondents said they will definitely vote this election – 82%. Harris supporters are slightly more likely to say so, at 85%, compared to 77% of independents.

Harris is ahead by three percentage points among those who will definitely vote, but there are warning signs for both her and Trump regarding voter turnout.

Younger voters are the least likely to vote – only 65 percent of those under 35 said they will definitely vote. Black and Latino voters also lag behind in their willingness to vote (73 percent and 77 percent, respectively). However, Harris benefits from a 50 percentage point lead over Trump among black voters and is 20 percentage points ahead among white college-educated voters.

This is a group that President Biden won by only 3 points in 2020, According to post-election polls. And they are among the most likely to vote – 94% said they would definitely vote. Harris does exceptionally well among white college-educated women, but she also does well among white college-educated men.

Trump won the group by 3 points in 2020, but Harris leads these men by 10 points in this poll.

White voters without a college degree are one of Trump's strongest core groups, but they are about ten percentage points less likely to vote than white voters with a college degree.

Large gender differences and swing voters from Latin America

The race between the two candidates remains what it always was – close. 49 percent say they prefer Harris and 48 percent lean toward Trump.

Harris is supported by women overall. She is ahead by 15 percentage points among women, while Trump is ahead by 12 percentage points among men.

Women traditionally make up a slightly larger share of the electorate. Biden lost among men in 2020, but only by 8 percentage points, so Harris will likely have to do slightly better among men.

Latino voters are emerging as a potential X-factor. They are crucial in the southwestern swing states of Arizona and Nevada. Trump leads in the poll, 51% to 47%, with Harris ahead by 16 percentage points last month. It's important to note that subgroups in national polls have very high margins of error. For Latinos in this poll, it's +/- 8.2 percentage points, meaning the results could be 8 percentage points higher or lower, a range of 16 percentage points.

Harris is slightly more popular

After a month in which over $100 million was spent on advertising to define Harris, she is holding up pretty well. The electorate is split: 47% have a positive opinion of her, 46% have an unfavorable one.

On the other hand, 45 percent have a positive impression of Trump, while 50 percent have a negative one.

Among the vice presidential candidates, Democrat Tim Walz's approval rating is +4 (40% to 36%), while Republican JD Vance remains 10 points behind (34% to 44%).