Crime after Proposition 47 and the pandemic

Growing crime concerns and headlines have prompted California to consider rolling back some of its decades-long reforms, particularly Proposition 47. This report highlights the impact of Proposition 47 on the 10-year anniversary of the reform, as well as the broad and profound impact of the criminal justice system's public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it does not evaluate Proposition 36 or any recently passed or proposed legislation.

Potential cuts are primarily aimed at the rise in shoplifting, but also at drug-related offences. That is, the proposals aim to increase penalties for certain property and drug-related offences. Whether these measures achieve their aim will depend on the factors contributing to a rise in certain crimes.

We examined whether certain factors led to increases in crime: declining prison and jail populations, lower likelihood of arrest for property crimes, and fewer arrests for drug offenses. Our analysis goes beyond the years surrounding Prop 47 and examines outcomes after public health responses to the COVID pandemic. The latter is important because the magnitude of pandemic-related impacts on incarceration and prosecution of drug and property crimes was mostly larger than those caused by Prop 47.

We find that the lower theft clearance rates resulting from Prop 47 led to a slight increase in property crime (clearance rates indicate the proportion of reported crimes that result in an arrest and indictment, a measure that can be thought of as the likelihood of an arrest) during the first two years of the reform, along with an increase in theft of auto accessories (3%, or about 40% of the total increase of 3,600 thefts) and auto burglaries (2.1%, or about 12% of the increase of 35,300 auto burglaries).

Cars also became increasingly targeted as incarceration and law enforcement policies changed in response to the pandemic. Auto thefts increased 1.6 percent as the prison population fell, a fraction of the 32 percent national increase of about 41,000 auto thefts between 2019 and 2022. Lower theft clearance rates led to a much larger increase (7.3%) in thefts of auto accessories such as catalytic converters, but also accounted for only a small portion of the overall 89 percent increase (up about 47,000 incidents). The decline in theft clearance rate also affected auto burglaries, down 3.9 percent.

Importantly, we find no evidence that changes in drug arrests under Prop 47 or the pandemic have led to an increase in crime.

Factors contributing to the increase in shoplifting

Property crimes related to shoplifting are currently at the center of political discussions in California. However, our estimates suggest that shoplifting reduced by 2.2 percent during the first two years after Prop 47, a surprising result that may reflect that retailers are less likely to report this crime in jurisdictions with low theft clearance rates—where reporting an incident may not result in consequences. Because shoplifting is limited to incidents where the value of the stolen merchandise is $950 or less (defined in the state's penal code as a result of Prop 47), law enforcement may instead report shoplifting incidents where the stolen merchandise is worth over $950 as commercial burglary because these incidents can be charged as aggravated second-degree burglary. The 3 percent increase in commercial burglaries as a result of Prop 47's declining theft clearance rates fits this theory, as does the notable and concurrent increase in the proportion of commercial burglaries that occurred during the day.

Conclusion: Lower detection rates not impact on shoplifting, we must assume that the number of shoplifting incidents that retailers report has largely remained unchanged, even as the consequences become increasingly unlikely. Although weak evidence suggests that shoplifting increased after the prison population declined (5.1%), this change was limited to 2015, the first year after Prop 47. Again, a lower number of actual shoplifting incidents reported in later years may be responsible. Unfortunately, given the lack of data that accurately, completely, consistently, and credibly capture shoplifting, it is impossible to reliably assess the role of Prop 47 in shoplifting.

A stronger and broader impact on shoplifting is seen following public health responses to the pandemic, using changes in commercial burglaries as a proxy. As the prison population and burglary clearance rates declined, overall commercial burglaries increased by 5.3 percent, about one-third of the increase observed during that period. Some weak evidence also suggests that an increase in commercial burglaries in 2021 is related to low clearance rates. Unlike Prop 47, we find no evidence of a countervailing impact on reported shoplifting.

A look beyond imprisonment

We find no convincing evidence that lower incarceration rates after Prop 47 had a larger impact on crime (auto burglaries are an exception) than realignment (Lofstrom and Raphael 2013). The even larger declines of 45,000 inmates ushered in by the pandemic also do not appear to have had a larger impact on property crime than realignment or Prop 47 (increases of about another 2,200 auto thefts and 1,600 commercial burglaries). While this is encouraging, we also note that our estimates suggest some weak (only marginally statistically significant) evidence of effects of prison population reductions on violent crime (robbery and aggravated assault) in 2021. While this is far from strong and convincing evidence of a link between the reduction in incarceration rate and the increase in violent crime, the state has seen an increase in this type of crime since the pandemic, and more work is needed to identify contributing factors.

Efforts to find evidence-based alternatives to incarceration, including addressing ongoing law enforcement staffing shortages, should be considered. Police staffing has a powerful deterrent effect on crime, particularly violent crime (Chalfin and McCrary 2018). Other strategies that may prove effective include preventive interventions with at-risk youth, people with behavioral and substance abuse problems, and other target groups. Importantly, efforts funded by state prison savings may have counteracted some increases in crime and led to better outcomes for offenders. Rigorous evaluation of these funded efforts and dissemination of these findings should be emphasized and prioritized.

Prioritizing enforcement decisions

Prosecutions for property and drug crimes declined sharply as a result of Prop 47 and the pandemic; the likelihood of arrest for theft also declined significantly, leading to a moderate but overall increase in property crimes.

Prop 47's reclassification of some property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors may have contributed to lower arrest and clearance rates. For example, arrests for property crimes such as shoplifting—with some exceptions, such as so-called citizen's arrests—are subject to stricter requirements than for felonies: an arrest requires the officer to have been present at the crime or there must be a warrant for the suspect issued by a judge. In addition, the adjustment of the severity of some property and drug crimes from felonies to misdemeanors may have influenced the priorities of criminal justice actors such as police officers, prosecutors, and courts, as voters signaled that drug and property crimes should be viewed as less serious offenses that require different responses than before.

Similar signals were sent during the pandemic, although this time they were prompted by public health concerns as the coronavirus posed serious challenges to criminal justice systems. State and local policies to contain the spread of COVID included reducing interactions between police officers and the public, as well as arrests and admissions (Premkumar et al. 2023).

Police officers' decisions and discretion reflect all of these factors. How to respond to a 911 call, what investigation to conduct, and whether to arrest and try a property crime suspect are all decisions about how to use limited resources, including time and energy. The decline in police officers in California may have led to a need to prioritize more serious crimes. Disentangling the impact of all of these factors on law enforcement and their ability to solve cases is a much-needed effort for the future.

The unintended consequences of the reform

Changes in enforcement and incarceration, whether as a result of Prop 47 or the criminal justice system's responses to the pandemic, may also have had unintended consequences beyond the impact on crime. While Prop 47 saved the state $800 million in prison spending that funded some drug treatment, it may have led to lower participation in drug courts. If that was the case, fewer individuals may have received and completed necessary treatment for their drug addiction. Experts have raised concerns that the incentive to participate and complete drug court treatment may have decreased when sentences were reduced after some drug and property crimes were reclassified from felonies to misdemeanors; some evidence supports these concerns (Arnold, Benally, and Friedrich 2020). And while incarceration rates have declined, the proportion of inmates with mental health problems in county jails has increased (Lofstrom and Martin 2023). Homelessness may also have increased. These are social impacts that research has not yet examined in detail.