The race for the Senate seat in Maryland is a neck-and-neck race.

After popular former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced his candidacy for Senate, it was clear that a poll would come out sometime this summer that would send Democrats into a panic. That poll came out just before Labor Day.

In a poll commissioned by AARP and conducted by a bipartisan polling team, Hogan and Democratic county supervisor Angela Alsobrooks were tied at 46 percent each in the race for the Maryland Senate seat. The poll showed Hogan still defying gravity remarkably in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. The same poll even found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the presidential race by an exact 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 32 percent.

In statewide elections for federal offices in Maryland, that 2-1 Democratic advantage has become a reality. President Joe Biden defeated Trump in the state in 2020, 66 percent to 32 percent. Senator Chris Van Hollen won re-election in 2022, 65 percent to 34 percent. Senator Ben Cardin, the retiring Democrat whom Alsobrooks and Hogan are seeking to replace, won re-election in 2018, 65 percent to 30 percent.

If anything, Hogan will certainly end this trend of clockwork-like imbalance in November. But win? Gravity doesn't give up that easily.

Since the AARP poll, another poll has been released that gives Alsobrooks a little more room ahead of Hogan. The more recent poll released this week by Gonzales Research shows Alsobrooks leading 46 percent to 41 percent. While these polls do not offer very Different snapshots of a close race, but there was one important event between them. The last day AARP was in the race was the day Alsobrooks spoke at the Democratic National Convention, while the poll on Gonzales was conducted entirely after the Democratic National Convention.

Alsobrooks' prime-time speech at the DNC was part of a larger effort to make her known not only on the national stage, but in Maryland as well. Despite having served as the governor of a politically significant Maryland district, Prince George's County, and winning a high-profile Senate primary against a human ATM, Rep. David Trone, Alsobrooks remains far under-recognized by voters compared to Hogan.

Everyone in Maryland knows who Larry Hogan is, and most people like him. In the AARP poll, Hogan — who served as governor from 2015 to 2023 — is viewed favorably by 59 percent to 28 percent. In the Gonzales poll, it's 50 to 19. His margins have been that way, if not better, for about a decade. What was also impressive about Hogan's numbers was that they're about even on the ideological scale, with Republicans, Democrats and independents viewing him favorably by roughly equal margins. And in the Gonzales poll, only 2 percent of respondents didn't recognize his name.

Alsobrooks also has positive approval ratings, but is much less well-known among voters. While she is rated 41 percent to 16 percent favorably in the Gonzales poll, 34 percent of voters do not know her name. And the “never heard” numbers are about the same in the AARP poll.

This is not exactly bad This isn't news to Alsobrooks, though, as it suggests she still has room to grow. If the best Hogan can manage at full name recognition (and widespread approval) is a draw, where will he go if Alsobrooks catches up?

“Alsobrooks now has the opportunity to introduce himself to voters across the state for the first time — the people who are just tuning in, the people who may not have been watching their primaries but are now tuning in because of the upcoming presidential election,” Mileah Kromer, the director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, told me.

What also has Alsobrooks on her side – which wasn't necessarily the case before July 21 – is “the growing enthusiasm among Democrats,” Kromer added.

In a state as unequal as Maryland, Hogan cannot win the election simply by winning over the independents. He Is Both polls say he would win. But that wouldn't be enough. The “path to victory,” says Kromer, “is through the Democratic Party. He can't win without 25 to 30 percent of Democrats.” This is confirmed by both polls. In the AARP poll, where both parties were tied, Hogan won 26 percent of Democrats. In the Gonzales poll, where Hogan was behind, he won 21 percent of Democrats.

That number – Hogan’s share of the Democratic vote – provides the context in which to view the campaign and is the battleground on which his messages will be spread.

To get the Democratic vote he needs, Hogan's campaign has gone beyond simply portraying himself as a moderate Republican. He has sided with Democrats on key issues, calling himself “pro-choice” and saying he would vote for codification. roe protections into law. In one of his latest commercials, he called himself an “early critic of Trump” and one of the few Republicans who “never caved” to Trump. At the same time, he talked about how he sent the Maryland National Guard to help during the “horror” of January 6.

In another commercial—which Kromer and I both watched endlessly during broadcasts of Baltimore Orioles games—Hogan says, “The Republicans can’t count on my vote.”

Alsobrooks' core message is that even if you believe Hogan's statements about abortion access (which the Alsobrooks campaign says you shouldn't), that is not the core issue. The issue is that if Larry Hogan wins, Republicans will almost certainly win control of the Senate. A vote to codify roe Protective measures and other issues would not even be put to a vote.

Whether your name is Larry Hogan in Maryland this year or Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana, winning a Senate seat in hostile partisan territory in a high-turnout presidential election year ultimately requires sleight of hand. No amount of pledges to be independent will change the fact that the election of either candidate could give their respective party control of the Senate. It doesn't take any of the usual campaign hyperbole to describe what's at stake; this isn't “spin.” It's about counting.

So Alsobrooks doesn't have to convince Marylanders that Hogan is actually a Trump supporter in disguise – a difficult argument that fell flat during Hogan's overwhelming re-election in the 2018 gubernatorial election. Nor does she have to search for the elusive means of tarnishing Hogan's popularity. As Alsobrooks said in a recent appearance on CNN, “This is so much bigger than Larry Hogan.”

“There are so many issues now that Republicans [in charge]led by Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz – Lindsey Graham would be [presiding] through the Judiciary Committee – would really set this country back, and they would control the agenda of the country,” Alsobrooks said. “And electing Larry Hogan would give those Republicans control.”

Alsobrooks and the Democrats in Maryland are making the right argument. They just need to make sure they get it across. At the moment, Hogan is competitive in the polls because a significant number of Democrats have fond memories of him and are happy to have more independent-minded people in the Senate. They are not thinking about control of the office.

“I don't think Marylanders are thinking about control of the Senate when they go to the polls. That's not what's most important to them,” Kromer said. “But that's what we have campaigns for. That's what campaigns are for. That's exactly what the Alsobrooks campaign is doing: making sure that the casual voter who might vote in presidential election years understands their arguments.” If the Democrats' message gets through in the next two months, then the traditional frightening August poll would only be a Footnote.