Pac-12 expansion explained: How did it start, what are the financial implications, what's next?

In a surprise move, it was announced Wednesday night that Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State will leave the Mountain West Conference to join Oregon State and Washington State in the Pac-12 ahead of the 2026-27 academic year.

This latest round of conference realignment follows the collapse of the Pac-12 last summer, which was set in motion the year before when UCLA and USC announced their move to the Big Ten.

Here you can find out what you need to know about the move.

Go to:
What set this in motion? | Finance
Value of the conference | Which other schools could participate?
What’s next for the Mountain West

What set this in motion?

When Oregon State and Washington State sued the Pac-12 last year to lose control of the conference board after eight schools left the league, they said in their filings that they wanted to rebuild the conference. That didn't mean they actually wanted to implement such a plan. But it was always an attractive option, even if it would be difficult to implement.

The NCAA requires conferences to have at least eight members, and after the Pac-12 fell apart, it was given a two-year grace period to exist below the minimum. That time frame dictated how quickly the conference had to act to continue to exist.

What are the finances like?

That's one reason why several industry sources have been dubious about this particular path. Under the MWC's bylaws, departing schools must pay $18 million in severance pay if they give two years' notice. That amount doubles if the notice period is shorter. The departing schools here expect to owe $18 million each, totaling more than $70 million, plus the more than $40 million the Pac-12 owes the Mountain West in poaching fees that were part of the conferences' scheduling arrangements for this season.

The idea that the Pac-12 (OSU and WSU) and the schools leaving the MWC would raise that much money was dismissed by many in the industry. Last year, several sources cited those fees as a deal breaker for this type of rebuilding. Obviously, they were wrong.

It is expected that the Pac-12 will be able to help schools with exit fees, partly due to fees retained for distributing media rights to departing members and other conference assets.

What value will the new conference have for media rights partners?

And here's where it gets even more interesting. These six schools wouldn't have paid the MWC more than $100 million to get to this point if they weren't convinced that the possibility of higher media rights payments would be worth it in the end. Also, consider that the MWC will likely try to withhold media rights distribution from the departing schools over the next two years, as it did in 2011 when BYU, TCU and Utah all left, and as it should have done when San Diego State flirted with a move to the Pac-12 last year.

The departing schools expect to receive about $10 million annually in the Pac-12. That amount was disclosed to schools by Navigate, a private sports consulting firm hired by the conference. How accurate that projection is remains to be seen, but it would be about double what the MWC currently distributes.

Who else will the Pac-12 target?

They'll likely aim high and slide down the list. Cal and Stanford would be the dream acquisitions, but making that happen would be extremely complicated since they just moved to the ACC, which is party to four lawsuits related to the potential departures of Clemson and Florida State. It's fair to wonder, though, if Cal and Stanford might regret their decision to join the ACC, considering they'll only receive 30% of the league's media rights distributions over the next seven years (in 2022-23, the ACC distributed an average of $44.8 million per school). While the ACC schools are closer together academically than the newly formed Pac-12, it's debatable how much that really matters in the bigger picture.

The more realistic targets are Tulane and Memphis. But those two will need a much clearer picture of financial standing to leave the AAC than the threshold used by the four MWC schools. It would be appealing to build the top football league outside of the Power 4, but it would still have to make financial sense. UTSA's location makes it a good choice.

Among the remaining MWC schools, UNLV is still seen as a likely candidate to move. It meets all the criteria, but that it was not in that first wave is telling. MWC's position is much weaker today than it was yesterday, and that could be used as leverage to bring in UNLV — or other MWC schools — with lower annual distribution rates, like Cal and Stanford in the ACC. Air Force may be the other MWC school that is most attractive.

What’s next for the Mountain West?

As it stands, membership will be eight in two years: Air Force, Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming. Another transfer would put the conference below the NCAA minimum required, giving it a two-year grace period – like the Pac-12 now – to grow back to at least eight.

There was already speculation that members might try to dissolve the conference – a process that requires a 75% majority – to avoid exit fees to join the Pac-12. But that would have required nine teams to be on board. That's even less likely now that the departing members are unlikely to have voting rights.

The money from the Pac-12 raid could help rebuild the conference – according to the Pac-12 concept – but it is too early to say what that will look like in the long term.