Five Buffalo Bills to keep an eye on with the Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills nearly fell in their first game of the 2024 NFL season, but after a thrilling 34-28 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, they have no time to rest on their laurels. The Bills head to Florida this week to face the Miami Dolphins in a “Thursday Night Football” showdown that will give one of those contenders an early lead in the race for the 2024 AFC East division.

Three of the four AFC East teams were victorious in Week 1, as the New England Patriots shocked fans, pundits and KO players everywhere with their victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. The New York Jets were the lone loser, falling 32-19 to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.

Even though it's only Week 2, a divisional game is always important. When it's against the team most people consider to be Buffalo's biggest challenger for the division title, the importance of the contest becomes even greater. Here are five – or so – players we expect to make a big impact this week.

QB Josh Allen

In our companion article on players to watch on the Dolphins, we discussed how Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is performing below his career average against the Bills, while Allen is doing the exact opposite against Miami.

While Allen averages 240 passing yards per game in his career, he averages 280 passing yards per game against Miami. Allen's career quarterback rating is 92.3; against the Dolphins, it's an absurd 110.1 over the course of 12 games. Allen averages 38 rushing yards per game in his career, but against Miami he averages 53 rushing yards per game. Allen has scored 169 passing touchdowns in his career, 33 of which have come against the Dolphins.

Allen has been incredible in his duels with Miami, and after an efficient and spectacular performance in Week 1, he needs to follow up with another outstanding performance.

WR Mack Hollins

Maybe it got a little lost in the hubbub of last week's win, but after rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman led Buffalo's receiver room with 45 offensive snaps, Hollins finished second with his 36 offensive snaps. That was surprising to me, though I don't think it should have been considering how much the Bills have talked about the veteran free agent signing since he arrived.

Hollins only managed two catches for 25 yards, but was only targeted twice. One of those catches came when Hollins broke through single coverage in the middle for a touchdown.

The Bills have used Hollins in every lineup and I expect that to continue this week. I have a sneaking suspicion he will have a bigger game in Week 2.

TE Dalton Kincaid

The presumed No. 1 receiver for Allen entering the season was only targeted twice in the season opener. He caught one pass for 11 yards — and that was a big catch, as he converted a first down on 2nd & 8 to extend a fourth-quarter drive. Kincaid is far too talented to keep throwing one catch and 11-yard lines, and even in an offense where “everyone eats,” the Bills know they have to utilize their supremely talented tight end.

Kincaid did a lot of good things on Sunday, including improving as a blocker and running some fantastic routes. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few early plays where offensive coordinator Joe Brady tried to get the ball to Kincaid (and on Allen's hurdle touchdown, I actually thought we were going to see Kincaid do some Travis Kelce-style shovel action).

DB Cam Lewis

Next man up. Taron Johnson will not be playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, so Cam Lewis comes in, who played exceptionally well in Johnson's place last week. Lewis had 10 tackles and showed some good instincts in the run game. He's a skilled zone coverage player who isn't afraid to step in from the slot in man coverage, either.

Last week, the Bills decided to use cornerback Ja'Marcus Ingram as a dime safety; this week, I wonder if the Bills would use Kaiir Elam as a nickel corner and Lewis as a dime safety in these looks. Lewis is a versatile player, so Buffalo can switch up the other corner position as needed.

Look for the Dolphins to try to isolate wide receiver Tyreek Hill up the middle on Lewis. If that happens, the Bills will be at a significant disadvantage.

CB Rasul Douglas

Thanks to Miami's talented wide receivers, double scoring in the defensive backfield is very important here. Douglas is fully healthy and has a chance to skip a route and make a big play against a quarterback who likes to hit and throw on his back foot.

One reason Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills in his career is because Buffalo and head coach Sean McDermott are incredibly adept at presenting one defensive strategy before the snap and switching to another afterward. A player like Douglas, who has game-winning skills when playing off-man or zone concepts, loves to watch a quarterback like Tagovailoa.

If Tua can believe his eyes, but it's actually Douglas throwing him a decoy, then the Bills could have a big play or two on their hands. The other side of the coin, of course, is that Douglas could get caught with his hand in the proverbial cookie jar on a double play.

I think this is the kind of game where Douglas is on the edge. He might allow a big play, but if he makes one later in the game, it's probably worth the risk.

BONUS: The entire defensive line of the Buffalo Bills

I'm not going to pick one player. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver needs to generate pressure up the middle. Defensive end Greg Rousseau needs to show he's really taken the next step toward elite status by following up a fantastic performance with another. Edge rusher Von Miller needs to prove he's back in form. If the Bills can use defensive end AJ Epenesa more on the outside so he doesn't have to do the dirty work of a defensive tackle on pass attempts, maybe he can impact the game a little more than he did on Sunday.

No matter how you look at it, the pass rush needs to force Tua Tagovailoa to make quick, bad decisions. If they let him sit comfortably, he'll tear the Bills' secondary to shreds. That can't happen if Buffalo wants to return home with a win.