CU's Deion Sanders and CSU's Jay Norvell need victory at Rocky Mountain Showdown

BOULDER — When the bully across the street punches you in the pants on national television, neighbors start to worry. Getting beat up by your little brother? Neighbors start to talk.

“I would say (CU Buffs coach) Deion Sanders needs more (Saturday),” CBS analyst and former NFL lineman Ross Tucker, who is in the booth at the Rocky Mountain Showdown in Fort Collins on Saturday, told me by phone earlier this week. “The reason I say that is because when things started going downhill (in 2023), they really went downhill. (CU) hasn't shown the ability to handle adversity really well and overcome it.

“So if you're a CU fan or a Deion fan and you look at how last year went, you see back-to-back losses to Nebraska and CSU, two of the four teams you beat last year. You have to think about how well they're going to be able to keep the team together and in good shape for the rest of the season. … (It's) not even, 'Here we go again.' It's, 'These are actually two of the teams we beat last year, so we're going in the wrong direction.'”

Neither Sanders nor CSU football coach Jay Norvell want to sit on camera and explain 1-2. Norvell had a bowl team last year that narrowly missed a bowl. He's in his third year with a 9-17 record, no rivalry trophies to his name, a new athletic director and a new president who has taken the Athletics one big swing at a time and hit doubles off the right outfield wall.

The 2024 Showdown is the biggest game at Canvas Stadium since it opened in 2017 – a full house and a packed crowd. Norvell can win a lot of friends in three hours and convert the masses with a magical Saturday night.

It could also send the Coach Prime Experiment into existential crisis mode. CU, a one-touchdown favorite, hasn't lost to the Rams on the football field since 2014. The Buffs haven't lost to CSU and Nebraska in the The same Season since 2009, the beginning of the end for Dan Hawkins. This ain't intramurals, bro.

“It's crazy to think that a lot of these (Buffs) are getting to experience how big the rivalry is this week because they just got there,” Tucker said. “And they didn't get to experience that last year. You think about the (Will) Shephards and the (LaJohntay) Westers and the (new CU) receivers and a lot of guys on the offensive line. I think if anything, the atmosphere at Nebraska last week will help them for the environment they're about to play in.”

Norvell will have more chances to do the right thing. No matter what happens Saturday, the Rams will be favored at home on Sept. 21 when they host UTEP. They will almost certainly be favored at home against New Mexico on Oct. 26; at home against Wyoming, another rival, on Nov. 15; and in the final home game of the regular season against Utah State. At CSU, it's likely a matter of luck at home against San Jose State (Oct. 12), at Air Force (Oct. 19) and at Nevada (Nov. 2).

CU is likely to be the bookmakers' choice only two more times during the remainder of the season: at home against Baylor on September 21 and at home against Cincinnati on October 26.

“It would obviously be huge for Norvell to win,” Tucker said. “But even if they don't, it's still very realistic that they could make a bowl tournament or make a splash in the Mountain West. I think Norvell, even with a loss (to CU), could somehow cope with that by making the postseason for the first time and even making a splash in the Mountain West.”

Coach Prime, on the other hand, has more to lose, especially because of the high standards he immediately set for both the program and himself.

The Buffs have already won as many games under Sanders as they did in 2021 and 2022 combined (five), and in far fewer games. With most coaches and with most restructures, this would be considered solid evidence that the train is moving in the right direction, for a process that will bear fruit over time, as is usually the case with a typical restructure.

Only, nothing is typical in BoCo. After beating TCU, the 2022 College Football Playoff runner-up, in last season's opening game, Coach Prime declared the Buffs changed instantly, transformed instantly, healed almost instantly. A 36-14 win over Nebraska the following week at Folsom Field only seemed to underscore that, and with gusto.

Then came the Rams.