Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Fight prediction, odds, pre-match program, start time, expert tips, live stream

In the 11 years since his debut as the main act in a pay-per-view against Floyd Mayweather, the fighting capital of the world has largely belonged to the commercial presence of Mexican icon Canelo Alvarez.

That trend will continue on Saturday when Alvarez returns for another pay-per-view fight on Mexican Independence Day weekend, this time at the T-Mobile Arena to defend his unified super middleweight title and compete against each other in a historically unique UFC 306 at “The Sphere” at the other end of the world-famous Las Vegas Strip.

The only negative aspect of Alvarez's spectacular return, at least from the perspective of his critics, is his choice of opponent. Edgar Berlanga, a 27-year-old undefeated hitter, goes into the biggest fight of his career against Alvarez as a huge underdog, while opponents more fan-favored by fans – from David Benavidez to Terence Crawford – will have to wait.

The main selling point for this fight is that the 34-year-old Alvarez will add another chapter to the storied boxing rivalry between Mexico and Puerto Rico (the first since he knocked out Hall of Famer Miguel Cotto in 2015). He will face Berlanga, a Brooklyn, New York native who is proud of his family's heritage while also courting the attention of celebrities like rapper Fat Joe.

Regardless of which side of public opinion one is on when it comes to his decisions, Alvarez remains confident and ready to put on another show, some four months after a dominant points victory over undefeated Jaime Munguia on Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas.

“I can't wait for Saturday night, it's going to be a great fight for the people,” said Alvarez. “Mexico against Puerto Rico is always exciting. It's an honor to fight on this day. Mexican Independence Day is very important to us. It's very special and I'm very proud to fight for the Mexican people.”

“I always give 100% in my fights and in training, no matter who I fight. The attitude is the same in every fight. This is no exception.”

While it was never in question whether Berlanga had the commercial potential to one day share the ring with Alvarez, the opportunity came much quicker than anyone could have expected. After beginning his career with a remarkable streak of first-round knockouts in his first 16 fights, Berlanga struggled at times with decision wins in his next five fights and parted ways with original promoter Top Rank by mutual consent.

To his credit, Berlanga quickly signed with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom Sport and reunited with trainer Marc Farrait. He also began a new knockout streak in February by stopping unbeaten Padraig McCrory in the sixth round, and showed no signs of fear when facing Alvarez or exchanging jabs. the build-up to the fight.

“It's going to be a big fight on Saturday and something incredible. We're going to make history and become legends,” said Berlanga. “It means everything to me to be in this position. I shouldn't be here. I was doubted even before I turned pro. But I knew I was bound to end up in this position.”

The experience difference between the two fighters is impossible to ignore, as Alvarez has nearly twice as many career knockouts as Berlanga has victories. But even though Alvarez is the 20-1 favorite, Berlanga has several things in his favor in this matchup, including everything from his youth and 5.5-inch size advantage to his confident demeanor and reputation as a hard puncher.

“I'm a knockout artist. Every fighter wants a knockout,” Berlanga said. “We know he's a legend and we can't just go for the goal. We have to do it right. Knockout in the sixth round, that's our goal. But we're ready for all 12 rounds if we have to.”

Just two years ago, questions were being raised publicly about whether Alvarez was slowing down with age, particularly during a three-fight streak against Dmitri Bivol (Alvarez's first loss since 2013) and decision victories over Gennadiy Golovkin (in their trilogy) and John Ryder. But the hand injury that limited his training during that streak seemed to be the real culprit, as Alvarez has bounced back with convincing wins over Jermell Charlo and Munguia to compete in the top 10 pound-for-pound rankings.

“I just want to show everyone that I'm still the best,” Alvarez said. “I still love this sport. If I stop loving it, you'll know. I love my routine and I love going to the gym every day.”

For Berlanga, this fight is about more than just proving his critics wrong or establishing himself among the sport's true elite for the first time.

“I could be the face of Puerto Rican boxing after Saturday night,” Berlanga said. “I've wanted to do that for many years and now it's my turn to do it.”

The supporting act features many former champions looking to get back on track in interesting duels. Veteran Erislandy Lara puts his WBA middleweight title on the line against another veteran, Danny Garcia, who has only fought one fight since 2022. Former super middleweight champion Caleb Plant is back to fight Trevor McCumby. Former junior welterweight titleholder Rolando “Rolly” Romero will face Manuel Jaimes. And former unified junior featherweight champion moves up to featherweight to face Carlos Castro.

Fight card, odds

• Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (c) -1800 vs. Edgar Berlanga +900, WBC, WBA and WBO super middleweight titles
• Erislandy Lara (c) -250 vs. Danny Garcia +205, WBA middleweight title
• Caleb Plant -1400 vs. Trevor McCumby +750, super middleweights
• Rolando Romero -250 vs. Manuel Jaimes +205, junior welterweight
• Stephen Fulton -900 vs. Carlos Castro +550, Featherweights

Where can you watch?

• Date: 14 September
• Location: T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas
• Start time: 8pm ET
• Here's how you can watch: Prime PPV (Price: $89.95)

forecast

Make no mistake, Berlanga possesses both the size and power to be a problem for Alvarez, especially if the decorated champion takes him lightly or gets involved in a little brawl early on. But those scenarios would really be the extreme and best-case scenario for Berlanga and would require a certain level of intelligence and skill from him that he hasn't shown in a single fight to date.

Unless Alvarez proves himself old in a big fight, it's hard to imagine that happening. Not only is Alvarez incredibly reliable in defense and head movement, he also has one of the best chins in the history of the sport and has never been knocked down, even against power punchers like Golovkin, Danny Jacobs and the much larger Bivol.

If the same Alvarez steps into the ring as he did four months ago in the Munguia fight on Saturday, the reality of his abilities as an efficient sharpshooter and counter-puncher may prove too much for Berlanga.

For all that can be said about Berlanga as an athlete or puncher, he clearly lacks the kind of poise and adaptability needed to succeed at this level, and should he fall behind and feel the need to aggressively fight Alvarez, it would likely only lead to him giving up the fight quicker.

Alvarez admitted this week that he carried Munguia for most of the May fight and made a conscious decision not to finish his fellow Mexican, but given the trash talk between him and Berlanga, that scenario is unlikely.

Selection: Alvarez via TKO8