AL wildcard race: Tigers' playoff chances drop after defeat, but do not collapse

DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers lost their series finale against the Colorado Rockies on Thursday afternoon.

Given the Tigers' precarious position in the race for the playoffs, any defeat would be costly.

But Thursday's loss wasn't as bad as it could have been. The Minnesota Twins (78-68), who hold the last wild-card spot in the American League, didn't play Thursday. The other two teams chasing Minnesota – the Boston Red Sox (74-73) and the Seattle Mariners (74-73) – also lost.

So while the Tigers' chances of making the playoffs have dropped, they haven't dropped dramatically. PECOTA now gives the Tigers an 8.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, while Fangraphs gives them 7.4 percent. That's down from the roughly 11.5 percent seen in both prediction systems a day earlier.

The Tigers are 3 1/2 games behind Minnesota (four with tiebreakers) with 15 games remaining in the regular season.

The complete ranking can be found here.

The Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball. Things are about to get a lot harder.

The Tigers open a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles (83-64) on Friday night at Comerica Park, beginning a streak of nine consecutive games against playoff teams.

Here are the remaining 15 games on the Tigers’ schedule:

September 13-15: against Baltimore in Detroit

16th-18th September: in Kansas City

20-22 September: in Baltimore

September 24-26: against Tampa Bay in Detroit

September 27-29: against Chicago White Sox in Detroit

The Twins host the Cincinnati Reds (71-77) in Minneapolis this weekend. The Royals (80-67) occupy the second wild card spot and are in a much more comfortable position than the Twins. They play away against the Pittsburgh Pirates (70-76).

The Royals' chances of making the playoffs are around 95 percent in both prediction systems. They would have to drop significantly to be able to play their way out of one of the places.

The total is more than 100 percent, as Seattle and Minnesota still have little chance of winning the division.