The five most important games that could shape the WNBA playoffs

Going into the final week of the 2024 WNBA regular season, five of the eight playoff spots are only one game apart in the standings. Since all of the teams involved will play against each other at the end, there are still crucial games to play.

Although the New York Liberty are 3.5 games ahead in the race for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun are still battling for the second spot, which would mean a more favorable first-round matchup and home-court advantage should the two meet in the semifinals.

The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces, the number one seed in last year's playoffs, will look to hold off the Seattle Storm and secure fourth place to earn home-court advantage for the game between the two Western rivals, likely to meet in the first round of play.

The most exciting race is for the eighth and final playoff spot, as the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics are both one game behind the Chicago Sky. With three head-to-head matches remaining between these teams, the battle for a playoff spot will be on the court next week.

With those races in mind, let's take a look at the five most important games remaining in the WNBA regular season and see how they could impact the upcoming playoffs.

Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream

Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ION

Of the teams in the race for the eighth spot, the Dream are the most motivated. Atlanta previously traded its 2025 first-round pick in a deal for All-Star wing Allisha Gray, meaning the Dream would not gain any advantage from entering the lottery.

The Mystics then secured Atlanta's first-round pick in a trade with Dallas on draft night in 2023, which could increase Washington's incentive to make the playoffs. If either of those two teams is seeded eighth, the Mystics would rather enjoy a trip to the postseason themselves and pocket the Dream's lottery pick.

Although Atlanta is healthy again and Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard have started every game since the Olympic break, it is Washington that is finishing strong. After an 0-12 start, the Mystics have a .500 record in their last 24 games and have won six of their last eight games, including a 31-point victory over the Sky on Wednesday. This win gives Washington the head-to-head tiebreaker should the two teams finish tied in the standings.

Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Two nights later, the same teams face off in the DMV. They split their first two head-to-head matches, meaning the results of those games will determine the tiebreaker. If the Dream and Mystics split those two games, the next tiebreaker — record against teams .500 or better — would almost certainly favor Atlanta.

With Washington facing tough late-season games against New York and the Indiana Fever – who will likely have already secured their playoff spot by then – a win in the two games against Atlanta is a must for the Mystics to finish in eighth place.

Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream

Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Dream's streak of matchups with other eighth-place contenders ends on Tuesday when they host Chicago. Projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) show the Sky as slight favorites to make the playoffs due to their game advantage in the standings over Washington, but Atlanta could flip the script and beat Chicago at home.

A Dream win here would tie the season series at 2-2. From there, the tiebreaker against .500 teams remains undecided, depending on whether the Phoenix Mercury can reach .500. A key question for this matchup is how competitive Chicago is without injured rookie All-Star Angel Reese. The Sky managed to beat the Dallas Wings 92-77 in their first game without her, but their crushing loss at home to the Mystics painted a grimmer picture.

Although Chicago does not control its first-round pick, which the Wings can acquire via trade, Dallas' lottery position would benefit the Sky from missing out on the playoffs. In this scenario, the lowest 2025 pick Chicago could potentially get would be fourth.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun

Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET

The battle for second place is likely to be the decisive one and may decide which team ultimately reaches the WNBA Finals.

Although both teams should be favorites in the first round, a game against the Mercury — who have lost five of their last six games, all by double-digit scores — seems like a much safer matchup than Indiana, which Phoenix leapfrogged from No. 6. The Fever are 8-3 since the Olympic break and beat Connecticut at home last month. Perhaps more importantly, the No. 2 seed will have home-court advantage if both Connecticut and Minnesota reach the semifinals.

Having won the first two head-to-head matches, the Sun now have the tiebreaker in their hands. Whichever team wins on Tuesday will have the best chance of finishing second. Connecticut would only need to match Minnesota's results for the rest of the game to finish second with a win, while a Lynx win would potentially put them two games ahead in the standings and make the tiebreaker irrelevant.

Sunday's games will also be relevant to the race for second place. The Sun travel to Las Vegas while the Lynx come to New York. Connecticut and Minnesota are clear favorites to win their remaining games, which will be against teams with a sub-.500 record.

Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm

Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET

Tuesday night's decisive game ends on the West Coast with the Aces visiting the Storm in what will most likely be a playoff preview. BPI projections have Las Vegas and Seattle meeting 93% of the time in a 4-5 matchup, by far the most likely single series of the first round and a rematch of both the 2020 WNBA Finals and a thrilling 2022 semifinal matchup.

To make the series, the Storm must win on Tuesday and bring in reinforcements. A Seattle win would tie the season series at 2-2, but the Aces currently have the better record against teams with a .500 or better record – they would have to lose their other two games against qualifying teams (Friday at Indiana and Sunday at home against Connecticut) for the Storm to have a chance at a tie.

As a result, BPI sees Seattle moving up to fourth in just 13% of simulations. The Aces, meanwhile, still have an outside chance to move up to third by beating the Sun and winning. To do so, however, Connecticut would have to lose at least two of its three remaining games (at Phoenix, against Minnesota, and against Chicago). Otherwise, Las Vegas will finish either fourth or fifth, giving the Liberty a path back to the Finals for the Aces.