Pitfalls or trends? Which of OSU's weaknesses against Arkansas are likely to carry over to Tulsa and beyond?

While it was far from pretty, the Cowboys deserved the win over Arkansas and look forward to Tulsa capping their 3-0 non-conference win. While it's easy for the “glass half full” group to dismiss some of what we saw Saturday or simply chalk it up to the Cardiac Cowboys being Cardiac Cowboys, some of those blemishes could turn out to be warts, and it's not too early to diagnose them.

Of course, all of this data is based on a small sample size of two games, but as the season progresses, we should be able to keep track and identify which are aberrations and which are developing into trends. So if I may mix metaphors one last time, let's look at three observations from the Arkansas game and consider whether they are simple early-season mistakes or troubling trends.

Inability to maintain drives

For a team that won 10 games, the Cowboys struggled to complete their drives last season, especially in the first few. OSU finished 2023 ranked 10th in the league in third-down conversion rate at just under 39%. Unfortunately, as we enter 2024, there are no signs they've figured that out. The Cowboys are on pace to even miss last year's mark, as they currently rank 11th, having converted just 10 of 30 third-down attempts, or 33.33%.

First, some qualifiers, and then some qualifiers for those qualifiers (asterisks upon asterisks). Despite being against an FCS team and the team in last place in the SEC West, South Dakota State was pretty good on third-down defense last year, allowing just 33.5%, and Arkansas delivered a mediocre defense, allowing just 37.3%, but against some pretty strong offenses. Still, OSU lost time of possession to both teams (by nearly 13 minutes to Arkansas), and it wasn't because the Cowboys scored quickly.

Against the Razorbacks on Saturday, OSU lived on third-and-long, averaging 8.5 yards on third down, which points to OSU's puzzling inability to run the ball. Mike Gundy told it like he saw it after the game, but the onus is on him and Kasey Dunn to figure out how to get more than 3.2 yards per carry out of an offense that supposedly boasts the best running back and most experienced O-line in the nation.

As for Tulsa, the Golden Hurricanes' defense hasn't been great at getting off the field. After two games, they rank 13th out of 14 AAC teams, have allowed 39.3% of third downs and have allowed 8 of 16 in a loss to Arkansas State last weekend. But after that, OSU faces Utah and then Kansas State in what is likely the toughest two-game stretch on the Cowboys' schedule. They'll need to figure out how to keep their offense going quickly. Especially if this next problem is going to become a trend.

Big games for several days

We've been banging that drum since fall camp. We drummed on it last week, and someone will keep banging on it like that creepy little toy wind-up monkey on its cymbals until the Pokes figure out how to stop fast people in space. I've mentioned it as a possible reason why OSU habit to get by in Arlington this year. Then the Cowboys were crushed by South Dakota State. And if anyone thought that was because Bryan Nardo and Co. agreed to go vanilla for an FCS opponent, that idea was hidden in Ja'Quinden Jackson's breadbasket and was carried way over the finish line to win time and time again.

In just two games, OSU has allowed 15 plays of 20 yards or more, which puts the team in a tie with Texas Tech in the Big 12. In the FBS, only Jacksonville State has allowed more in two games. To add even more perspective, the Cowboys ranked third-to-last nationally in plays of 20 yards or more last year, averaging 6.2 per game. OSU is averaging 7.5 and has one more game to play before Big 12 play begins.

Marshall Scott brought up a good point about the coaches making adjustments at halftime slowing the problem in the second half, but while we wait for the Cowboys to stop ball carriers on the second level with any regularity, this big play problem is dangerously approaching a trend.

She Are Take it back

To end things on a positive note, the Cowboys won the turnover battle on Saturday and made the most of those turnovers. The Cowboys scored 10 points on three Razorbacks turnovers (not including the eight the Cowboys scored recovering the botched punt) and didn't give up a single one on their only turnover. That's a big reason the Cowboys have been able to work their way out of this hole. After two games, their average turnover margin is second-highest in the league at +1.5 per game after a 1-0 loss to South Dakota State.

OSU was good but not great in terms of TO margin last year, ranking sixth with an average of +0.14 per game. But it was especially ugly early on, when the Cowboys were playing musical chairs at the quarterback and running back positions, so maybe this is the start of a positive trend. There's debate among statisticians about the extent to which forcing turnovers is actually a measurable skill or if it's largely left to chance. But if we can agree on some anecdotal evidence, I can say that most of the best OSU defenses I've watched and been around have had a knack for taking the ball away from the other team. And while the Cowboys work on some of those early season mistakes, a few balls bouncing their way could go a long way.