UFC 306 Predictions – MMA Fighting

Sean O'Malley wants to be the next Conor McGregor? He has to prove that he can deliver. Once again.

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 306 fight at The Sphere in Las Vegas, much of the talk is that O'Malley could potentially become a new star should he successfully defend his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili. The seemingly indomitable challenger has all the makings of a dynasty destroyer, with nonstop cardio, an iron will and a relentless wrestling attack seemingly tailored to undo what O'Malley does best.

Like McGregor, O'Malley has heard a lot of criticism since he was christened the next big thing by no higher authority than Snoop Dogg after being Dana White's Contender Series in 2017. But McGregor was egged on by the doubters and, much to their frustration, he silenced them time and again with game-winning victories over Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez and his two-fight rival, Nate Diaz.

In short, when McGregor was in the spotlight, he always shone. O'Malley seems to be heading the same way, but Dvalishvili can push him back into the shadows with an impressive night at the office.

Alexa Grasso also wants to answer a question: whether she deserves to be recognized as the undisputed ruler of the 125-pound class.

She defeated Valentina Shevchenko once, but when Grasso got the chance to consolidate her position, their hard-fought rematch was marred by a questionable result in the last round that ended in a draw.

Grasso and Shevchenko are so evenly matched that it's entirely possible that Saturday's co-main event will raise more questions than answers. As fans, we can only hope that this time there will be a clear ending – even if the rivalry itself isn't over.

In other main event matches, two-time featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega will face the fast-rising Diego Lopes, blue-chip rising star Daniel Zellhuber will fight Esteban Ribovics, and flyweights Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne will aim to open the main event with a spectacular finale.

What: UFC306

Where: Ball in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, September 14. The five-fight preliminary bouts begin at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews and ESPN+, followed by the five main event bouts at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

(Numbers in brackets indicate in MMA Fighting Global Rankings And Pound-for-pound rankingIngs)

Sean O'Malley (1, P4P-12) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (2, P4P-20)

Before I make my official decision on Dvalishvili, I just want to say that I am aware that all the reasons I am choosing the challenger to defeat Sean O'Malley also applied to Aljamain Sterling when he lost the bantamweight title to O'Malley. I know exactly what I am getting myself into here.

And so… Merab Dvalishvili is just going to finish O'Malley off, right?

For some reason, Sterling never got a good grapple against O'Malley and that was his undoing as he was knocked down and knocked out in the second round. Was it a bad plan? O'Malley's excellent moves? Arrogance? We'll never know. What I do know is that Aljo's buddy won't fall into the same trap.

He will shoot early and often, he will shoot late and often. He will be to O'Malley like Jon Jones is on Twitter when Tom Aspinall receives the slightest praise: relentless, annoying and a little bit mad.

What makes this choice not so obvious is that O'Malley, despite all the assumptions that he's just a striker with no ground fighting, wasn't really defused by grappling. Petr Yan neutralized him for parts of their fight, but couldn't do much offensively with the control. Raulian Paiva never got a chance to show his jiu-jitsu. And Sterling, well, we've already gotten past that oddity.

And Dvalishvili gets hit! He's an exceptional pressure fighter, but that sometimes means he just fights through punches. Has he ever fought anyone with O'Malley's speed, power and precision while standing (sadly, I can't count out a late-30s Jose Aldo, as much as I'd like to)? Even the best chins crumble when they run right into a perfectly placed punch.

I've watched Dvalishvili struggle to win too many times to write him off now, so I'm going to trust my gut and expect “And New” to flash in huge, eye-popping letters on the walls of the Sphere.

Dvalishvili by decision.

Choose: Dvalishvili

Alexa Grasso (1, P4P-2) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (2, P4P-3)

Seriously, how do you tell these two apart after two fights that were decided by a slip up the first time and a weird scorecard? I watched Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko fight for nearly 45 minutes (more if you include replays) and it's impossible to say who is better. We're talking a difference of a few inches when it comes to their striking, grappling and other skills you want to consider when comparing fighters.

In theory, this is a fight that Grasso can only lose. She's younger, she beat Shevchenko by submission, and you could argue she leads the series 2-0. But aside from a few costly mistakes, there's little sign that “Bullet” has slowed down at all from the height of her championship career.

Watch those fights again. There were moments when Shevchenko clearly outboxed Grasso, threatened submissions and took the lead. At the same time, Grasso had many decisive strikes of her own and one could argue that she owned the most damaging sequences overall in both fights (the fourth-round submission, the knockdown in round 1 of the rematch, and then the finishing ground-and-pound series in the final minute of the rematch).

I got the second fight for Grasso, so as far as I'm concerned, she's got Shevchenko's number. At least that's what I'm telling myself to get through this selection without my brain going in circles again.

Grasso by decision.

Choose: Grasso

Brian Ortega (5) vs. Diego Lopes (14)

Even ten years after the start of his UFC career, Brian Ortega is still following the same script: He loses one fight until he stops losing it.

Against the very talented Diego Lopes, this strategy will ultimately fail. Like many of Ortega's opponents, Lopes should be able to get Ortega into shape standing up, and he has more than enough grappling in his bag to slow down and maybe even outdo Ortega's always exciting ground game. The 145-pound division is no land for old men (with the exception of Max Holloway, and even he will face Father Time in October when he fights Ilia Topuria) and Lopes is at his best while Ortega appears to be getting on in years. Add to that the fact that Ortega already has his eye on the 155-pound division, and you can see why I'm leaning the other way.

Ortega is tough to beat, so I don't expect Lopes to submit him first or inflict a hard knockout loss on him. The player-trainer will likely take a comfortable points victory before heading to the showers and coming out for the co-main event to corner Grasso.

Choose: Lopes

Esteban Ribovics vs. Daniel Zellhuber

At 6'1″ and just 25 years old, Daniel Zellhuber has all the makings of a lightweight contender as long as he makes the cut and keeps a clear head. He still has a lot to learn, but he has physical gifts and a finishing instinct that can't be taught.

Given the increased competition in the UFC, it's understandable that Zellhuber has shown his weaknesses here and there. Defense is something that has to be learned and Zellhuber has definitely learned that the hard way, as he has been cracked in a number of his fights.

The key to beating a big fighter like Zellhuber is to put pressure on him, and Esteban Ribovics is more than capable of doing that. He's a confident puncher who throws a lot of volume, and he'll likely ambush Zellhuber early. Ribovics is almost a 2-1 underdog, so you know he'll want to spoil the party for the Mexican fans in attendance.

I would like to see Zellhuber use his long limbs more to grapple, as that could be the key to smothering Ribovics. Neither man was ever finished, but I think Zellhuber can surprise Ribovics in the second half of the fight by incorporating takedowns to tire him out.

Although it is unlikely, I would bet on submission and on Zellhuber.

Choose: Zellhuber

Ode Osbourne vs Ronaldo Rodriguez

Ode Osbourne is right when he says he wouldn't just hand Ronaldo Rodriguez a game-winning win, but the reality is that Rodriguez knows how to deal with chokeholds, and that happens to be one of Osbourne's weaknesses.

This fight will be exciting for as long as it lasts, and Rodriguez will definitely have to be on his guard if he doesn't want to be added to Osbourne's list of quick finishes. He has a chance to knock Osbourne down, and if he can do that, a submission finish should follow soon.

Rodriguez strikes out Osbourne in the first inning.

Choose: Rodriguez

Preliminary remarks

Irene Aldana (6) defeated Norma Dumont (12)

Manuel Torres defeated. Ignacio Bahamondes

Yazmin Jauregui defeated. Ketlen Souza

Joshua Van defeats Edgar Chairez

Raul Rosas Jr. defeated Aoriqileng