Tennessee vs. Kent State score prediction by an expert football model

After a decisive road win against a higher-ranked ACC opponent last weekend, No. 7-ranked Tennessee is rising in the polls and solidifying its chances for the SEC title and the playoffs. The team returns home on Saturday to face Kent State in the third week of college football action.

Despite making some mistakes last week, including two intercepted passes, Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava threw passes for two touchdowns and ran for a third, while Dylan Sampson scored two touchdowns on 132 yards and held UT NC State's defense to just 3 of 12 successful third down attempts.

Big Orange returns to Rocky Top as a heavy favorite against the weaker Golden Flashes, but will still have to be on guard when they play their SEC opener away against Oklahoma next week.

Kent State is 0-2 after losses to Pitt and St. Francis (Pa.), ranking 105th nationally in scoring offense, 130th in running, 96th in passing and 127th in scoring defense. Tennessee is third in scoring, 11th in running and 19th in passing after two games.

What can we expect from this matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Tennessee and Kent State compare in this Week 3 college football game.

As expected, the simulations predict that the Volunteers will dominate at home against this MAC challenger.

SP+ predicts Tennessee to defeat Kent State by a projected score of 52 to 1 and win the game by a projected 51.6 points.

Since we can safely predict that the Golden Flashes will not score exactly 1 point, we round the score up and predict a 52-0 Vols win.

The model gives Big Orange a perfect 100 percent chance of winning the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a winning percentage of 51.6.

Tennessee is a 49.5-point favorite against Kent State, according to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, where the total for the game has been set at 62.5.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models also clearly indicate that the Volunteers will keep their serve at home today.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Tennessee emerges as the projected winner in 99 percent of updated computer simulations, while Kent State narrowly wins in the remaining 1 percent of simulations.

The index also predicts that Tennessee will outscore Kent State by 51 points on the same field with both teams currently configured, enough to make up the difference.

According to the FPI models, Tennessee will win 9.8 games this season and is ranked fourth among SEC teams with a 65.5 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs.

These models assume that Kent State will win just 1.6 games this year and has a 0.3 percent chance of appearing in a bowl game.

When: Saturday, September 14
Time: 7:45 p.m. Eastern Time
Television: SEC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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