ESPN's FPI drastically changes UGA's odds of winning every game this season

A look at ESPN's 2024 FPI shows that seven of the remaining opponents on the Dawgs' schedule are in the top 40, with four of them in the top 10. ESPN defines its FPI as a “measure of team strength that is intended to be the best indicator of a team's performance for the remainder of the season. FPI indicates how many points a team is above or below average. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season using FPI, past results, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections are updated daily.”

Georgia's football team has the third-best projected win total, ranking seventh at 5.6 percent. Last year, Georgia had a 22.4 percent chance of winning all of its regular season games, finishing 12-0. In 2022, Georgia had a 22.7 percent chance, also finishing 12-0. Georgia has the second-best chance of winning the SEC at 19.7 percent, behind Texas at 35.7 percent. Georgia has an 83.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, second-best in the country, behind Texas at 91 percent. Georgia has a 28.8 percent chance of reaching the national championship, good for the third-best chance, and a 17.4 percent chance of winning it all, good for the second-best chance in college football.

Below are Georgia's remaining opponents in 2024, as they line up on the schedule, and FPI's updated projections for a Dawgs win.

According to ESPN, the FPI's preseason rankings are based on “past performance on offense and defense, return and transfer results, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, which results in our projections.”

Looking at the individual games, ESPN sees the season going like this according to its win probability numbers:

Opponent reports from Jordan D. Hill from his rankings of Georgia's toughest games of the last month.