2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 146

I wish this game had been less predictable. If I were someone who bet on baseball, this would have been the rare game I would have gotten involved in. Six tough games in a row with the Dodgers and Yankees (finished 3-3) and then fly to play in a weird place? Without looking at their schedule, I wonder how often the Rockies raid a team at Coors? They're 56-92, but 33-37 at home.

There aren't many teams whose home and away record has a bigger gap. What do we see when we look at those teams? The Giants, Mariners and the Phillies, with the Dodgers being one of the teams that just doesn't make the cut. The A's aren't far behind at +7. Going west and playing in oddball parks looks like a challenge. Lest I exaggerate if there are counterarguments: the Diamondbacks are tied and the Astros are a more modest +5 (not as long a trip, but certainly odd).

So yes, this one seemed predictable. The problem wasn't hard to decipher. Four Cubs pitchers threw and all four allowed at least one run. It's probably not that hard to imagine Javier Assad struggling in Colorado. Javier's “superpower” that led to his very solid numbers was staying out of trouble. That's not a new skill, either. During his time in the major leagues, he had a beach rate of 82.9 percent. That's well above the league average, which I understand is usually around 70 percent.

For Javier it ultimately looked like this:

• 2022 ERA 3.11 xERA 4.49 FIP 4.49
• 2023 ERA 3.05 xERA 4.64 FIP 4.29
• 2024 ERA 3.27 xERA 4.73 FIP 4.49

Coors has calmed down over the years and is no longer the crazy place to play that it was 25 years ago. But it's still often an unforgiving place. It's frequently cited as one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. Frankly, that's not a Cub-friendly environment. Aside from their recent offensive successes, this team has been most consistently successful thanks to solid pitchers.

Fangraphs now puts the Cubs' chances of making the playoffs at 0.2 percent. If you assume 90 is the minimum number for the Cubs to make the playoffs (since they lost the tiebreaker against every contender), then they can't lose a single more game. Fangraphs currently projects the Mets and Braves to win 88.4 times each. If you estimate that at 88 per game, then the Cubs could go 14-1 in their final 15 games and make the playoffs. These projections assume the Mets go 7-8 in their final 15 games and the Braves go 8-7. These are not obscene projections.

And so it is, the Cubs have played “meaningful” September games. Just not quite as meaningful as 2023. This season has been exactly what I said 2022 would be. The path up is not a straight line and there are no guarantees. The Cubs took a step sideways in 2024 after taking a step forward in 2023 (with a stumble at the end). In my view, the only remaining question for this team is whether they can pull out 84 or 85 wins to improve on last year's 83.

The bar is not 84 or 85 wins, though. Although that would have been good enough last year. The bar is the minimum number that gets you into the playoffs. The bar has been moved this year. 84 or 85 wins is not often enough. That was a lucky break that slipped through the Cubs' fingers. There is no question that this team should have the goal of making the playoffs every year. They have the tools and a strong fan base. They have not done it.

I'm not one to criticize the front office much. I know I'm a little lenient after so many years of teams losing 90+ games. A win actually feels like an improvement over those years. If you stay in contention, it's fun until the end. For the critics, they were right this year. The team seemed to be built to be marginally better than last year, and it looks like it will get one or two more wins.

I suppose you could make cosmetic changes and get that to 86-87 next year. And that could get you into the playoffs. In 2015, there was a world champion with less than 90 wins and 88. A whole handful of them won more than 100. You have a real chance if you come in. There are a lot of upset wins against top teams that are lower seeded. And even so, the most likely way to win a championship is to be among the top two or three teams.

This team can't get a facelift to become a 100-win team. It's going to require some sort of tectonic shift. Consider that when I look at the Cubs talent rankings on MLB.com right now, the top six of them are at Triple-A Iowa. That's exciting. Also, only one of them (Cade Horton) is a pitcher. Maybe they could upgrade the second or third positions, as neither of those positions have provided much value to the Cubs in 2024. Nico Hoerner, however, offers overlooked value due to his excellent defense and good baserunning.

The Cubs' outfield is already one of the best offensively. The development of Pete Crow-Armstrong could bring them even closer to the best outfield. But it's not like they have Aaron Judge-level talent there, who would be a massive improvement over Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki. So the biggest potential is probably also the most questionable (defensive) prospect.

If Moises Ballesteros could be a passable catcher in the major leagues, that bat would be special. He's one of the most productive hitters in the system and he's been in Triple-A for 20 years. That's quite an accomplishment. That's a potentially game-winning bat. That kind of performance as a catcher, assuming the bat continues to develop, would produce the kind of performance this team has dreamed of with Willson Contreras.

He will likely debut next year at age 21. Like PCA, he will reach the majors early. That's something only truly elite players do. But like PCA, it may take some ups and downs for him to be part of the team and stay. There will be growing pains, slumps and struggles.

My conclusion? I'm skeptical that this team is anywhere close to being a serious contender. As someone who worked in the insurance industry for 25 years, I applaud this team's risk management. They don't really miss the players they bring in or the ones they let go. Not massively, anyway. But all of those Javy Báez-type hits that could ruin your back for a week happen on the field. They never take those hits to keep the management focused on defense.

They have some interesting players. But they have to consider whether to package some of those talents and/or productive veterans to acquire huge talent. Or they have to splurge on free agents. Both of those things can set your franchise back for some time. That's scary. Or they can try to sneak in every year and hope they do really well. Both are possible. But usually the champion didn't just walk in like that.

Let's find three stars.

Three stars:

1. Michael Busch had three hits that night, including the Cubs' only home run. He scored three runs.
2. Dansby Swanson had two hits, one of them a double, the Cubs' only other extra-base hit.
3. Cody Bellinger had two hits and scored two runs.

Game 146, September 13: Rockies 9, Cubs 5 (75-72)

As a reminder, Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA ratings and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Bush (.370).
• Hero: Isaac Paredes (.140).
• Buddy: Cody Bellinger (.083).

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Nate Pearson (-.205). ⅔ IP, 4 batters, 2 H, R
• Goat: Miguel Amaya (-.188).
• Child: Drew Smyly (-.151). ⅓ IP, 4 batters, 2 H, BB, 3 R (L 3-7)

WPA move of the game: Michael Busch's three-run home run in the eighth inning briefly tied the game at 5-5. (.286)

*Rockies play of the game: Hunter Goodman's grand slam put the ball out of reach in the bottom of the inning. (.208)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Previous winners: Cody Bellinger received 112 of 132 votes.

Overall Rizzo Award score: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named after Anthony Rizzo, who won the category three times out of the first four years it was introduced and four times overall. He also earned the highest season total of all time at +65.5. The points scale ranges from three points for a superhero to minus three points for a goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +20.5
• Christian Bethancourt/Porter Hodge +15
• Seiya Suzuki +13,5
• Javier Assad +12.5
• Miles Mastrobuoni/Adbert Alzolay -10
• Miguel Amaya-13
• Kyle Hendricks/Isaac Paredes -14
• Christopher Morel -20.5

*Busch at -1.5, Paredes increases the gap between himself and last place, Bellinger at +2.5. Pearson at +3, Amaya falls, Smyly at -2.5.

Next: Jameson Taillon (10-8, 3.57) is trying to end the current two-game losing streak. He has allowed 19 runs in the last two games, including problems from both starters and the bullpen. That hasn't been a big problem this year. Let's see if he can turn things around and help make this a decent road trip.