Canelo Álvarez defeats Edgar Berlanga via unanimous decision

Who will win Canelo Álvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga? The Los Angeles Times asked the following boxing experts for their predictions.

“Although I don’t agree, some people think Canelo Álvarez is no longer the fighter he once was. What’s 100% certain is that Edgar Berlanga has never been the fighter that Álvarez still is. Berlanga should go in throwing bombs, pray that one of them lands and gratefully cash his check either way.

“Álvarez has little to gain from this fight and plenty to lose, whether in a shocking result or in an unimpressive PPV number against UFC 306. As for Álvarez’s future, I completely agree with his reluctance to fight David Benavidez without a massive payday to compensate for the huge physical disadvantage he’ll face. I think Cinco de Mayo weekend 2025 is the perfect time for a possible career-defining bout against one of his few boxing peers: Terence Crawford. Álvarez by late-round KO.”

— Greg Beacham, sports writer, Associated Press

“Berlanga is tough and strong, but he isn’t experienced, skillful or durable enough to last 12 rounds with Álvarez. The Mexican icon will batter Berlanga’s body and arms, soften him up, and take him out for his first knockout win in nearly three years. The 34-year-old Álvarez should reward fans who are loyal enough to either purchase tickets to this complete mismatch in Las Vegas or buy the pay-per-view show for $90 by embracing a legitimate challenge next.

“Almost 20 years into his pro career, he’s still an elite-level boxer and shouldn’t continue concocting excuses for avoiding David Benavidez, who is younger and bigger than Álvarez, yet hardly unbeatable. A showdown with another four-weight world champion, Terence Crawford, would be a safer fight than battling Benavidez because Crawford would need to move up two divisions for it, but there is plenty of public demand for Álvarez-Crawford as well. Álvarez by ninth-round TKO.”

— Keith Idec, boxing analyst, Uncrowned.com/Yahoo! Sports

“Make no mistake, this isn’t the fight that boxing fans wanted from the Mexican superstar. That would be a showdown with divisional boogeyman David Benavidez or a unique super fight with pound-for-pound star Terence Crawford. But Álvarez gets to call his shots thanks to everything he has accomplished as the face of the post-Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao era.

“And at 34, even amid whispers that he’s slowing down just a bit some 19 years into his legendary career, Álvarez’s recent results of blowout wins against Jermell Charlo and Jaime Munguia make it hard to agree with that. Berlanga’s nickname of “The Chosen One” seems apropos because he’s only in this spot due to Álvarez choosing him. Berlanga has power in both hands and no shortage of confidence but he badly lacks the type of experience and is an overwhelming underdog. Expect Álvarez to shine, once again, where the real suspense will come from whether or not he mentions Benavidez or Crawford’s name during his postfight interview. Álvarez by eighth-round technical knockout.”

— Brian Campbell, combat sports senior insider, CBS Sports, co-host of Morning Kombat and The Brian Campbell Experience founder

“With heavy hands and a befitting bravado, Berlanga is tailor-made for Álvarez, whose class, experience, power, and chin propel him to another 168-pound championship defense. Devoid of a KO since 2021, he ends a spirited fight in the seventh round — securing a second consecutive victory over a younger, bigger, fresher foe.

“If the 34-year-old Mexican icon emerges victorious over the 27-year-old Nuyorican, three marquee opponents await: former two-time WBC super middleweight champion turned light heavyweight David Benavidez, WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol and WBA junior middleweight champion Terence Crawford, a fellow four-division titlist. Other prospective challengers — at least in theory — won’t issue a proper challenge to Álvarez, whose sustained all-time greatness warrants the ilk of opposition he hasn’t faced since his 2022 loss to Bivol. That said, with his legacy — and drawing power — in tact, he’s right to fight whoever he’d like.”

— Sam Gordon, sports reporter, San Francisco Chronicle

“Álvarez is a huge, odds-on favorite. The only way I envision anything different is if Canelo has his worst night ever in the squared circle; and somehow, Berlanga … is superhuman. Right now, Álvarez needs defining fights. For me, there are four defining moments in his career. Floyd Mayweather Jr., the first two Gennadiy Golovkin fights and Dimitry Bivol. Three of those — counting the first Golovkin encounter as a loss — he was defeated in, but Álvarez still rose after them. The red-haired legend is a modern great. That is undeniable.

“If Bivol defeats Artur Beterbiev, that would be a great challenge as a return match. And then finally, we would also like to see Álvarez fight the big white elephant in the room, David Benavidez. The issue with Álvarez-Berlanga — and I do not write this with any lack of respect for Álvarez — is that it does not thrill in your blood. Those other two fights would whet the appetite enormously. Álvarez to win on points or by late stoppage.

— Gareth A. Davies, boxing correspondent, The Daily Telegraph

“I see Álvarez going after Berlanga early due to his trash-talking during the build-up. However, if Álvarez goes too gung-ho, I can also envisage him getting caught as he does so and potentially being hurt. That initial success for Berlanga will only antagonize the Mexican superstar further, though, and with the help of those stunning uppercuts used effectively against Jaime Munguia, I expect Álvarez to record his first knockout since 2021 in rounds five through eight.”

— Phil Jay, editor, World Boxing News

“While Álvarez has to be considered the favorite, is he a near 18-1 favorite over an undefeated opponent with so many physical advantages? Álvarez will win a decision, but I believe it will be anything but comfortable. Álvarez’s future, with a win on Saturday, will be whatever he wants it to be. He’ll fight for any promoter he wants to fight for, against any opponent he wants to face. Only Álvarez has that kind of power.”

— Randy Gordon, host, SiriusXM Fight Nation’s “At The Fights”

“Berlanga simply isn’t in Álvarez’s class and it’s a massive disappointment that Álvarez chose this type of opponent. His last three fights were against John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, and Jaime Munguia, all of whom were disappointing, but not to this level. Álvarez remains a great fighter, but he was defined for most of his career by seeking out the biggest challenges. Recently, he’s been seeking the biggest purses for the least risk. That’s not the Álvarez I know and fell in love watching. Álvarez by fifth-round TKO.”

— Kevin Iole, founder, KevinIole.com

“I’m expecting Álvarez to knock out Berlanga in the 10th round to record his first stoppage in nearly three years. Álvarez could have ended his KO drought against Jaime Munguia, but it appeared he had too much respect for the fellow Mexican and eased up in the final rounds. Berlanga isn’t on Munguia’s level, one of the many reasons why I think the New Yorker isn’t deserving of this high-profile bout. Berlanga is slow-footed and his power might have been overrated based on the poor quality of his opponents in his career. Álvarez took the easy way out by not tabbing David Benavidez as his next opponent. But I’ll give the boxing superstar a pass out of respect for fighting many champions in his decorated career. If Álvarez looks dominant and this bout turns out to be more of a tune-up for Benavidez, then all will be forgiven, hopefully by Cinco de Mayo 2025.”

— Gilberto Manzano, staff writer, Sports Illustrated and co-founder of Compas on the Beat

“Berlanga isn’t in Álvarez’s class, which is why he probably will be overwhelmed and ultimately knocked out. This is the fourth mismatch for Álvarez since the Mexican star lost a decision to Dmitry Bivol and arguably the eighth in his last nine fights, dating back to his meeting with Sergey Kovalev in 2019. That’s frustrating for boxing fans because a genuine threat is ready and willing, the dangerous David Benavidez. Álvarez has the right — and leverage — to fight anyone he pleases as his career winds down but make no mistake: His treasured legacy is taking a hit.

“The good news for him is that there’s still time to get it right. He could face Benavidez yet, although he still hasn’t shown much interest. And he said publicly that he’d like a second shot at Bivol if Bivol beats Artur Beterbiev on Oct. 12. Bottom line: Let’s hope Álvarez’s next opponent has a chance to have his hand raised.

— Michael Rosenthal, editor, Boxing Junkie (USA Today Sports)

“Most fans and all the oddsmakers feel it’s a foregone conclusion that Álvarez defeats Berlanga. What is up for debate is how he picks up his 62nd win. Although a war of words has been the centerpiece of the promotion, Álvarez, who has predicted a knockout in under eight rounds, will likely box his way to a 12-round unanimous decision. Álvarez is at a stage in his career where “risky” isn’t a word that would be used to accompany a future opponent. At 34 years old and heading into his 66th pro fight, there isn’t any need to take on the biggest challenges. An Álvarez fight at this stage in his career is an event, and before he hangs up the gloves, we will see him face decent opponents (Chris Eubank Jr.) or fighters willing to move up (Terence Crawford) and take a considerable risk for a shot at the top spot. Álvarez’s last years will mirror that of Floyd Mayweather Jr., which is something he has earned and has every right to take that approach for the last phase of his boxing career.”

— Abraham Gonzalez, founder, FightsATW.com

“Álvarez is a prohibitive favorite. Any prediction for this fight focuses on the how, and not the who. Yes, Berlanga has power. His remaining skillset is still too immature to challenge the ring command, speed, footwork, defense, and precision of Álvarez. Should Álvarez make a mistake and Berlanga hits him flush, the Mexican star has among the best chins in boxing. If Gennadiy Golovkin couldn’t wobble Álvarez, Berlanga won’t. Álvarez admitted he could have stopped Jaime Munguia in May, but allowed him to finish on his feet as a show of respect for his countryman. He will not grant this courtesy to Berlanga. Álvarez will school Berlanga, much as he did Caleb Plant. Álvarez will be too elusive, using Berlanga’s body for target practice. As damage accumulates, Berlanga will eventually yield. Álvarez by eighth-round TKO.”

— Gayle Falkenthal, West Coast bureau chief, NYFights.com

“Álvarez hasn’t scored a stoppage in nearly three years. It’s a reason, just one, that leads to lots of talk suggesting that the Mexican pay-per-view star is sliding out of his prime. Berlanga is the perfect opponent for Álvarez to counter the talk, if not stop it altogether. The guess here is that Álvarez will deliver on his promise with a KO, sometime in the later rounds against Berlanga, who goes into the fight with little to lose. After all, there is nobody — absolutely no one — who thinks he can win.

“If the fight somehow goes to the scorecards, the court of public opinion will judge the fight as a Berlanga victory and a Álvarez loss. But don’t expect a decision, at least not in this fight. The real decision is about what Álvarez will do next. Reportedly, there are two options: David Benavidez or Terence Crawford. If you follow the money — and Álvarez does — bet on Crawford. Then again, it’s not exactly clear what Álvarez is thinking. He’s 34. He says he wants to fight until he’s 37. He can keep himself in the public eye and still make plenty against another Berlanga-like opponent. Álvarez by ninth-round TKO.”

— Norm Frauenheim, writer, 15Rounds.com

Álvarez is once again fighting against much lesser opposition, a fighter that hasn’t even challenged for a world title. Berlanga has power, a decent jab, and a good distance. However, he has the style that Álvarez likes, which is going forward, making himself vulnerable to counterattacks. Álvarez will knock out the inexperienced Berlanga unless the Mexican champion’s power or stamina has diminished. The Brooklyn native shouldn’t rush like Jaime Munguía did in May. But if he starts too slow, he can lose many rounds and have trouble catching up. Either way, Berlanga is young and talented but is not quite ready. Álvarez KOs Berlanga.

— Eduard Cauich, sports reporter, LA Times en Español

I don’t expect this to be an epic Mexico-Puerto Rico battle. Álvarez will get it done by the ninth round as Edgar Berlanga will succumb to the pressure of it all. Álvarez needs a knockout and this is his best chance against an inferior fighter. It will be another nice payday for Álvarez.

— Jad El Reda, sports reporter, LA Times en Español