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Expected points in Week 2: Kyren Williams still a top cowback

Last season, I published a weekly expected points article here at Rotoworld, and I highlighted a few players whose expected fantasy points suggested there was more up for grabs than their final line for the week. For example, Jaleel McLaughlin, who finished Week 1 as the RB36 in PPR leagues with 7.8 fantasy points, was the RB26 in expected fantasy points, thanks in part to his solid passing ability.

For those who don't know, Expected Points applies point values ​​to players' chances based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they were given those chances. Players can then score above or below their expected points depending on what they do with their chances – this is what we know as Fantasy Points Over Expected.

In hopes of uncovering some deeper plays from week to week, I'll use our insights on expected points to highlight some players who may be overlooked in the coming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables with the previous week's expected fantasy points, sorted by most to least expected fantasy points.

In a normal week, I would detail a handful of players I like at each position based on expected fantasy points. This week, however, is thankfully not a “normal” week, as my wife and I welcomed our first child into the family. Everyone is doing well. Week 1 expected points for 50 RBs, 50 WRs, and 15 TEs are below. I look forward to taking a closer look at expected points ahead of Week 3!

Statistics and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com And RBSDM.com. All ratings are based on complete PPR leagues.

Running backs

Expected points in week 1

player team EP FPÖ PPR
Joe Mixon HOUSE 24.2 2.6 26.8
Alvin Kamara NO 20.1 1.9 22.0
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 19.9 -2.5 17.4
De'Von Achane MIA 19.6 3.4 23.0
Rhamondre Stevenson FR 18.9 2.7 21.6
Saquon Barkley PHI 18.8 14.4 33.2
Breece Hall NYJ 18.4 1.9 20.3
Rachaad White TB 18.4 -1.8 16.6
Kyren Williams LAR 18.1 -3.7 14.4
Jerome Ford CLE 17.6 1.3 18.9
Jordan Mason SF 17.4 4.8 22.2
Josh Jacobs Great Britain 17.1 -4.7 12.4
James Conner ARI 16.7 2.6 19.3
Bijan Robinson ATL 15.7 0.4 16.1
James Cook BUF 14.9 -1.6 13.3
Brian Robinson Jr WAS 14.8 3.1 17.9
Kenneth Walker III SEA 14.4 4.5 18.9
Isiah Pacheco KC 14.1 1.7 15.8
Najee Harris PIT 14.1 -5.2 8.9
Justice Hill BAL 13.5 -2 11.5
Jonathan Taylor IND 13.5 -2.7 10.8
Tony Pollard TEN 13.2 5.2 18.4
David Montgomery DET 13.2 3.1 16.3
Travis Etienne JAC 12.2 1.7 13.9
Devin Singletary NYG 12.1 -2.9 9.2
Jaleel McLaughlin THE 12 -4.2 7.8
Aaron Jones MIN 11.9 7 18.9
Zack Moss CIN 11.1 3 14.1
Alexander Mattison LV 10.5 5.7 16.2
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 10.3 2.6 12.9
JK Dobbins LAC 10.2 12.7 22.9
Derrick Henry BAL 10.1 0.5 10.6
Gus Edwards LAC 9 -5.2 3.8
Zamir White LV 8.8 -2.2 6.6
Ty Chandler MIN 8.5 -1.3 7.2
Bucky Irving TB 8.4 1.2 9.6
Javonte Williams THE 7.9 -4.6 3.3
Zach Charbonnet SEA 7.8 4.3 12.1
Austin Ekeler WAS 7.4 2.8 10.2
Tyjae Spears TEN 7 0.2 7.2
D’Andre Swift CHI 6.9 -1.9 5.0
Raheem Mostert MIA 6.8 -2.9 3.9
Jamal Williams NO 6.5 5.6 12.1
Follow Braun CIN 5.7 -0.4 5.3
Emmanuel Wilson Great Britain 5.6 1.2 6.8
Pierre Strong Jr CLE 5.5 -0.5 5.0
Tank Bigsby JAC 5.4 1.9 7.3
Rico Dowdle DAL 5.2 -1 4.2
Tyrone Tracy Jr NYG 5 -3.3 1.7
Miles Sanders CAR 4.4 -2.2 2.2

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Wide receivers

Expected points in week 1

player team EP FPÖ PPR
Cooper Kupp LAR 40.3 -8.3 32.0
Samuel Deebo SF 22.2 -3.5 18.7
Keenan Allen CHI 20.5 -13.6 6.9
Wan'Dale Robinson NYG 20 -8.2 11.8
Garret Wilson NYJ 19.2 -7.2 12.0
Courtland Sutton THE 19 -11.2 7.8
Zay Flowers BAL 18.8 -7.7 11.1
CeeDee Lamb DAL 17.7 -4.1 13.6
Tyreek Hill MIA 16.4 9.6 26.0
Steve Diggs HOUSE 15.8 6.1 21.9
AJ Brown PHI 15.7 7.2 22.9
Allen Lazard NYJ 15.5 11.4 26.9
Jameson Williams DET 15.3 9.1 24.4
Amary Cooper CLE 15.1 -11.5 3.6
Tank Dell HOUSE 14.7 -5.8 8.9
Jerry Jeudy CLE 14 -2.5 11.5
Rashee Rice KC 13.5 3.8 17.3
Chris Godwin TB 13.4 8.9 22.3
Greg Dortch ARI 13.3 -2.2 11.1
DJ Moore CHI 13.2 -3.2 10.0
Ladd McConkey LAC 13.1 1.8 14.9
Romeo Doubs Great Britain 12.8 -3.8 9.0
Diontae Johnson CAR 12.7 -8.8 3.9
George Pickens PIT 12.6 0.9 13.5
Josh Reynolds THE 12.6 -3.1 9.5
Michael Evans TB 12.6 10.5 23.1
DeVonta Smith PHI 12.4 3 15.4
Devaughn Vele THE 12.3 -0.4 11.9
Michael Pittman Jr IND 12.3 -5.2 7.1
Demarcus Robinson LAR 12.1 -3.9 8.2
Xavier Legette CAR 12 -4.5 7.5
Justin Jefferson MIN 11.7 4.2 15.9
Nico Collins HOUSE 11.7 6 17.7
Brandin cooks DAL 11.4 3.1 14.5
KJ Osborn FR 11.2 -6.1 5.1
Thomas B. LAR 11.2 1.7 12.9
Jayden Reed Great Britain 11 22.1 33.1
Christian Watson Great Britain 10.9 -0.6 10.3
Malik Nabers NYG 10.9 0.7 11.6
Ray-Ray McCloud ATL 10.9 -1.7 9.2
Amon-Ra St Brown DET 10.7 -6.4 4.3
Calvin Ridley TEN 10.5 -2.5 8.0
Tyler Boyd TEN 10.4 -5.6 4.8
Tyler Lockett SEA 10.4 3.3 13.7
Andrei Iosivas CIN 9.8 -4.2 5.6
Elijah Moore CLE 9.5 -5.6 3.9
Keon Coleman BUF 9.4 -0.3 9.1
Davante Adams LV 9.1 1.8 10.9
Juan Jennings SF 9 2.4 11.4
Ja’Marr Chase CIN 8.9 3.3 12.2

Tight ends

Expected points in week 1

player team EP FPÖ PPR
Isaiah probably BAL 20.2 5.9 26.1
Trey McBride ARI 15.8 -7.8 8.0
Brock Bowers LV 11.4 0.4 11.8
Jake Ferguson DAL 9.8 -5.3 4.5
Sam LaPorta DET 9 -0.5 8.5
Kyle Pitts ATL 8.1 3.5 11.6
Foster Moreau NO 8 6.3 14.3
George Kittle SF 8 0 8
David Njoku CLE 7.5 0.9 8.4
Dallas Goedert PHI 7.4 -0.3 7.1
Mike Gesicki CIN 7.1 -2.3 4.8
Jordan Akins CLE 6.9 -1.2 5.7
Colby Parkinson LAR 6.5 2.2 8.7
Noah Fant SEA 6.3 -3.2 3.1
Evan Engram JAC 6.3 -4.8 1.5

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