Sebastian Coe is fighting for the position of IOC President – ​​but writing him off is not an option | Sebastian Coe

BWhile most Britons were finishing off the last of the Christmas turkey in 1979, Sebastian Coe ran 14.4 miles through the Derwent Valley, braving the odds of nature and the elements. “It was a tough effort, a 5:30 pace in wet tracksuits and raincoats,” wrote Olympic marathoner Kenny Moore, who tried to keep up. “Wind and rain howled from the Pennines, freezing the men in places and driving the water from the spillways into the lakes.”

Eventually Moore had enough and sat down with Coe's father Peter, who was driving behind them and listening to Schubert in the car. But Coe carried on. “I'm tougher this year than last year,” he said to his father afterwards. “It's obvious,” was the reply. A few months later, the world realized it too, when Coe won Olympic gold in the 1500 m in Moscow with a brilliant act of defiance.

Nearly 45 years later, Coe is still running. This time, however, not for the biggest prize in sport, but for its most powerful post: the presidency of the International Olympic Committee. Later Monday, the IOC will announce the list of approved candidates to replace Thomas Bach next year. And barring some unexpected twist, Coe will be the biggest name on the ballot.

But his road to victory is far more difficult than anything he faced on that wintry run in the Pennines. Not only does Coe have to convince the majority of the IOC's 111 eclectic members – including royals, former athletes, sports officials and politicians – but he must do so while Bach does everything in his power to stop him. In short, this is a world of complex geopolitics, backroom deals and the kind of rivalry intrigue that even a Vatican monsignor would shy away from.

Insiders expect that around half a dozen candidates will ultimately fight for the title, including David Lappartient, the French president of the International Cycling Federation, and Morinari Watanabe, the Japanese president of the International Gymnastics Federation. Both are considered outsiders, as is the ever-popular Prince Feisal al-Hussein of Jordan. And then there are the big three: the Zimbabwean ex-swimmer Kirsty Coventry, the Spaniard Juan Antonio Samaranch and Coe himself.

Coventry, who won seven Olympic medals and would be the first woman to hold the post, has the advantage of being Bach's preferred candidate and is also considered intelligent and political. However, at 41, some consider her inexperienced and may not attract the majority of African votes.

Samaranch, 64, on the other hand, could be the man to beat. He is IOC vice president, was co-chair of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing and is considered popular and smart. It also helps that, as the son of a former IOC president, he has a certain level of fame and is already campaigning intensively behind the scenes.

And yet no one in this field has a better CV than Coe. A two-time Olympic gold medalist who ran the London 2012 Olympics and then became president of one of sport's biggest? And who, to top it all off, has had a successful career in business and has served as a government whip? That ticks a lot of boxes.

Coe can also point to his successes and willingness to make tough decisions at World Athletics. The Athletics Integrity Unit has become the gold standard for exposing dopers. The ban on Russia for state-sponsored doping lifted him from the IOC and was widely praised. And this year he also set clear rules to protect fairness in the women's category, and athletics at the Paris Games was also considered a resounding success.

But none of this is a guarantee of victory. The IOC is like a private members' club with its own dynamics that are difficult to predict. Coe's decision to exclude Russia clearly angered some members – including Bach – and the fact that he is awarding prize money of £50,000 to each Olympic champion in athletics has not been universally welcomed either, particularly because he did not inform other sports in advance.

Some say Coe now has a steep hill to climb. But others are convinced there is a path to victory. First, Bach's influence is unlikely to be as significant because of the secret ballot next March. Second, Coe's more open leadership style is likely to be welcomed by members, who largely agreed with Bach. And a third advantage, which Samaranch also has, is that he is perceived as a big shot in a role that requires serious political intuition and clout.

Over the next four years, the next IOC president will have to deal with the ongoing dispute between the US and China over the doping case against 23 Chinese swimmers in the run-up to the Los Angeles Olympics, possibly even during a Donald Trump presidency. He will also have to negotiate television contracts worth around a billion dollars in a dramatically changed media landscape and find new sponsors to replace the departing Japanese companies. The next IOC president will have to be a serious politician, cheerleader, CEO and sports promoter – sometimes simultaneously.

The upcoming battle promises to be chaotic and epic. But history has taught us not to write Coe off. After all, he has an unfailing habit of defying doubters, whether by winning Olympic gold in Moscow and Los Angeles or by awarding the Games to London in 2005. He could do it again.