Tropical rainstorm moves ashore in the Carolinas with flooding and strong winds

A tropical rainstorm will bring heavy downpours, gusty winds and rough surf to the Carolinas through Tuesday. AccuWeather forecasters warn that rainfall will increase in some areas and coastal flooding and beach erosion will continue regardless of whether the rainstorm is strong enough to be named.

“The only thing keeping the system from developing into a named subtropical storm near the Carolinas was the lack of a closed circulation,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's senior hurricane forecaster. “The open-sided storm brought heavy rains, severe thunderstorms and sustained winds near 50 mph starting Monday morning.”

On Monday morning, gusts of up to 67 mph, the intensity of a major tropical storm, were observed at a fishing pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Tropical storm winds range from 39 to 73 mph. Since the beginning of the weekend, the North Carolina coast has already seen between 13 and 19 inches of rainfall.

A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. Often a subtropical storm will have dry air flow on one side, as seen in the storm along the Carolina coast.

Due to the risks to life and property, AccuWeather meteorologists have rated the tropical rainstorm a Category 1 on their RealImpact™ hurricane scale.

The heaviest downpours and gusty conditions associated with the tropical wind and rainstorm were concentrated north and northwest of the low pressure center – a condition that will continue as the storm moves inland.

Despite the official rating from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tides will be well above historical average along much of the Carolinas and Southern Virginia coast, with storm surges of 12 to 36 inches (30 to 90 centimeters) expected, with locally higher water levels through Wednesday.

The storm surge is above the water level that is normally higher during a full moon.

Some coastal roads may be blocked by high water or washed away by tides and waves. These conditions may also endanger other beach homes in the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

When a tropical system moves ashore, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms spawning brief tornadoes or waterspouts that move ashore in beach communities. Localized power outages spread inland as the storm progresses.

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As the rainstorm moves deep inland, it will lose wind intensity by mid-week. Storm surge, seas, and winds on the coast will subside. However, the storm's heavy rain will move inland. It will be enough to push small streams over their banks, cause flooding in cities, and cause some rivers in the region from the Carolinas to Virginia to rise significantly despite the existing drought.

Rainfall of between 5 and 10 centimeters is expected over a broad zone from the Carolinas to Virginia. In the eastern areas and toward the southern Appalachians, large amounts of precipitation of 10 to 20 centimeters are likely.

Enough moisture will flow north from the inland storm to spread rain across much of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, southern and eastern Pennsylvania, and central and eastern West Virginia, particularly Tuesday through Wednesday. For many of these locations, it would be the first rainfall in over a week.

Just as Francine helped strengthen the tropical rain storm along the Carolina coast this weekend, the tropical rainstorm could create a new phenomenon along the Mid-Atlantic coast starting in the middle or end of this week.

The upcoming spinoff storm has the best chance of bringing rain to parts of the central Appalachians and southern New England.

How strong this storm becomes and what its track is will determine how much rain there will be across the Northeast, as opposed to dry air. It's possible that the wedge of dry air that formed over a week ago will persist from the eastern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians and perhaps part of the Atlantic coast.

Elsewhere, Gordon, which formed a few days ago, has weakened to a tropical depression over the mid-Atlantic.

AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring another zone of tropical development that could impact the United States and other land areas next week.

“The current development risk currently extends over a broad zone from the central Caribbean to part of the southwestern Atlantic and the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” DaSilva said.

If a tropical storm forms and overcomes wind shear, the waters will be very warm, which could lead to rapid strengthening.

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