Aurora alert – Strong geomagnetic storm could trigger northern lights in the US and Europe on September 16

A combination of strong solar events has prompted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to issue a geomagnetic storm warning for today (September 16).

This is great news for anyone who Northern Lights The predicted geomagnetic storm could trigger auroras well into the middle latitudes (around 50°) and far in the south like California, Missouri and Oregon.

This perpetrator? In this case there are actually two.

The first is a large cloud of plasma and magnetic field known as coronal mass ejection (CME) released from the Sun during a colossal Class X solar flare – the strongest class of Solar flare — on September 14. Solar storm X4.5 reached its peak at 11:29 a.m. EDT (3:29 p.m. GMT) and was the fifth largest solar flare the current Solar cycle.

The CME released during the X-flare is currently racing towards Earth and is expected to arrive today (September 16). CMEs carry electrically charged Atoms known as ions. When they collide with the Earth Magnetospherethey can trigger geomagnetic storms. During these storms, the ions interact with gases in Earth's atmospherewhich emit energy as light. We see this light in the Northern Hemisphere as the Northern Lights or Aurora Borealis and in the Southern Hemisphere as the Southern Lights or Aurora Australis.

The X-flare eruption on September 14, 2024 was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME). (Image credit: NASA/SDO and the science teams of AIA, EVE and HMI)

The second culprit is a coronal hole on the side of the Sun facing the Earth. Coronal holes appear as dark regions In the sunThey have an open, unipolar magnetic field line structure, which essentially allows the Solar wind to escape more easily into space. This stream of relatively fast solar wind and the influence of the approaching coronal mass ejection have led to the issuance of the geomagnetic storm warning G3.

NOAA classified geomagnetic storms are measured using a G-scale that measures their intensity, ranging from G1 for smaller storms to G5 for the most extreme. Strong G3 conditions are forecast for today (September 16), meaning we can look forward to quite an aurora spectacle, as earlier “minor” G1 conditions on July 29/30 still produced sparks. dazzling Northern Lights in the USA and Canada.

Graphic with detailed information about the geomagnetic storm warning G3 and its possible effects.

Due to the influence of coronal holes and the expected arrival of a coronal mass ejection associated with a magnitude 4.5 eruption, intermittent strong geomagnetic storms of magnitude G3 are expected on September 16, 2024. (Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center)

When will the geomagnetic storm occur?

Current forecasts predict that level 3 geomagnetic storm conditions will occur on September 16, but the exact timing is not yet known.

Similar to the weather on Earth, Space weather is unpredictable and difficult to predict. Geomagnetic storm warnings of this strength are rare, but can sometimes come to nothing.

“NOAA and NASA forecasts indicate an arrival sometime between 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC on September 16. The storm will likely arrive on the late side, possibly deflected further east by a fast solar wind stream,” wrote space weather physicist Tamitha Skov in a Post on X.

The large #solarstorm that formed during the X4.5 flare is on its way to Earth. NOAA and NASA forecasts suggest it will arrive sometime between 06:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC on September 16. The storm will likely arrive on the late side, possibly being deflected further east by a fast solar wind stream. My… pic.twitter.com/ifT4UZt6jU16 September 2024

If you use X, I recommend visiting space weather forecaster Sara Housseal's account for regular updates on the “arrival of coronal mass ejections” and general information on space weather.

“CME Update: We have reached the point where we can expect the CME [arrive] any time, based on model results, but there is still no indication that an arrival is imminent,” said Houseeal wrote in a post on X this morning (September 16).

“Now the fun begins: will it come later than expected or not at all? Stay tuned!” Housseal continued.

CME Update: Based on model results, we've reached the point where we can expect the CME to arrive at any time, but there are still no signs that an arrival is imminent. Usually, a significant increase in low-energy protons being pushed ahead of the CME front can be a sign… pic.twitter.com/PDqNU0LbT616 September 2024

If you want to keep an eye on space weather conditions and know when (and where) to look for aurora borealis, I recommend downloading a space weather app that will notify you of the conditions forecast for your location. I use an app called “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts” which is available on iOS And Android. But any similar app should do the job. I then pair this with the Space Weather Live app which is available on iOS And Android. This app is great because it gives you better insights into whether space weather conditions are promising for auroral activity.

Aurora alert – Strong geomagnetic storm could trigger northern lights in the US and Europe on September 16

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