Abortion rights are up for vote in 10 states this November

After months of signature-gathering and much maneuvering in state courts, ballots to expand or protect abortion rights have been certified for the general election in 10 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota. Two (in Maryland and New York) were introduced by legislators and affirm rights already protected by law, while eight were introduced by citizens. That's more impressive than you might think: Only 17 states allow citizen-introduced constitutional amendments, and after this year, a full 14 states whose legislatures have passed abortion bans will have voted on abortion ballots to repeal them. Pro-abortion advocates have won all seven ballots (four in the deep-red states of Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, and Ohio, and another in the swing state of Michigan) since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the ban. roe v. Wade; there's a strong chance that this streak will extend to 17 victories in November, which would be a stunning confirmation of how broad and deep support for abortion rights is.

Some states lack significant polling, but everywhere (including deep-red Missouri and South Dakota), supporters of expanding or defending abortion rights appear to have the edge. Tellingly, one of the few signs of hope for anti-abortion activists is in Florida, and only because that state requires a 60 percent, two-thirds majority for constitutional initiatives. In Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, and Nevada, on the other hand, a victory for the abortion rights movement is all but certain. In Montana, it's notable that voters rejected a ballot bill to restrict abortion in 2022.

This generally positive picture of abortion rights is not without complications, however. In Nebraska, abortion opponents succeeded in getting a competing initiative on the ballot that would constitutionally ban abortions after the first trimester. The standard is technically less draconian than the state's current 12-week ban, but would roll back abortion rights and is clearly designed to confuse voters. If this initiative and the primary measure to restore abortion rights roe Viability standard both If the initiative passes, the one that receives the most votes will be implemented. In South Dakota, a legal attempt to keep the abortion rights initiative off the ballot failed, but the courts are allowing a hearing on anti-abortion activists' complaints that could theoretically make a passed amendment unenforceable.

In New York, the decision to embed abortion rights protections in a broader equal rights amendment could backfire, as Politico explains:

An issue that should have been as easy a victory in New York as it was for Democrats across the country now threatens to backfire because of the way they drafted the amendment.

The backlash from the right relied heavily on anti-trans rhetoric, a line of attack that internal polling showed was persuasive among voters in battleground House districts, three people who reviewed the data told POLITICO, who were granted anonymity to discuss the inside information.

Without a well-funded campaign to defend and strengthen the Equal Rights Amendment, deep-blue New York could reject a referendum supporting abortion rights – with devastating national political consequences for Democrats.

It's still hard to imagine New York voting against an Equal Rights Amendment, but it might be harder than expected.

If all ten pro-choice votes pass, we will end up with 18 states whose constitutions (either by express provision or by Supreme Court interpretation) prevent legislation from banning abortion, and another seven Democratic-controlled states where passing a ban is extremely unlikely. That's half the states, so there's still a lot of work to do to undo the damage the U.S. Supreme Court has done. But a lot has already been accomplished.