Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees

The Mariners' last-minute attempt to sneak into the playoffs took a positive turn over the weekend. Their series win over the Rangers, the Twins' loss to the Reds and yesterday's loss to the Guardians mean the M's are just two games back in the wild card race and four games back in the AL West. With 12 games left to play, the Mariners essentially need to win every series from here on out to have a chance at a playoff spot, and 8-4 might not even be enough to do that. They face a tough challenge this week with a big three-game series against the best team in the American League.

It hasn't been a pretty or smooth season, but the Yankees currently hold the best record in the AL and are three games ahead in the AL East. They got off to a really strong start in April and May, faltered in June and July, but came back in late summer just in time to get into the playoffs. FanGraphs has them as favorites to win the World Series, making this series a pretty good litmus test for the Mariners to see if they can hang with the best or if they'll buckle under the pressure.

The Yankees' lineup consists of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. And when they go, their whole team goes too. Fortunately, both are historic performers, and their contribution to the offensive output as a duo is better than any other hitting pair since 2000. Judge just ended a career-long home run drought that lasted 16 games. New York's biggest signing at the trade deadline was Jazz Chisholm Jr.; he brought new energy to the bottom half of that lineup while naturally slotting in at third base, a position he had never played in his career until joining the Yanks.

Probable pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer video

Luis Gil has been the Yankees' most surprising performer this year. After his brief major league debut in 2021, Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly his entire 2022 and 2023 seasons. Working his way through New York's farm system, he wasn't exactly a highly-rated prospect, with his limited repertoire making him a big risk in relief. Well, he's managed to use his big fastball-slider combination to great effect this year and has been one of the Yankees' best starters when they needed it most. He can be a little wild at times, but the tremendous whiff rates he gets off his fastball mostly make up for those baserunners.

Nestor Cortes had a bit of a rough patch in July and early August – a five-game streak in which he allowed 24 runs in 23.1 innings – but otherwise he's been a solid frontline starter for the Yankees. He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and mixes in a cutter, sweeper and changeup to keep batters off balance. Speaking of off balance, Cortes is known for using all sorts of mechanical tricks to fool his pitch.

Clarke Schmidt was in the midst of a breakout season when he went on the IL in late May with a lat injury. He just returned a few weeks ago and has looked pretty good in two starts in September. Schmidt throws two different breaking balls that average over 3,000 RPM spin rates, and both his sinker and cutter have extremely high spin rates for those pitches. The spin isn't just for show, either; his breaking balls are extremely hard to hit even when they don't generate a massive whiff rate, and he relies on his two fastballs for swings-and-misses.

The big picture:

The Astros lost the opener of their series against the Padres yesterday and the Tigers snuck a half-game lead over the Mariners in the Wild Card standings with a come-from-behind win over the Royals yesterday. My interests in cheering/watching the scores this week:

• Padres vs Astros
• Guardian of twins
• Royals vs Tigers
• Rays beat Red Sox