Former MLB stars impressed as Ohtani approaches 50/50 milestone: “The game is literally changing”

The miracle of Shohei Ohtani is his extraordinary ability at everything a baseball player does. He hasn't even shown it all yet in his seventh season of an unparalleled career.

“What he does is a natural,” said Andruw Jones, who ended his outstanding career in Japan a decade ago. “I saw this kid at 18, 19, and I knew what kind of player he was. He didn't stand out as a hitter yet, but defensively, as an outfielder, he was very, very good. I would go out after batting practice when they were manning the infield just to see him throw. He was so impressive.”

Perhaps one day Ohtani will play the outfield in Major League Baseball and throw pitches like never before. But this season has been a completely unique display of his speed. Ohtani, the Los Angeles Dodgers' prodigious designated hitter, has hit 48 home runs and 48 stolen bases through Tuesday and is poised to become a charter member of the 50/50 club.

48/48 FOR SHOHEI OHTANI! pic.twitter.com/QoXCvhkrHI

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) 17 September 2024

It's another amazing trick from the baseball master wizard who had never recorded more than 26 steals in a single season in either the major leagues or Japan. And for players who have managed one or the other or both, it's perhaps even more amazing.

Only two players in MLB history have hit 50 home runs and stolen 50 bases in a single season, let alone in the same one. One is Barry Bonds, who stole 52 bases for Pittsburgh in 1990 and hit a record 73 home runs for San Francisco in 2001. The other is Brady Anderson, who hit 53 steals in 1992 and 50 home runs four years later, both for Baltimore.

Historically, far fewer players have hit 50 home runs in a season than have stolen 50 bases. Even Ohtani has never done either.

“When I did it, I think it was 14, and now it's probably over 30,” Anderson, who has a keen interest in baseball history, said of his 50-home-run season. “But even if it's 30 or 40, it's still very few. I'm sure the number of guys who steal over 50 bases is in the hundreds. So the home run part is the hard part. And then guys who have 50 home runs are usually the bigger guys.”

Anderson was actually the 14th player to hit 50 home runs in a season. (Well over 100 players have stolen 50 bases.) While 31 players have now reached that mark, some of the game's most famous sluggers – Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson and Albert Pujols – have never done so.

“It has to be a year full of good things, with a lot of things going right,” said Giancarlo Stanton of the New York Yankees, who hit 59 home runs for Miami in 2017, his only season with more than 37 home runs.

“You have to maintain balance and timing throughout the year and not have too many lulls. And even when you're not feeling good, you have to be able to get your few hits as home runs. Instead of having two singles in your 2-for-20-something stretch, you have to squeeze those out as home runs. The whole rhythm of your season has to be right.”

In 2021, the first of Ohtani's two MVP seasons for the Los Angeles Angels, he hit just two home runs in his final 21 games, finishing the season with 46. Last year, when he was MVP again, Ohtani hit his 44th and final home run on August 23 before an elbow injury ended his season.

That injury, which required reconstructive surgery, has kept Ohtani from being able to pitch or play in 2024, making this season the perfect—and perhaps only—season to maximize his velocity.

“I think there will come a point where the Dodgers will say, 'We're happy with the stolen bases, but if we reduce them to 25 or 30, we can still win,'” said Juan Pierre, who had 50 steals in five seasons, tying Carl Crawford for the most steals in the 2000s.

“I think that's what (the Atlanta Braves) will do with (Ronald) Acuña (Jr.), too. I don't think he'll steal 73 bases again. With his knees, they'll say, 'Look, you're valuable to us, we'll find someone else to steal the bases.' A lot of guys start out like that — like Matt Kemp — but as you get older, guys just quit, especially if you can hit powerfully. There's no reason to be out there and get hurt.

“And if Ohtani starts throwing again, do you really want him to run and maybe ruin his shoulder? I don't think he could hit those numbers and throw.”

Good guess. As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said The athletics Fabian Ardaya on Sunday: “It's a huge physical strain. I can't imagine he would be able to do it if he pitched. I don't think he would be able to do it.”

When Pierre stole 64 bases for the Dodgers in 2007, he didn't hit a single home run. Fourteen others stole 50 bases for the Dodgers, and the most home runs of all were hit by Davey Lopes with 10 in 1974.

By the time Jones played for the Dodgers in 2008, he had essentially stopped stealing bases. He had 56 steals in 1995, his last full minor league season, but he had 27 in the major leagues. Only one Atlanta player – Otis Nixon in 1991 – ever managed 50 steals during Bobby Cox's quarter-century as Braves manager, and Jones prioritized defense anyway.

“I wanted to prevent runs,” said Jones, who hit 51 home runs for Atlanta in 2005 and won 10 Gold Gloves. “At my young age, I basically prevented 20 runs every year. But the older you get, the more you ask yourself: Should I keep preventing runs or should I save my legs and hit fly balls in center field? My team relied on me to do that.”

No player has ever had more than 24 stolen bases while hitting 50 home runs. In Anderson's high-energy season, he said, a torn quadriceps muscle limited him to 21 steals. But had Anderson been a bigger running threat, pitchers might have worn him down with repeated throws to first base.

“The battering was much worse on the pickoff attempts than on the stolen bases,” Anderson said. “Ohtani is a big guy and the repeated pickoff attempts could have worn him down.”

Starting last season, pitchers are only allowed to lift the ball off the rubber twice. If they attempt a third attempt without stopping the runner, it is considered a balk. But despite that rule – and the larger bases, which players say have had little impact – only three players stole 50 bases last season, and only Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz has done so this season.

Baseball can change the rules, but not the risk-averse nature of the modern game. Two of the last four Dodgers with 50 steals in a season (Steve Sax in 1983 and Eric Young Jr. in 1999) had success rates of less than 70 percent.

“I ask a couple of guys today, 'Hey, man, why aren't you stealing more? The bag is bigger, they can only throw it over twice,'” said Pierre, who had a 75.1 percent success rate in his career but led the league in being caught stealing seven times.

“And their biggest problem — and this isn't from the team, this is from the guy — is they say, 'If I get thrown out, it's going to hurt my WAR, so I don't want to take the risk.' Wow, I never thought of that. Those stats didn't even exist when I was playing, maybe at the end of my career. But here (Ohtani) says, 'If I want to steal a base, I'm going to do it.'”

For Anderson, Ohtani's success rate – 48 of 52, or 92.3 percent – is most notable. Only two players in history (Max Carey in 1922 and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2013) have stolen 50 balls in a season without being caught at least five times.

“If he doesn't steal another base this whole year, 47 and 4 – that's unusual in the history of this game,” Anderson said last week before Ohtani stole his 48th base. “I mean, 40 and 10 is great, and he's 47 and 4. That's Carlos Beltran stuff.”

Beltran — who had 312 steals in his career with an 86.4 percent success rate — peaked with 42 steals in 2004 and 41 home runs two years later. With today's disengagement rules, Anderson said, Beltran could have potentially had a 50/50 season. But the best candidate may have been Eric Davis.

Davis had everything except stamina. After a 1986 season for Cincinnati with 27 home runs and 80 steals, he hit 37 home runs with 50 steals in 1987. But in his 17-year career, Davis never played more than 135 games. His best years were spent on the unforgiving artificial turf of Riverfront Stadium.

“It was a double-edged sword because that old turf is the best thing you've ever had for stealing bases,” Anderson said. “You're so much faster with that little artificial turf on top of the cement. It's tough, but it's definitely a faster track.”

Primitive pitches are long gone, of course, and Dodger Stadium has natural grass. Ohtani's spikes never touch him in fair territory because he never plays defense, but that presents its own challenges as a base stealer.

“He doesn't have to run on the field and be exposed to the elements, but what he does would be tough in my opinion – sitting and then going out and running,” Pierre said. “I'm sure he rides his bike and does his drills, but it's still not like you're going to be relaxed on defense.”

No pitching, no fielding, no AstroTurf, no endless pickoff attempts—it doesn't matter. For those with the strength or speed to put a 50 on their stat sheet, it's still an amazing feat to use both skills so powerfully at the same time.

And remember: All those home runs also cost Ohtani some steals.

“When you hit 50 home runs, you have to put 50 fewer bases on the field,” Pierre said. “He just trots, so he's good.”

Pierre laughed. The Dodgers are in Miami this week, not far from Pierre's home. He's never seen Ohtani play and thinks he might check out the show.

“It almost makes you jealous, how could you be so fast and then hit the ball 500 feet?” said Pierre, who hit 18 home runs in 14 seasons. “What he's doing is just not fair. He's literally changing the game.”

(Top photo by Shohei Ohtani: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)