The Orioles' magic number to win WC1 keeps dropping, even if they lose games

Hello friends.

Whatever is going on with the Orioles, changing their walkup music on Tuesday didn't solve the problem. Nor did firing struggling veteran Craig Kimbrel on Wednesday, nor did allowing dogs into the stadium for Wednesday's game. Of course, none of these measures would solve anything. The only thing that will solve the problem is for the Orioles' hitters to get their heads together and get back to performing. This has been plaguing them for months now, and it's getting worse in September.

Last night, the Orioles actually managed to score three runs, which is basically a week's worth of offense. That wasn't enough, because Dean Kremer allowed a ton of runs, and there was the usual inexplicable defensive blunder. On Wednesday, it was James McCann who didn't plant his foot on home plate when he caught a ball home that would have been a forceout. How did he mess that up? That's another mystery for the Orioles in September 2024. For more of the not-so-pretty totals, check out John Beers' recap of the game.

You can't list enough negatives about the Orioles right now. There are more and more. They now have a .500 record in baseball, dating back to May 27, when they were 34-18. They've been well under .500 for half a baseball season, having gone 37-44 in their last 81 games. This terrible month continues unabated. The team, as a group, is proving incapable of breaking out of whatever is wrong. It's unclear if they've even identified what's wrong. It's too bad that's the case.

All of the above happened and is true, and this also applies: The Orioles lost no ground last night on their closest rivals chasing the first wildcard spot. The Royals were swept by the Tigers and the Twins lost to the Guardians. That leaves the standings as is, with the Orioles holding a 2.5-game lead over the Royals (WC2) and 4 games over the Twins (WC3). However, since the Tigers are also the next non-wildcard team – just half a game behind Minnesota – that means the Orioles' magic number to “win it all” has remained the same at six.

These other teams are running out of chances to get past the Orioles. The O's have just ten games left, and it may turn out they only need to win three of them to end up as the home wild card team. I say “just” three games, but lately it seems almost impossible for the Orioles to win even one. Still, the magic number to win WC1 is really just seven – Orioles wins plus Royals losses. “Not getting swept in any of the remaining series” is probably enough for them.

Of these pursuers, only the Twins are playing today, ending their series at 1:10 against the Guardians.

The Orioles will look to avoid a sweep one way or another with a 1:05 game to close out their series against the Giants this afternoon. Their recently pathetic lineup will have no easy task facing solid innings-eater Logan Webb. The good news is that Zach Eflin is pitching for the Orioles. He will have to be perfect if the Orioles want any chance of winning.

Around the BlogO'sphere

Feedback from Hyde on the decision to DFA Kimbrel (School of Roch)
Hyde sounds like he had a lot of respect for Kimbrel's career accomplishments, but knew that just wasn't the case here – and that's basically what we all saw.

O's Corbin Burnes on Kimbrel's DFA (Steve Melewski)
Not surprisingly, players like Burnes had a lot of respect for Kimbrel.

Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías begin rehab on Thursday (The Baltimore Sun)
Is this a too little, too late situation? It looks like we're about to find out.

What will Grayson Rodriguez's return look like? (Orioles.com)
There is speculation that Rodriguez will end up in the bullpen, but that also falls into the category of “too little, too late.”

From birdbaths to cucumbers to second grade: Baltimore is in the mood for sports (The Baltimore Banner)
An alternate headline in this browser tab begins, “The O's 'go to bed,'” which is painful to read but also entirely true.

Orioles Birthdays and Anniversaries

Several former Orioles were born on this day. These include: pitcher DL Hall (2022-23), infielder Danny Valencia (2013/18), first baseman Nick Johnson (2012), reliever Randy Myers (1996-97) and pitcher Bob Hurley (1954).

Is it your birthday today? Happy birthday! Your birthday friends include: Baseball Hall of Famer Duke Snider (1926), Baseball Hall of Famer Joe Morgan (1943), actor Jeremy Irons (1948), author NK Jemisin (1972), and musicians Tegan and Sara Quin (1980).

On this day in history…

In 634, the city of Damascus fell to the Arab forces of Khalid ibn al-Walid after a siege of about a month. It was the first major city of the Byzantine Empire to fall into Arab hands, but certainly not the last.

In 1356, the English defeated the French at the Battle of Poitiers, a clash in the Hundred Years' War in which the French king John II was captured by the English. A treaty ending this part of the war and giving the English control over much of French territory was not concluded until four years later.

In 1870, the Prussian army began the siege of Paris, which led to the city's surrender four months later.

**

And that's how it will be at Birdland on September 19th. Have a safe Thursday. Go O's!